Sales results look promising but the Street’s confidence is quickly eroding. Wayne Gerdes – CleanMPG – Oct. 2, 2022 2022 Tesla Model Y In the third quarter, Tesla announced that it produced over 365,000 vehicles from its factories in Fremont, CA, Austin, TX, Shanghai, China and Berlin-Brandenburg, Germany. The fast growing OEM delivered over 343,000 of them. The company stated supply-chain constraints have now moved into its vehicle transportation capacity. In Q3, Tesla began transitioning to an even regional mix of vehicle builds each week, which led to an increase in cars in transit at the end of the quarter. These cars have been ordered and will be delivered to customers upon arrival at their destination. Model: Q3 2022 Production/Deliveries Model S/X: 19,935/18,672 Model 3/Y: 345,988/325,158 Total: 365,923/343,830 The Q3 2022 production totals are up a very healthy 53% over the Q3 2021 total of 237,823 vehicles produced. With the multitude of price increases, I suspect revenues will be up by 70% which is in line with its near term expected sales growth rate albeit slowing with larger volumes. With Europen vehicle sales collapsing, China's on again, off again Covid lockdowns, and the U.S. heading into its own automotive bear market including much more potent – less expensive, all-electric competition from most major OEMs here now or arriving shortly, somebody is seeing something. After 2 weeks since the production and sales announcement, the Street appears to be tiring of Musk's charades with the Twitter buy and messing with Ukrainian sovereignty. The once hot tech segment has already collapsed but this one appears to be in its own nasty downtrend for a lot of the Tesla faithful going forward… TSLA 2 Year Stock Price Activity Ending 10/14/2022 A new 52-week low was hit on Friday and the YTD is down some 48.7%. With the rearview looking 20, 50 and 200-day MAs not only breached but all having rolled over into downtrends, no upward momentum indications, and the upper and lower band trendlines for all of 2022 - lower highs and lower lows, pointing to even more depressed prices ahead, there is not much going right in terms of a short to intermediate term investment. On a more positive note, there is finally an oversold indication and possibly base support where it closed going back to early December 1, 2020, which could bring in buyers on Monday. If TSLA closes below $200 next week, expect buyers to come in again around $180. If that price floor breaks, $125 could be the next downside support target going all the way back to Sept. of 2020. In conclusion, micro tailwinds that could help Tesla shareholders include segment topping sales revenues, the plants are built and producing, they have Semi coming online shortly, and especially that oversold condition could really make TSLA pop to the upside. Micro headwinds include 3/Y being available at much higher prices than non-HEVs, HEVs, and PHEVs with similar size and equipment - price cuts coming?, slackening demand with inventory showing less than a week to pick up a 3 and less than three for a Y, and expensive factory ramp ups in Europe, Asia, and the U.S. are going to continue to cost while output is constrained to meet slackening demand, and the stocks technical trends look bad. Macro headwinds include higher interest rates forcing many aspirational buyers to be disqualified for a $60k Model 3 loan at 7 to 9% vs 2 to 5% just a year ago, collapsing auto demand around the world, and more affordable competition either here or coming online shortly. Betting against Tesla has proven to be a foolish endeavor prior to the start of 2022. Going forward however, who knows. And of course disclosure, I have had no past or current position in TSLA but like anything automotive, I am always interested.