A number of unforced errors hindered early 2025 US sales. Wayne Gerdes – CleanMPG – April 16, 2025 2025 AWD Tesla Model Y Long Range $50,870 incl D&H and mats (not incl. Fed TC) + TTL while providing 327 miles of range. Since the 2024 sales results, more than a few Tesla related narratives have crossed our windscreens adding to the ongoing controversial nature of a CEO running the once revered all-electric OEM. As most know, Elon Musk embedded himself into the Trump campaign with an estimated $250-million USD donation and a story. Just three days after the Trump election win, Elon Musk was tapped to oversee a government cost-cutting effort with a self-imposed goal of cutting $2 trillion in Government spending from the $6.8 trillion federal budget. Musk stated, "I think if we try for 2 trillion, we've got a good shot at getting 1." That story quickly led to a very public late February event in which Musk walked onto a stage at a conservative C-PAC gathering outside Washington waving a large chainsaw in the air, showing openness to auditing the Federal Reserve. In just two months, he and his Dept. of Government Efficiency (DOGE) team were allowed to fire hundreds of thousands of Government employees while gaining what some call “illegal” access to IT systems controlling critical functions of the federal government including our own private personal data. With these three actions along with many others in the interim, the once admired Tesla CEO has turned into a goulash pariah to a majority of those that had over the course of the last decade vehemently supported him through their purchase of millions of Tesla automobiles and an overwhelming stream of online praise. Well, that is after all, just a branding problem, not a vehicle problem. Or is that what many of us had thought? Musk's Tesla "NOT" FSD Claims Timeline Dec. 2015 - Musk predicted “Tesla’s would have complete autonomy by 2018.” Jun. 2016 - Musk claimed, “Autonomous driving was a solved problem and that Tesla was less than two years away from complete autonomy.” Jan. 2017 - Musk was asked at what point will Full Self-Driving go active? Elon: “3 months maybe, 6 months definitely.” Just weeks later, he claimed “You will be able to fall asleep in a Tesla in just two years.” Feb. 2017 - Musk added an update on the coast-to-coast autopilot demo. “It was still on for end of year but was SW limited.” Pay attention to the HW2 part that was included in both Tesla Model S’ and Xs with cameras, forward radar, ultrasonic sensors, and a “self-driving” computer. Oct. 2017 - Musk argued, “By the end of 2018, Tesla would demonstrate a fully autonomous drive from a home in L.A. to Times Square ... without the need for a single touch, including the charging.” Mar. 2018 - Musk opined, “By end of 2019, self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person.” Nov. 2018 - Musk pronounced, “Tesla was technically able to deliver full self-driving, autonomous Tesla’s to customers doors in about a year.” Jan. 2019 - Musk stated, “We need to be at 99.9999% and be extremely reliable. When do we think it is safe for FSD? Probably towards the end of this year.” Feb. 2019 – Musk added, “We will feature complete full self-driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark. It will be essentially safe to fall asleep and wake up at their destination towards the end of next year.” Apr. 2019 – Musk maintained, “I think it will require detecting hands on wheel for at least six months... I mean, the system is improving so fast that this is going to be a moot point very soon… Maybe towards the end this year, but I say, I'd be shocked if not next year.” Also, in April of that year during a podcast interview, This one is just as important… On April 22, 2019, at Tesla's extended “Autonomy Day” presentation: During that same timeframe, he said, “Expect complete in self driving this year, and we think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window sometime probably around Q2 of 2020.” The HW3 self-driving computer was added that same month as the HW2.5 computer was found to not be capable of self-driving. Tesla began retrofitting older vehicles with the new systems for owners who purchased Tesla’s NOT ‘Full Self-Driving’ (FSD) package. May 2019 - Musk stated, “We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too.” Apr. 2020 - Musk said, “We could see robotaxis in operation with the network fleet next year, not in all markets but in some.” Jul. 2020 - Musk detailed, “I am extremely confident that level five or essentially complete autonomy will happen, and I think, will happen very quickly. I feel that we are very close to level five autonomy. I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year, there are no fundamental challenges remaining.” Dec. 2020 - Musk added, “I am extremely confident of achieving full autonomy and releasing it to the Tesla customer base next year. But I think at least some jurisdictions are going to allow full self-driving next year. I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%.” And on and on it went for another almost 5 years as Musk's continuing claims about FSD's capabilities have not been realized. Except now, all the talk and claims “may” come home to roost. It has recently come to light that Tesla may have to replace Advanced Driver Assist Systems (ADAS) computers in almost 4 million cars or compensate their owners lacking the HW necessary for their vehicles to drive autonomously. This could end up being the costliest recall claim in automotive history! In January of 2023, Model S’ and Xs were equipped with an even more powerful HW4 ADAS computer as HW3 was not powerful enough to meet the claims Musk was pushing. All in, there are settlements requiring HW 3 upgrades and there is no reason to think that the same precedents will be enforced for owners to receive HW 4 ADAS hardware. Is this the real reason Musk backed Trump with the $250-million USD? In other words, to get out of the recall and costly upgrades that would have been enforced by regulators that no longer exist? 04-16-2025 TSLA 1 year Stock Price Chart While the stock price has baselined here, the 50-day crossing the 200-day to the downside is still a large overhang. We also have the Cyber “Flop”. Many auto insurers have decided not to cover Cybertruck owners’ vehicles due to HW failures, parts falling off, extremely expensive accident repairs, and massive depreciation for vehicles that must be totaled. With the heavy depreciation, Tesla has even begun refusing to take them in on trade for other Tesla models! And about Musk’s DOGE $1 to $2 trillion USD in Federal expenditure savings, just 6-days ago after firing hundreds of thousands, Elon Musk drastically reduced the DOGE’s savings goal to just $150 billion for the year. All in, the Republican mantra to dispose of waste, fraud, and abuse in executive branch agencies turned out to be not much more than a joke as the Trump Administration in the first 4-months of 2025 has already outspent the Biden Administration by $155-billion USD. Q1 2025 Tesla US Sales Overview Tesla reported Q1 2025 US sales of 128,100 vehicles, down 8.6% below the 140,187 sold in Q1 of 2024. Tesla Q1 2025 US Sales Highlights Cybertruck: 6,406 sold, up 128.5% over the 2,803 sold in Q1 of 2024 Model 3: 52,520 sold, up 70.3% over the 30,842 sold in Q1 of 2024 Model S: 1,280 sold, down 69.6% below the 4,206 sold in Q1 of 2024 Model X: 3,843 sold, down 31.5% below the 5,607 sold in Q1 of 2024 Model Y: 64,051 sold, down 33.8% below the 96,729 sold in Q1 of 2024 US Q1 2025 Automotive Sales Overview A recap of the overall sales results can be found here: US Q1 2025 Automobile Sales: 3.91 million Vehicles Sold, up 5.7%
Hi All: Tesla is Screwing with Customer Odometers to Save On Warranty Claims Nyree Hinton, an LA resident and Tesla Model Y owner, has all but proven that his Tesla odometer is measuring driver behavior via an algorithm rather than actual mileage driven. And it is significantly over reporting that mileage for one reason and one reason only. To shorten the time his vehicle is under the Tesla warranty. Nyree's 2020 Model Y has recorded at least 15% more miles than he has traveled, and he has the receipts to prove it. His 50,000-mile basic warranty expired well ahead of schedule, leaving him with a $10,000 suspension repair bill that Tesla should have covered. After purchasing his Model Y with 37k miles on the clock, he noticed it was logging far more miles than he was driving. Since he was driving a measured 1k miles/month, there was no way that his Tesla accumulated an additional 13,228 miles per the odometer in six months of driving. With the 50k mile bumper to bumper warranty gone, he is out the additional $10k for a suspension repair that would have been covered under warranty. To put it bluntly, Tesla has been “scamming” owners of Tesla’s and Mr. Hinton is not the only one as there are as many as 1-million other Tesla owners who have been scammed in the same manner. Tesla attorneys provided no comment as expected. Can some of our US Tesla owners do some calibration runs like my own studies for each review vehicle. Google Maps, a Garmin, or SW based Mileage tracker vs the odometer to see if they can reproduce the overage on their own vehicles? Then again, if I were Tesla and knowingly adding miles to customers vehicles for the explicit purpose of voiding warranties, I would have made darn sure the latest OTAs removed any trace of code doing just that. Thanks in advance. Wayne
Hi All: And the silver lining within the hurricane called Tesla? Well, there is none but the Long Range, single motor, RWD Cybertruck will be available for $72,235 incl. D&H and order fee in 6 to 10-weeks. 2025 Tesla Cybertruck 350-mile range, 7,500 lb. tow cap, and the 0 to 60 dash in 6.2 seconds That is the good news. The bad news? Oh boy... A major recall was issued due to the potential for exterior panels to detach while driving A recall was initiated for a potential fault in the electric inverter that could cause the drive wheels to lose power A recall was issued due to a potential for the accelerator pedal to malfunction, leading to unintended acceleration Recalls have been issued for software problems incl. the rearview camera display remaining blank after shifting into reverse Some owners have reported rust and corrosion on the stainless-steel body Some owners after having removed the wrap they installed have found stainless steel panels permanently blemished Some owners have reported major high voltage errors and faults, leading to a bricked vehicle The stainless-steel construction has resulted in noticeable panel gaps, which vary significantly from truck to truck The design makes it challenging to clean and maintain, with some owners finding it hard to bring back the "like new" sheen No spare Some owners have found it difficult to access the bed and remove items from it Lack of an outlet in the frunk Large wiper blade has been criticized for its performance in light rain The wheels lack center caps, which some owners find aesthetically unappealing. No Homelink No Apple CarPlay or Android Auto Owners have reported the truck struggles in inclement weather and car washes, with one owner even saying it was "dangerous" to drive in snow Hitch is attached to a cast aluminum frame leading to catastrophic failure of the hitch under stress for some Oh, and of course what we reported last month, multiple sources confirm that Tesla is currently not accepting Cybertrucks as trade-in vehicles due to a significant unsold inventory of new Cybertrucks. Go figure. Wayne
Hi All: With over 1-million CyberTruck (CT) reservations touted by Tesla in 2024 and having sold just 45,369 (38,965 in 2024 + 6,404 through the end of March 2025) since production began in November of 2023, the company began shifting Austin, TX employees to the Model Y line as CT inventory begins to balloon. With possibly as many as 2,400 unsold units parked in fields and lots nationwide, the $200-million of unsold inventory is beginning to cloud initial rosy sales projections of both the CT and the rest of the lineup. The CTs design miscues and initial $39,900 price tags vs the $90k + actual retail prices pre-destined the CT for an abysmal outcome. With Musk's far right political activity, the truck may in fact be doomed as 2025 turns into 2026 and 2026 turns into 2027. A better choice? 2025 Ford Lightning The 4WD Flash trim with 320-miles range is a real truck for doing real work and starts at just under $69k incl D&H. Wayne
I just watched this, it was pretty interesting. I'm sure that there will eventually be people with overloaded or unbalanced trailers, who hit potholes with bad results.
Hi Mike: I first saw this when someone hooked a backhoe to a hitch of a CT and the same backhoe to the hitch of an already broken RAM 2500. The backhoe added mass vertically to the hitch to the point of catastrophic separation about a month ago. It was a brutal vid for the CT while the beat up 3/4 Ton RAM did not break. It has been over 40 years since I had a materials class, but S/N cycle limits was a very significant and focused portion of the class. While geared towards airframes cycle limits due to the preponderance and mandatory use of aluminum during construction, various steels were always highlighted for having the flat endurance limit in which they could essentially maintain structural integrity forever if below the fatigue limit of the design. Wayne
Hi All: Meanwhile, there may be a very costly decision-making problem in which Musk dismissed any discussion or CapEx for the long rumored $25k Model (2?) vs the all-in bet on Robotaxi with no wheel and essentially no resale value for anyone including Tesla. Much of Tesla’s growth strategy and its sky-high valuation is due in part to Musk's continuing reliance on a sometime in the future, self-driving tech through its autonomous Cybercab. Remember from previous posts that over the past 7 years, Robotaxi capability via a current model or an actual "future" CyberTaxi itself is just a promise to be coming months ahead and to date, it has not materialized. Leaked internal analysis shows that the Robotaxi "MAY" never be profitable even if Tesla had somehow perfected it??? Go figure. Outside of that, with UNH falling 22.4% last Friday, the DJIA was the last major index to breach its Devils Cross - 50-day falling beneath the 200-day SMA. Of the MAG 7, 5 of the 7 have also fallen through. Meaning Alphabet (-20.1% YTD), Apple (-21.4% YTD), Microsoft (-12.7% YTD), Nvidia (-24.5% YTD), AND Tesla (-40.2% YTD) have a very troublesome price action/outlook over the next few months or longer. Amazon (-21.3% YTD) and Meta (-14.4% YTD) are the only two soldiers left standing while awaiting orders to walk into a "Pickett's Charge" Devils Cross scenario. MACD, RSI, moving averages crossing(s) and directions are not looking good for anything but at least TSLA's 20 and 200-day have an upward trend to them while it and many others hover in this tenuous mess of a market awaiting a DJT tweet or the next Government report. Wayne
Hi All: Tesla will release their Q1 2025 Earnings results after market close this afternoon. Musk had a response on X about the odometer racking up miles via algorithm vs actual miles traveled. Meanwhile, some of the e-mails I have received from Tesla... *********** *********** Avoid High Energy Costs with Solar and Powerwall Last summer, monthly electricity bills for California residents reached an average of $215—a 50% increase from the first half of the year.* Avoid high electricity bills this summer by generating your own energy with solar. Add Powerwall to store excess solar energy for nighttime use or sell it back to the grid to help your system pay for itself faster. *********** *********** Premium Materials, Immersive Sound Step into Model Y and enjoy wraparound lighting, soft-touch textiles and ventilated front seats. Drive off to any song with sixteen hidden speakers and an acoustic glass cabin for studio-quality sound—all under a panoramic glass roof that helps protect you from UV rays. *********** *********** You Can Forget Your Keys With Phone Key, you can walk up, and your Tesla automatically unlocks. Go around to the trunk, and it opens for you. Get in, press the brake pedal and your Tesla is ready to drive. No doors to unlock, no ignition to start—no key required when you have Phone Key. *********** *********** A Few More Days to Save $7,000 Order solar and Powerwall by April 20, 2025, to get 3.99% APR financing and save an average of $7,000 on installation.* Order now or schedule a virtual consultation with a Tesla Advisor to learn more. *********** *********** Longest Range, Lowest Price Enjoy adaptive suspension, a studio-quality sound system and up to 362 est. miles of range* on a single charge with a soft tonneau. Cybertruck Long Range starts at $62,490** after the federal tax credit. 362 est. miles requires 18” wheels and correct installation and usage of the soft tonneau - sold separately. **Cybertruck Long Range starts at $72,235 including Order and Destination Fees, excluding taxes, other fees. *********** *********** Start Saving with Solar and Powerwall Electricity rates for SDG&E customers in California have increased by 3% this year.* With solar and Powerwall, you can generate, use and store your own energy, reducing your reliance on your utility company and saving you money on your electricity bills. You may also be eligible for a 30% Federal Investment Tax Credit on your system.** Order now or schedule a virtual consultation with a Tesla Advisor to learn more. *********** *********** Model Y has been redesigned to maximize efficiency, range and comfort. Get all-new front and rear lightbars, wrap-around ambient cabin lighting and a much quieter ride. Now available in our newest Model Y trim starting at $41,490 after the federal tax credit.* * Model Y starts at $50,630 including Order and Destination Fees, excluding taxes, other fees *********** *********** Model 3 and Model Y are manufactured with an updated suspension for easier handling and steering that is more responsive to your touch. And with updated wheels and tire options, your ride will be smoother and quieter. Wayne
Hi All: Tesla Q1 2025 Earnings Slammed A two-door, 2-passenger autonomous rideshare vehicle. I doubt that will work either. Q1 2025 top line revenues of $13.967 billion USD were down 19.6% from the $17.378 billion achieved in Q1 of 2024. A miss. Q1 2025 bottom line earnings of $409 million were down 70.6% below the $1.39 billion USD earned in the same quarter a year ago. If it were not for the emissions credits earned from other automakers - $595-million USD in Q1 2025, up 34.1% over the $442 million USD earned in the same quarter a year ago, they would have posted a quarterly loss. In other words, another miss. Along with the earnings hit, margins were down to just 2.1%. This used to be in the low 30s just 3 years ago, then low 20's, then low teens and now Tesla is barely profitable. This is not a good situation with CT Foundation sales rolling over too much lower price vehicles that are simply no longer selling. The onetime income gain from the CT push is gone. A small plus from the Q1 2025 release was the company’s energy generation and storage units taking in $1.945 billion USD, up 57.9% over the $1.232 billion USD of products and services sold in the same quarter a year ago. Tesla is still the most valuable automaker in the world as measured by its market capitalization and aftermarket activity shows essentially no change after the damning report. China sales are rolling over and despite being the largest EV manufacturer in the US in terms of volume by far, sales here have rolled over as indicated by the headline post launching this thread. Despite the terrible earnings release, the stock is up over 3% in afterhours trading. The earnings call will begin in a few minutes, and I will hopefully hear how they are supposed to fix the terrible report. There was no full year guidance which is also very unusual. They did indicate lower priced model(s) are coming in the second half of 2025 - built or designed but not actually available to purchase??? Will it be a sub-compact Model 2, a stripped Model 3/Y, or something else altogether? If they barely make money now, how are they going to make money with lower priced model(s) built off the same platforms? The autonomous discussion is alive and well but how long have I pointed out Musk's "Pump and Dump" BS. They also indicated its Robotaxi will arrive in June. Yeah, maybe but more than likely, not. Wayne
Hi All: From the earnings call, starting next month, Musk said he will spend much less time with DOGE and more time with Tesla and his other 4 businesses. The Austin launch of Robotaxi in June is on schedule as well. After hours trading shows the stock up almost 4%. Wayne
Hi All: Stating the obvious while trying to hock their wares via e-mail. We’re Accelerating the Transition to Sustainable Energy <-- So is everybody else. Wayne
Hi All: To begin the Q1 2025 Investor call, Musk ranted on about Govt. waste, fraud, and abuse and why protesters were out was because they will no longer receive waste fraud and abuse. WTH??? The reality as has been explained in other posts is that his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is not even close to meeting the estimates that DOGE could reduce federal spending by $2 trillion, later revised to $1 trillion. Now, the latest projection is just $150 billion, a dramatic downgrade of 85% from the previous target. Even this reduced estimate is being questioned, as reports suggest DOGE may be overstating its progress by including billion-dollar errors and counting spending reductions that might not happen at all. Some critics argue that DOGE is spinning its wheels rather than achieving meaningful savings while the administration is spending far more than the estimated $90 billion in savings after firing hundreds of thousands of Govt. employees. Tesla Q1 2025 Earnings Call He also stated the following: So he has to run Tesla, SpaceX, The Boring Company, Neuralink, xAI, and of course twitter(X)? Future of Tesla The team is focused on Robotaxi to Austin in June. <-- They have not made it work after 7-years of trying so is this just another Musk promise? They are making good progress on Optimus (the robots) ... Musk was confident they can build in millions per year in maybe 4 years. 2029 or 2030. But... The Energy business is doing well... GW class battery will be commonplace. This should scale to TW. He also stated the value of the company will be 5 times the next 5 largest companies combined. That would mean 5X larger than the following: AAPL ($3.1 trillion USD) MSFT ($2.8 trillion USD) NVDA ($2.5 trillion USD) AMZN ($1.9 trillion USD) GOOGL ($1.9 Trillion USD) $12.2 Trillion USD * 5 = $61-trillion USD or 77 times higher than Tesla's current 790-billion market cap. Regarding the company indicating it will be releasing a low-cost model, is this yet another pump and dump statement? With a 2% automotive margin and much of any profit from the auto business coming from the 6,000+ CTs they sold in Q1 for a ridiculous amount of customers $s and whose remnants - 2,400+ vehicles, are parked on lots all over the country, how is a "low cost" vehicle going to arrive? Plus living off the Govt. emissions credits, what can they cut out of a $44,130 Model 3 or $50,630 Model Y to get it down to $25k? $30k? $40k? The wheels and fenders? Musk is turning more and more into a circus act then an entrepreneur. Wayne
Hi All: Tesla is currently testing its “supposedly” autonomous ride-hail service but not autonomously as there are Tesla employees behind “a wheel” of Model 3s in Austin prior to the expected robotaxi rollout in June. Tesla said they will start with 10 to 20 vehicles on Day 1. The disclaimer being that all of this could be Musk’s making $**t up as he has been known to do thousands of times over the past few years. Yesterday Tesla posted a vid of a rideshare hail of a Model 3 with a driver and an emergency stop button in the back seat. Tesla has been granted limited rideshare approval to move its own employees in the Bay area before expanding to the public in company-owned vehicles. Tesla said on Wednesday. It has done more than 1,500 trips and completed 15,000 miles of driving. For the ride-hailing service, Tesla plans to eventually use a purpose-built two-seater <-- Stupid, stupid, stupid, vehicle called a Cybercab, which has no steering wheel or pedals. Tesla reported its latest NOT-FSD SW has traveled 10,000 miles between interventions, but the Tesla community is reporting 37 city miles per intervention today. This Tesla released result is far below rates for human drivers, who have small dings every 100,000 miles, insurance claims every 250,000 miles, and police-reported accidents every 500,000 miles. As a comparison, Waymo reported 17,000 miles between interventions in 2023 and they did that in far more dense cityscapes of San Francisco and LA. It is not known what classification these Tesla interventions belong to. Waymo recently had an independent audit reporting it has an accident that was the Waymo’s fault every 2.3 million miles. All the while with autonomous vehicles on the road today taking on 200k rideshare requests per week. A safety intervention every 10,000 miles would mean they need years before actual autonomous deployment and a few more beyond that to scale up. Wayne
Hi All: Last week, Tesla’s VP of SW engineering, David Lau announced he is leaving the company after more than 12 years. He was responsible for the coding of powertrain firmware, traction and stability controls systems, battery management, vehicle body control, and the user interface. That last one has been globally panned as one of the worst in the industry. Peter Winberg, Chief engineer for crash safety left in March after more than 14 years with the company. This has been going on for years of course but an anecdote comes to mind. The workers are departing Jonestown before the Kool-Aid arrives. Wayne
Hi All: Despite the atrocious earnings report, Tesla shareholders received a gift in the form of a healthy stock price increase in part due to his announcement during the earnings call that he was leaving the wreckage that DOGE created in his rearview. Part time anyway? And of course, bulls placing their best on the continuing 7-year promise of FSD. In the three full days of trading since the earnings went live, TSLA is up 19.7% to close the week out at $284.95 04-26-2025 TSLA 1 year Stock Price Chart In other news which may be of interest to Canadians, Tesla will raise prices on any Tesla models imported into Canada after DJT’s March 26th announcement and Canada’s 25% counter tariff announced on April 4th. The company encourages buyers to purchase vehicles in country prior to the tariff announcement date. Tesla’s Canadian website has introduced a pre-tariff sales banner stating the obvious. Pricing for new Tesla’s were higher than for the same models listed as being in inventory. For example, the sticker price of Model 3 AWD LR was listed as $79,990 CAN/$57,607 USD for a new order, but those same 2025 Model 3s already in inventory were being offered for $69,000 CAN/$49,692 USD, up 15.9%. Wayne
