The political carnage may be over, but the headwinds are just beginning. Wayne Gerdes – CleanMPG – July 24, 2025 2025 Tesla Model Y Moving beyond the Cyber “Flop”, Q2 earnings missed estimates for second straight print in a row. Namely, top line revenue of $22.50 billion fell short of the $22.74 billion expected by 1% and bottom-line earnings per share of 40 cents fell short of 43 cents expected by 7%. Net income fell to $1.17 billion in Q2, from $1.4 billion in Q2 of 2024. Two fundamental headwinds will bare their teeth beginning on Sept. 30th when the Federal Tax credit of $7,500 will disappear on new Model 3 and Model Ys and two, Tesla's regulatory credit revenue will begin to dwindle toward 0 through 2026 as the Trump administration has effectively dismantled CAFE credits by removing penalties for non-compliance. Between 2016 and Q2 of 2025, these credits generated $11.7 billion in revenue, $882 million in the first two quarters of 2025 alone. Considering Tesla’s automotive business’ lower sales volumes and shrinking margins, near term higher MSRPs to the U.S. consumer will be necessary to cover imported parts like motor magnets with the added tariff and no federal incentives will make it even more onerous. The removal of the regulatory credits could mean actual losses vs profits in Q4 2025 and beyond. Tesla closed at 332.56 prior to the Q2 ER. Tesla closed at 305.30, down 8.2% the following day. Tesla said it added more than 2,900 net new Supercharging stalls, an 18% increase from a year earlier with 7,377 total Supercharger stations within its charging network. Not Full Self Driving Update In June, Tesla began testing its robotaxi service in Austin, TX, which operates in a limited area with a human safety minder sitting in the front passenger seat. Along with numerous recorded challenges including getting stuck in parking lots, speeding, and not staying within lanes, in early July, a robotaxi rider recorded an incident after he had exited the vehicle in which the car steered into another car and tapped it before the safety minder could stop it. The robotaxi's safety monitor then moved to the driver's seat and drove off. WAYMO Jaguar I-Pace I snapped this pic of a WAYMO Autonomous Robotaxi in Los Angeles, California just a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, Google’s Waymo is running driverless taxis’s in five cities: Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, and Atlanta with expansion planned for Miami and Washington DC soon. They will also be reducing the vehicle costs by moving away from Jaguar iPaces to Hyundai Ioniq 5s before year end with the video, lidar, and radar hardware installed after delivery. Q2 2025 Tesla US Sales Overview Tesla reported Q2 2025 US sales of 143,535 vehicles, down 12.6% below the 164,264 sold in Q2 of 2024. Tesla Q2 2025 US Sales Highlights Model Y: 86,120 sold, down 15.0% below the 101,301 sold in Q2 of 2024. YTD sales of 150,171 were down 24.2% below the 198,030 sold through the same period of 2024 Model 3: 48,803 sold, up 14.3% over the 42,710 sold in Q2 of 2024. YTD sales of 101,323 were up 37.8% above the 73,552 sold through the same period of 2024 Cybertruck: 4,306 sold, down 50.8% over the 8,755 sold in Q2 of 2024. YTD sales of 10,712 were down 7.3% below the 11,558 sold through the same period of 2024 Model X: 2,871 sold, down 56.3% below the 6,570 sold in Q2 of 2024. YTD sales of 6,714 were down 44.9% below the 12,177 sold through the same period of 2024 Model S: 1,435 sold, down 70.9% below the 4,928 sold in Q2 of 2024. YTD sales of 2,715 were down 70.3% below the 9,134 sold through the same period of 2024 US Q2 2025 Automotive Sales Overview A recap of the overall sales results can be found here: US Q2 2025 Automobile Sales: 4.19 million Vehicles, up 2.2% vs Q2 of 2024
Hi All: Tesla created a longer Model Y called Model Y L in China for their domestic market. The Model Y L is a six-seat version of its best-selling Model Y with a longer wheelbase. The six-seat SUV measures 196 inches in length, 75.6 inches width, and 65.7 inches tall, with a wheelbase of 119.7 inches. This compares to the current Model Y at 188.9 inches in length. This compares to the current five-seat Model Y at 188.9 inches in length, 75.6 inches width, and 63.9 inches tall, and with a wheelbase of 113.8 inches. It will be equipped with a slightly larger LG 82 kWh Li-ion pack offering essentially the same range as its Model Y counterpart. The second and third row are electrically controlled and can be folded flat independently. The front two rows of seats have ventilation, the second-row seats are equipped with electric armrests, and all seats have seat heaters. Tesla Chinese sales fell 8.4% in July as Chinese competitors continue to offer lower-priced EVs with more standard equipment. A longer-range, RWD Model 3 is also coming to the Chinese market. The Chinese Tesla Model Y L starts at $47,180 in China, 8% higher than the std. Model Y with first deliveries scheduled for September. It will arrive with a larger LG 82 kWh Li-ion. Wayne
Here's a good article on a Chinese luxury AEV. I of course want the 1500HP version he mentions. But for the money it's a steal although it may be subsidized by their government.
Hi Edwin: Indeed. From Europe, the Tesla moniker is more than just a mess in August... August Tesla sales in France were down 47.3% from Aug. 2024, down 84% in Sweden, down 42% in Denmark, down 50% in the Netherlands, and down 4.4% in Italy. Norway experienced a 21.3% increase while China's BYD experienced sales up 218% in that country. Spain, with $8,200 subsidies saw Tesla's sales up 161% while BYD's were up more than 400%. When Musk bankrolled Trump's U.S. presidential election last year and promoted far-right parties in Europe, it was only a matter of time. Wayne
Tesla shares are still significantly over-valued, IMO. When they didn't have significant competition, maybe the stock prices could be justified, but now the company is still valued nearly 4x more than Toyota, which makes significantly more cars. Musk is promoting self-driving (already behind other companies) and redirecting attention to his humanoid robots but with his history of promising things long before they actually show up, that seems pretty risky. He's been building up new EV factories that are likely going to be idle much of the time. At some point it will be another Enron I think.
Hi Nerfer: I agree but betting against the megalomaniac is a bet fraught with danger in terms of ones personal financial decline. Just the other day, the Tesla board proposed a new compensation agreement for Musk potentially worth almost $1 trillion. The long-awaited proposal and ambitious benchmarks for full payout include expanding Tesla’s nascent robotaxi business to 1-million vehicles on the road, and growing the company’s market cap to at least $8.5 trillion from todays $1.10 Trillion USD. The plan has a 10 year time horizon. What frosts me is why? If he is the CEO of Tesla, X, SpaceX, The Boring Company, and Neuralink. He yammers on about living at a location doing 16 to 18-hour days yet is in charge of 5 companies? So does he spend 3-hours on each per day or is it less? So let us throw out a stupid level of incentive because it will make him work harder? Harder on what? On the valuation front, Tesla's (TSLA) $1.1T market cap dwarfs the total market cap of the "next top 10" Auto OEMs ($749-billion) by a huge margin as shown in the following list: Global Auto Makers Market Cap as of 09/05/2025 excl. TSLA. Toyota - $313-billion VW - $64.4-billion BMW - $63.6-billion Honda - $60-billion Mercedes-Benz - $59.6-billion GM - $55.5-billion Hyundai/Kia - $39.6-billion Ford - $28.1-billion Stellantis - $26.1-billion BYD - $13-billion Considering Friday's close, YTD, TSLA settled at $350.84 down $53 or -13.1% for the year. That is not a good sign when compared to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ which are up 10.2% and 12.4% respectively. 09/05/2025 - TSLA YTD Stock Price Chart The longer term (YTD/1-day) TSLA chart (shown) shows a solid foundation and the short term (1-day/5-min) looks even better although I cannot/will not invest in this company. Wayne
Hi All: In other TELSA news, Tesla August US market share drops to 38%, the lowest result since 2017 as buyers chose electric vehicles from numerous rivals over the aging lineup offered by Tesla. The EV sales increases should continue through September and then fall precipitously once the Federal Tax credits expire on Sept. 30th. Tesla's latest focus is the failing robotaxis with safety drivers moved to behind the wheel after last months drive into an oncoming vehicle. And humanoid robots, delaying and cancelling plans for cheaper electric vehicle models. Adding insult to injury, Tesla was added to the S&P 500 index prior to the open of trading on Monday, December 21, 2020 at a price of $222.08 (adjusted for the 5 for 1 stock split to today). Since that opening at $222.08, TSLA has increased $124.32 to $346.40, up 55.9% in just over 4.75 years. The S&P 500 began trading on that day at 3,816.22 and closed at 6,495.15 today, up 70.2% not including the 2.2 to 1.2 percent annual dividends yields which TSLA does not offer. Same 4.75 years and your every day, std. S&P 500 index fund proved to be far more lucrative and far less volatile over this period. Oh well. Wayne
Hi All: Forgetting about fundamentals, Tesla (TSLA), just like my thoughts on Lucid (LCID) at $16.17 last Thursday and a week later it closed at $19.90, up 23.1%, TSLA is forming very similar short term bullish behavior. The short term (1-day/5-min), intermediate (3-month/1-day), and longer term (1 yr./1-day) 5-day EMA, 9-day EMA, 13-day EMA, 20-day SMA, 50-day, and 200-day crosses and directions are all pointing upward, everything is still within their BBs, intermediate and longer term RSIs are still below overbought, are all positive. The MACD is not confirming a breakout so that one will have to be watched. In any case, I cannot touch it but some of you may want to take a look. 09/11/2025 - TSLA 1-day/3-month/1-year Stock Price Chart(s) with Indicators PS: Google Finance just revamped their entire financial lookup site with a beta that takes them to the modern era. Although I have only used it for a day, it has some positives for fast company lookups. Good Luck Wayne
Hi All: Tesla European EV registrations fell 22.5% to 14,831 vehicles in August compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, total European EV registrations rose 26.8% in August, with overall vehicle registrations regardless of powertrain up 4.7%. August’s European results marks the eighth straight month of declining Tesla sales on the continent. Tesla also continues to send out their promo e-mails: ********************* ********************* Add NOT-Full Self-Driving (Supervised), Get 0% APR With NOT Full Self-Driving (Supervised), your Cybertruck can drive itself almost anywhere, making lane changes, navigating around vehicles and parking itself under your active supervision. Purchase or transfer* Full Self-Driving (Supervised) to your new Cybertruck AWD or Long Range and get 0% APR financing for up to 60 months when you order by September 30, 2025. And if you take delivery from our inventory by September 30, 2025, you’ll also get a year of free Supercharging. ********************* ********************* Not FSD (Supervised), Supercharging and More Cybertruck is ready for immediate delivery. Order from our inventory and you’ll get 1 year of free Supercharging. And when you take delivery of a new Cyberbeast, you’ll receive our Luxe Package—complete with Full Self-Driving (Supervised), Supercharging and Premium Connectivity—plus four years of Premium Service. ********************* ********************* Federal Tax Credit Expiring September 30 Ordering and taking delivery of a qualifying Tesla vehicle by September 30, 2025, is the surest way to get the $7,500 tax credit applied at delivery, if eligible. ********************* ********************* Get Whole-Home Backup with Powerwall The size of your home, your average daily energy usage, and the number of days you’d like backup coverage for will determine how much storage you need. All you need is a recent electricity bill to get started. A single Powerwall can store 13.5 kWh of electricity. Each expansion unit gives you another 13.5 kWh of storage. Add up to three expansion units per Powerwall to increase your storage capacity up to 40.5 kWh as your electricity needs grow. ********************* ********************* 09/25/2025 - TSLA 1-day/1-month/1-year Stock Price Chart(s) with Basic Indicators If you own for a short-term play, it may be time to lighten up after the numerous buy signals posted on the 11th have run their course. There are a lot of negatives on the 2, 5, and 15 minute, and daily charts appearing. Wayne
Hi All: Last chance according to Tesla. Eligible Buyers—Order Now To Receive $7,500 Off 2025 Tesla Model 3 $42,490 + $1,390 D&H and $250 Order Fee not incl TTL or the $7,500 Federal TC for those that qualify. The federal tax credit expires on Tuesday, September 30, 2025. This is your last chance to get your new Model 3, Model Y or Cybertruck with $7,500 off, if eligible. If you are considering a new vehicle by the end of the year, and you meet the eligibility requirements, you must order by September 30, 2025, to receive the $7,500 federal tax credit for cash and financed purchases. If you choose to lease your vehicle, you must take delivery by September 30, 2025, to receive the $7,500 Tesla leasing incentive. Place your order before the federal tax credit ends. Wayne
