From Cars to Semi’s and portable/stationary power generation is the new focus. Wayne Gerdes – CleanMPG – July 16, 2024 2021 Toyota Mirai Just minutes after completing an 845-mile drive without refueling. In 2001, Toyota began hydrogen research and development in the U.S. with a staff of just 5-employees. Since then, the U.S. team has have helped design and test 5 generations of fuel cell drivetrains culminating in a World Record range for fuel cell vehicles from the 2nd gen Mirai. For much of those 2 plus decades, the Gardena, CA facility supported or initiated a wide range of fuel cell electric projects including supporting the development of the Mirai. This continuous development and improvement was for the most part, directed toward light duty vehicles like the 1st and 2nd gen Mirai. But a funny thing happened. In 2017, Toyota allowed their engineers to run with the Mirai drivetrain and build upon it into several interesting vehicles and platforms. Toyota’s Fuel Cell Development team proved the scalability of Toyota’s fuel cell technology after it acquired a Class 8 truck and refitted it with a fuel cell electric powertrain consisting of two Mirai fuel-cell stacks. This effort then led to a collaboration with Kenworth to build 10 proof-of-concept trucks used to support the “Shore to Store” project that proved the viability of hydrogen-powered fuel cells in heavy-duty applications. Toyota now supply’s the fuel cell powertrain kits from the Kentucky plant as a Tier 1 supplier to Kenworth. The 2nd Gen Mirai drivetrain cutaway before being converted to any number of power production uses. Why a Fuel Cell? When provided a clean source of H2, a Fuel Cell outputs a lot of power in the form of electricity with the only onboard emission being warm water. There is no carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM); or volatile organic compounds (VOC) produced. None. CO2 emissions can be reduced to almost unmeasurable depending on the H2 sources derivation. Not only is this low to near emissions free power able to propel a car down the road and refuel in under 5-minutes, but a Fuel Cell can also provide scalable power to whatever specification a designer imagines simply by inserting more cells into the power production design. There are also no oil changes, valve adjustments, belt replacements, or any other maintenance related to a gasoline or diesel fueled internal combustion engine either. In other words, a Fuel Cell’s promise is to provide a clean source of power for propulsion and portable/stationary energy production that can be quickly implemented just about anywhere with far less investment than your typical power plant. That is the promise anyway… A Toyota bZ4X and RAV4 Prime being charged from a stationary, Mirai Fuel Cell powered, electrical production unit fed from 8 bottles of H2. Toyota’s H2 Push Continues Toyota strongly reaffirmed its commitment to support fuel cell and additional hydrogen-related products and technology toward a hydrogen economy with human resources and financial investment. That decision began with the company renaming the Toyota Technical Center (TTC) to “North American Hydrogen Headquarters” (H2HQ). The offices were recently redesigned to expand the R&D through to commercialization, planning, and sales of H2-related products and technologies. Last year, Toyota reorganized its H2 business in Japan to create a “Hydrogen Factory” with the idea to bring all hydrogen-related work under one location and accelerate customer-oriented product development and production in fuel cell or hydrogen-related products. Soon after, Toyota Europe announced its own “Hydrogen Factory” with the aim to further grow Toyota’s hydrogen business and stimulate wider roll-out of hydrogen ecosystems and infrastructure across Europe. Built onsite from 4 Mirai drivetrains, this Class-8 Semi has an empty range of 450+ miles. At 82k lbs loaded, 300+ miles can be expected. H2HQ will drive the North American-led hydrogen initiatives and support standards integration of global hydrogen-related technologies and products that include light-duty fuel cell applications, heavy-duty fuel cell opportunities, stationary fuel cell power generation, port vehicle applications and more. The Gardena, CA facility already includes Toyota’s largest dynamometer (1.2 MW), a scalable test bench for stationary applications, and an onsite hydrogen refueling station capable of providing fuel for both light- and heavy-duty vehicles. Moreover, as part of its plans to remain and grow fuel cell leadership, NA H2HQ will be home to several new projects in the coming years. Construction has also begun on a flexible microgrid that features energy sources available today, including a 230-kW solar photovoltaic system, a 1-MW stationary proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell generator, 325-kW solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC), and an onsite 500-kWh battery energy storage system. The microgrid is designed to support the campus’ energy needs, allowing it the ability to operate “off-grid”. The system is expected to be fully operational by 2026. In June of 2023, Toyota provided a Hydrogen Fuel Cell expansion roadmap. At the conference, Mitsumasa Yamagata, President of the Toyota Hydrogen Factory, indicated that Toyota had received offers for 100,000 vehicles’ worth of fuel cells by 2030. That is a very aggressive timeline given the lack of Mirai sales as of late. At the time, the Executive team was quite clear that Fuel Cells and H2 remain far too expensive for mass implementation. To promote widespread adoption, a next-generation fuel cell system offering improved driving performance and efficiency for commercial vehicles, alongside initiatives to reduce manufacturing costs for onboard tanks was shown. On the durability front, commercial FC vehicles could stay on the road 2.5 times longer than standard diesel rigs before requiring maintenance, making them virtually maintenance-free over the life of a vehicle. Compared to current cells, Toyota’s next-generation systems also halve the cost of fabricating a stack and increase range by 20%. This improvement would make it possible to travel between Tokyo and Osaka without refueling. These highly competitive next-generation cells are slated for release in 2026. The Risk First, sales of the Mirai FCEV have been backstopped with massive Toyota, Federal, and the State of California incentives including up to $20,000 off rebates off the retail price and $15,000 fuel cards from the manufacturer. Federally, a 1st gen Mirai customer qualified for up to $8,000 in Fed tax credits and $7,500 beginning on Jan 1, 2022, through today. The State of California was adding on top of that between $4,500 and $7,500 in rebates plus HOV lane access. Those State incentives are now expired. In other words, a $50,000, 2021 Toyota Mirai XLE which is underpinned by the excellent Lexus LS platform, would cost as little as “Free” considering the $15k H2 Fuel Card adder. Just before the 1st gen Mirai was introduced, H2 cost was projected to be as low as $3.00/kg by 2020. DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program Record Unfortunately, those estimates were not only wildly optimistic, they proved to be nothing more than fantasy. In 2021, H2 was being dispensed from 700 bar facilities at a price of $15 to $16/kg. By late 2023 onward, the price has stabilized in the $36/kg range. To put today’s current H2 fuel price into perspective, a 402-mile range, 2024 Mirai XLE consumes ~ 5.5 useable kgs to drive 400 miles. At today’s $36/kg in California, a refuel from empty to full costs almost $200 or $0.50/mile. By comparison, a similarly sized 47 mpgUS combined rated 2025 Toyota Camry XLE can travel 400-miles on ~ 8.5 gallons of gasoline. At today’s average price for a gallon of gasoline in California being $4.60, the Camry costs $39 to cover the same 400-miles. The difference between $200 and $40 or $0.095/mile to cover the same distance is simply too much to overcome for ANYONE that whose Toyota fuel card has run out. That $15k fuel card incentive at $36/kg will allow a Mirai driver to refuel from empty to full 75 times or 30,000 miles. After that, the Mirai’s refueling cost becomes untenable. A $36/kg price is the norm for Mirai owners today. The second problem is the H2 refueling stations availability. From the H2 CA availability map, the few stations available indicate over 30% are currently down. On a personal basis, with the Del Mar (possibly permanently closed) and San Diego (down until further notice), I would have to drive a 68-mile RT refuel the nearest station in Orange County and return. Why the problems? Nobody seems to have the answer. Toyota is not a fuel supplier and has little pull when it comes to H2 suppliers to expand facilities or provide fuel. California itself once backed H2 with taxpayer $s and those promises have largely been curtailed or pulled. The result is Mirai sales have all but evaporated – just 20 sold in Q2 of 2024, and Mirai resale has tanked earning a very un-Toyota like characteristic as the worst residual value vehicle available in America with owners receiving just 20% of what it was worth after 5-years of ownership. In fact, I have seen low mile, 3-year Mirai’s going for just 20% of retail after less than 3-years of ownership. All said, the light duty fuel cell vehicle promise is now on hold and Toyota’s focus to Commercial and Stationary power production could prove to be prescient. I will post another story on the commercial space including much lower H2 costs soon. The following is a preview. The methane rich, biogas supply is directed into a desulfurization unit and then through steam reforming process creating up to 2.5 MW of emissions free electricity, gaseous H2, and heated water. Notice the price of H2 vs what Mirai owners are paying at non-commercial facilities across the state of California.
Solid oxide fuel cells seem to be the better path. They are more options in direct fuels, and are less picky about hydrogen quality. Purifying the gas would be more to reduce the end emissions. PEM fuel cells need research grade hydrogen, or they have a short life. A correction for the hydrogen price projection. The DOE estimate was for the cost to get the hydrogen from a production facility to the car*; it is on top of the price for hydrogen itself. Projections from around that time had the kilogram cost for centrally made green hydrogen by wind power at $5 to $6. Reformed natural gas hydrogen is around $2/kg historically. The membrane hydrogen production systems(reverse fuel cells) have promise to be cheaper than electrolysis. Which is great since we'll need green hydrogen for many things. Getting it into vehicles will always be a cost and energy sink though. Part of the price issue in California is that a production or distribution facility went down, and I don't think there is much interest in replacing it. * The model city has 10% to 15% hydrogen cars in the fleet, the production facility is 100km away, and everything is at the mass production stage.
Hi All: As a follow up to the bleak prospects of a light duty Hydrogen fueled transportation future, a class action lawsuit was filed naming Toyota as the Plaintiff and claiming - rightfully so, that H2 is for many Mirai owners, unavailable. 2024 Toyota Mirai Limited FCEV Interior Despite refueling issues, it continues to be one of the nicest "clean" vehicles I have ever driven. Class Action Lawsuit Overview: Who: A group of consumers filed a class action lawsuit against Toyota and several related H2 suppliers Why: Consumers claim Toyota falsely assured Toyota Mirai hydrogen FCEV customers that H2 would be plentiful and available Where: California federal court A group of consumers claim H2 is “more and more difficult to obtain” making leased or purchased 2021-2024 Mirai vehicles “unsafe, unreliable and inoperable,” despite Toyota’s alleged assurance to the contrary. Toyota is aware of refueling limitations for Mirai vehicles and owners argue that they are either unable to use their vehicle or have to travel long distances to find hydrogen fuel and, in many cases, are ultimately unable to find it. The claim is that Toyota is guilty of fraudulent concealment and misrepresentation and unjust enrichment and in violation of the Magnuson Moss Warranty Act and California’s Song-Beverly Consumer Warranty Act. The plaintiffs demand a jury trial and request declaratory and injunctive relief and an award of exemplary and punitive damages for themselves and all class members. Which more than likely means buy backs. Wayne
That's like Tesla owners complaining (from the grave) about their Autopilot software. Let the buyer beware. Think for a few seconds before you buy something.
