More on The All-new, 5th Gen 2023 Toyota Prius Prime

It's brilliant.

 

It might take Toyota 100kWh to reach 300 miles, but others are doing it with less.

Making more hybrids doesn't help if people aren't buying them. The Bolt was selling about as well as the previous Prius. The Model 3 outsells the Rav4 hybrid.

The real issue with that slide is the assumption that batteries will be a finite resource, but lets assume that. If the goal is to reduce carbon emissions, the best use of limited batteries would be in diesel mild hybrids. Toyota could make two to three times as many of those as the Corolla Cross hybrid.

 

If our federal government wasn't subsidizing BEV's with tax credit, maybe more people would buy HEV's.
Not sure what the answer is. But I believe that Toyota is trying to point out that big batteries use LOTs of rare
minerals , some in unfriendly countries. Keep a rebate on PHEV's , even if it's less $$$.

 

The year I checked the Model 3 vs Rav4 hybrid numbers was one in which Teslas weren't getting a federal tax credit. The Model 3 was also selling at a higher price than today, too. The Bolt was hampered more by the recall woes than a lack of federal incentive.

Hybrids being 3% of new car sales in the US was high penetration of the market for them. Usually, it is less. Gas prices seem to be a bigger influence than subsidies for them. More model choices may have helped with increasing sales, but mostly they just stole sales from the Prius. Hybrids are seen just for fuel economy, which is a tough sell in a land with cheap fuel. Toyota isn't even going to try to sell the efficiency version of the new Prius here. It is just the better performance one, that doesn't do any better than the old one at the pump.

Whereas hybrids had hit 4% share in the past, plug ins hit 6% and their segment continues to grow. This is because they offer more than a hybrid; efficiency, performance, ride quality, cutting out petroleum, etc. It would be great if people bought more hybrids, but without higher fuel prices or regulations like CAFE, it isn't likely going to happen. Of course anything that helps hybrids will also help plug ins.

The bit about mild diesel hybrids being the best came from a study that was released a few years ago. It was based on battery supplies of the time, but they have grown since then, and will continue to do so. The minerals aren't rare. Some do have social and politic concerns, but those are being addressed. That is actually part of the reason for the plug in tax credit. There is already LFP available to cut use of nickel and cobalt. CATL just announced a 500 Wh/kg battery going into production. That means half the battery minerals needed to get the range of today's EVs.

Toyota is pointing this out now, because they misread the market, and don't have the battery supply to meet the demand on the few plug ins they do have. If they had invested into battery production like the others had, finding a Rav4 Prime for MSRP would be possible today. They could have used the bZ4X for that slide, but it's more efficient than the hypothetical BEV they did use.

 

Good thoughts. Basically, the general public does not care enough about global warming and will do what is convenient and less costly in the short term. They/we need policy to drive our behavior. Sheep.

What would Elon do if he controlled gasoline prices? Hmmm, maybe raise it to the level it is at elsewhere in the world? That would accelerate migration from ICE more quickly than just producing more efficient ICE vehicles (hybrids and plug-ins). I think Toyota and other hybrid makers since 2000 did buy us a little time to fight global warming, but we're too stubborn and we like the bigger and less efficient vehicles too much. ...our own worst enemy.

re: Toyota - yes, ultimately wrong and coulda, woulda, shoulda... time to catch up!

 

You are correct…except for the phrase, “short term”.

 

All he would have to do is eliminate 10% ethanol blend fuel & replace it with 100% ethanol-free gasoline, selling for a third more.
There…..I just saved the World, in Elon Musk’s image.