Lucid Motors and Their High End, High Efficiency, High Performance, Lucid Air Lineup

Hi All:

After the bell, Lucid announced its production and delivery totals for the quarter ended March 31, 2023. The company produced 2,314 vehicles during Q1 at its manufacturing facility in Arizona and delivered 1,406 vehicles during the same period. The most important news is this sales release result is lower than Q4s sales results where it produced 3,493 vehicles and delivered 1,932 of them as posted above.

Last month, the company announced it would lay off ~ 1,300 employees or 18 percent of its workforce as part of its restructuring plan.

The stock is currently down some 5.82% to $7.77/share in after market trading vs the 1.48% gain into the close.

Wayne

 

Lucid Air Wins 2023 World Luxury Car of the Year

2023 Lucid Air Grand Touring

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The Lucid Air was named the 2023 World Luxury Car of the Year in the 2023 World Car Awards.

World Car jurors announced Lucid’s win at an awards ceremony at the 2023 New York International Auto Show. The World Car Awards are voted on by a jury of 100 international automotive journalists from 32 countries who selected the winners by secret ballot based on their evaluation of each eligible vehicle.

In the World Luxury Car category, Lucid Air was chosen from an initial entry list of sixteen vehicles, followed by a short list of three finalists announced on March 7.

The Lucid Air also received the 2023 Newsweek Disruptor Award for Powertrain, in recognition for its groundbreaking EV technology, while also being named to the US News & World Report “2023 Best Hybrid and Electric Cars” list for “Best Luxury Electric Car.”

On another note, some automotive colleagues attempted a Cannonball in the Lucid Air Grand Touring and completed it in 44 hrs, 32 min, and 23 sec. This is a good ways off the 42 hrs and and 17 min that a Model S achieved during its NYC to LA drive in 2021.

Wayne

 

Hi All:

The 5th Lucid Tech Talk. This time, the Inverter.

Late last month, Lucid announced they were raising another $3 billion USD through an S3 offering in which Saudi was going to provide almost 2/3's and the market would supply the rest.

What this means for shareholders is another dilution with the outstanding shares coming in at just over 2-billion outstanding.

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From the charts perspective, the stock price action has flattened out albeit just off its low of $6.09 reached this past January.

Wayne

 

Hi All:

Less than a month after announcing European pricing and just that quickly after the update above indicating a base just above the January low, on Thursday, the stock broke into new lows with another bad day on Friday. With the recent cash raise and stock dilution resulting in just over 2-billion shares outstanding, a reverse stock split is surely in the cards. Consumer demand is not increasing as expected. In fact, consumer demand appears to be declining as the threat of a $100k to $200k vehicle with no Corporation backing is a very real problem going forward.

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Lucid revealed European pricing for the Pure AWD and Touring trims below.

Germany - Pure AWD/Touring: 109,000 €/129,000 €
Netherlands - Pure AWD/Touring: €115,000/€134,000
Switzerland - Pure AWD/Touring: 125 000 CHF/145 000 CHF
Norway - Pure AWD/Touring: kr 1 140 000/kr 1 300 000

Wayne

 

Hi All:

A few weeks back, Lucid released their Q2 sales figures and they are again short of expectations.

Lucid announced production and delivery totals for the quarter ended June 30, 2023. Lucid produced 2,173 vehicles during Q2 at its manufacturing facility in Tucson, AZ while delivering1,404 of them during the same period. Lucid has also begun shipments to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Remember it was just 18-months ago that Lucid cut its production forecast for 2022 to a range of 12,000 to 14,000, down from its original target of 20,000 vehicles, citing "supply chain and logistics challenges."

Lucid will release its Q2 2023 financial results tomorrow at 2:30 pm PT/5:30 pm ET.

It also appears Lucid has had a reality check and has finally lowered its retail pricing a bit.

Lucid has dropped prices by up to 18.8%

• Air Pure AWD: $82,400 (from $87k and still $9,600 higher then the original 2021 projected retail of $77,400)
• Air Touring: $95k (from $108k and still $7,500 higher then the original 2021 projected retail of $87,500)
• Air GT: $125.6k (from $154k which is $13,400 less then the original 2021 projected retail of $139,000)

Stock Price Action Guesses

I saw a question posted in one of the LCID stock forum on FB the other day in which a member asked when LCID will reach $50 again. The usual reply's. Long term hold, it will get there, hold on and buy more, big things are coming, etc., etc. Optimism is one thing, realty is another.

To reach $50/share with just over 2-billion shares outstanding would mean LCID achieving a market cap of just over $100-billion USD while producing maybe 6,000 vehicles per year vs the early projections of 20k last year. Meanwhile, GM with a Market Cap of just $50-billion at $36/share produces about 9-million vehicles globally. I do not think LCID has a chance to reach $50 as there are simply to many shares outstanding but crazier things have happened during a hyper-short squeeze as one example.

LCID 2-year Chart

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Basing in the $5 to $7 range, sure. Upside potential? Limited.

Bill mentioned over a year ago that they should license their tech. They have indeed done just that. To Aston Martin. What it will add to the bottom line is limited imho.

• Lucid and Aston Martin enter long-term strategic technology partnership for the integration and supply of Lucid’s state-of-the-art EV powertrain and battery systems in contracts worth in excess of $450M
  
• This landmark agreement marks the first such relationship for Lucid Group’s technology arm and paves the way for future, more mainstream applications
  
• Aston Martin will receive direct access to Lucid’s proprietary electric powertrain technology, including its ultra-high performance twin motor drive unit, renowned battery technology, and Wunderbox
  
• Aston Martin will pay Lucid technology access fees for Lucid’s technologies in a combination of Aston Martin shares and phased cash payments, with Lucid becoming a shareholder in Aston Martin
  
• Additionally, Lucid and Aston Martin will enter into supply arrangements for Lucid’s powertrain components and systems

Wayne

 

Hi All:

For 2024, Lucid improved upon the Grand Touring's (GT) already stellar range results plus added a charging rate kicker.

2024 Lucid Air Grand Touring Features

EPA electric range test procedures became more challenging for the 2024 MY but the 2024 Air Grand Touring still delivers with an EPA-estimated range of 516 miles. Now equipped with a heat pump from the Air Sapphire, the GT is more capable, even in colder climates. In addition, enhancements to Lucid’s in-house motor design, battery cell chemistry, and thermal characteristics reduced energy wasted as heat and enable the car to perform even better.

The 2024 Air Lineup charges between 15 and 30% faster thanks in part to an improved automatic preconditioning routine while driving towards a DCFC that enables even faster charging once you plug in.

• 2024 Lucid Air Grand Touring starts at $109,900 in the U.S. and offers an EPA-estimated range of 519 miles while propelled from its very compact motor with 819 HP output
• 2024 Lucid Air Pure, starts at $69,900 offers and offers an EPA-estimated range of 419 miles with 430 HP output
• 2024 Lucid Air Touring starts at $77,900 and offers an EPA-estimated range of 411 miles. The AWD 2-motor can output over 620 HP at WOT
• 2024 Lucid Air Sapphire features a three-motor powertrain with 1,234 hp on tap allowing an outrageous 0-60 mph time of 1.89 seconds, 0-100 mph in 3.84 seconds, quarter mile in 8.95 seconds, and a top speed of 205 mph, all with an EPA-estimated range of 427 miles

In terms of sales volumes, the brand has had it tough over the last two years and maybe, just maybe has begun to turn the corner with a surprising rise in deliveries announced this week. Some of this may have to do with the fact they are offering $7,500 on the hood for the Pure and Touring and $10,000 off on the Grand Touring. In addition, they are offering a $4,000 bonus offer for any vehicles that they may have on-site at the time of order through July 31, 2024.

That means a $69,900 base Air Pure with 2-years of free maintenance and $1,000 charging allowance through Electrify America, costs as little as $59,975 incl the $1,500 D&H and $75 Doc fee plus TTL. While not a bargain compared to a std. midsize, for a base luxury model with a world class underpinning, it makes the 402-mile range Model S at $74,630 incl. $1,390 D&H and $250 order fee look very overpriced.

2024 Lucid Air Pure


< $60k + TTL to start is beginning to look like a Hot Deal to me.​

Lucid Air Deliveries (2022 - 2024)

Q2 2024 - 2,394 vehicles delivered
Q1 2024 - 1,967 vehicles delivered

2023 - 8,428 vehicles produced, and 6,001 vehicles delivered.

Q4 2023 - 1,734 vehicles delivered
Q3 2023 - 1,457 vehicles delivered
Q2 2023 - 1,404 vehicles delivered
Q1 2023 - 1,406 vehicles delivered

2022 - 7,180 vehicles produced, and 4,369 vehicles delivered.

Q4 2022 - 1,932 vehicles delivered
Q3 2022 - 1,398 vehicles delivered
Q2 2022 - 679 vehicles delivered
Q1 2022 - 360 vehicles delivered

Lucid 2-year Stock Chart


20 and 50-day MA were breached and pointing upward while the 200-day was breached earlier today.​

Is it finally turning the corner or is it yet another fake rally? Closing in on its 52-week high on very heavy volume means someone is making a huge bet on the soon to be released Gravity SUV selling well.

Wayne

 

Hi All:

With the introduction of the 2025 MY, the EPA tightened up EV range specs. That said, the Air Pure received a heat pump which helped keep and even increased its EPA rated range by 1 mpg vs the 2024 Model Air Pure.

2025 Lucid Air Pure


4.34 miles/kWh: The World's Most Efficient Car.​

The 2025 Lucid Air Pure gained a mile of range to an EPA 420 miles of estimated range from a battery pack that is just 84 kWh's. This makes the Lucid Air the first vehicle in the world to achieve a ratio of > 4.3 miles/kWh. It has also earned the highest MPGe (miles per gallon equivalent) rating ever given to an EV with 146 MPGe from the EPA.

Whatever journey you are embarking upon, the Air Pure effectively requires less energy to go from point A to point B than anything else available today.

2025 Lucid Air Pure RWD w/ 19s (420-miles of AER)- 4.34 mi/kWh
2024 Tesla Model 3 AWD LR (342-miles of AER) - 3.84 mi/kWh
2025 Hyundai Ioniq 6 RWD LR (342-miles of AER) - 3.84 mi/kWh
2024 Kia EV6 RWD LR (310-miles of AER) - 3.44 mi/kWh

Efficiency is what makes it possible to design electric vehicles that deliver the range that consumers expect without relying on an enormous battery pack that sacrifices affordability and passenger volumes.

How efficient an electric vehicle is when driving on the road also drives critical differences in how much time is spent off the road for charging. While much attention is paid to public charging infrastructure, the fact remains that roughly 90% of EV charging is done at home, with Level 2 (AC) charging systems that deliver the same power regardless of what kind of EV is plugged in.

When plugged in for 10 hours at home on a 9.6 kW charger, the new Lucid Air Pure can add 380 miles of driving range, charging the vehicle from 0% to 90%. Over the same 10-hour period, a Tesla Model S would only reach 76%, for a total of 306 miles.

Increasing efficiency means also makes it possible to build more cars for a given amount of raw materials, helping mitigate the footprint of manufacturing. Lucid recently announced our first sustainability report would be published this year, and we are looking forward to sharing more on this topic as well.

All in, Lucid sales volumes (just 2,394 vehicles sold in H1 of 2024) and share price ($3.49 as of Friday, Sept. 20, 2024 close) may not be anything to write home about, the efficiency of the fantastic looking sedans cannot be denied.

Just 2 weeks ago at its Technology & Manufacturing Day, Lucid introduced the first rendering of its proposed midsize platform. The new crossover will use the efficiency and cost advantages enabled by Lucid technology to deliver the same range as competitors while using a smaller battery. The midsize platform is scheduled to start production in late 2026 with a starting price under $50,000.

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Wayne

 

Hi Edwin:

The Board has decided to issue another $1.67 billion worth of stock diluting share holder value once again.

Lucid 2-year Stock Chart

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262,446,931 shares are being added to the already bloated 2.33 billion shares outstanding. At some point, the dilution will become overwhelming until such time there is no chance for future profitability or even if it does, it will be buried in the number of shares outstanding.

During Q3 2024, Lucid produced 1,805 vehicles and delivered 2,781 vehicles. The company delivered 4,369 vehicles in 2022 with 2023 annual production guidance of 10,000 to 14,000 vehicles. The guidance is never reached and Air sales are not going to improve as the lineup is now almost 3 years old.

Wayne

 

Hi Litesong:

The number of shares outstanding is simply overwhelming and it is almost a quarter by quarter dilution to keep operating funds at a level to continue for another year. I have no idea how they can get out of this, even with Gravity coming.

Wayne

 

Hi All:

The company held their annual Tech Day and revealed quite a bit about their tech, the Gravity, and even hinted about their midsize with the new, downsized Atlas drivetrain. All good stuff as the company's stock has fell to a new all-time low below $2/share before settling at $2.01 at the close on Friday afternoon. Great tech and the vehicles are getting better than ever but the sales volumes are absolutely trash, even with a production ramp up. The Gravity needs a lower price, and the new, upcoming midsize needs to arrive at $35k or less, now, not years from now.

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The technicals are completely broken, the fundamentals are barely holding on thanks to the Saudi PIF supporting the cash drain, and with just under 3-billion shares outstanding, hope for a huge upside is no longer practical.

I will have more on the 7-passenger Gravity with a preview of the 440-mile est. range GT trim when I get back from CA next week. A great looking SUV with some wonderful tech but $95k SUVs (GT) for a launch edition is not what sells in volume anywhere in the world today.

The Gravity Touring trim will be available to order in late 2025 starting at $79,900 with the Grand Touring available "to order now" beginning at $94,900.

Wayne

 

Hi All:

Lucid Q3 2024 Reveals Widening Losses

Nov. 7, 2024 -- Lucid (LCID) incurred a Q3 2024 loss of 28 cents/share on revenue of $200 million despite record deliveries of 2,781 Air vehicles. The company’s net loss widened to $992.5 million in Q3 compared to a loss of $630.9 million in Q3 of 2023.

The company continues to expect to produce approximately 9,000 vehicles this year, 6.8% above the 8,428 vehicles produced in 2023. During the earnings release, they stated that with the recent capitol raise, it had enough funds on hand to launch its new midsize platform in late 2026.

LCID closed at $2.16/share, down 57% YTD from the $3.89 it opened at on January 1.

Wayne

 

Hi All:

How We LOST $100k In 2 Years Owning a Lucid Air (Worst Financial Decision EVER)

2022 Lucid Air Grand Touring - $139,000 $1,650 D&H = $140,650 + TTL ($152,000) - $7,500 Fed TC. ~ $145,000 all in. With 16k miles, it is worth ~ $65k?

Wayne