Tesla Model Y Preview and (TSLA) Q3 2019 Earnings Up Significantly!

An unexpectedly profitable quarter boosts the stock. Going forward, the upcoming Model Y should sell more than the S, X, and Model 3 combined!

Wayne Gerdes – CleanMPG – October 24, 2019

Tesla Model Y

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The Model Y will be available with seating for 7 option, a Panoramic roof, and 66 cu. ft. of cargo volume in 5 seat configuration including the front trunk. On the performance front, 0 to 60 mph in 3.5 sec, a Cd of 0.23, and an EPA range of 300-miles. RWD Long Range will be available for $47k

Tesla Q3 Earnings

After the bell, Tesla reported a surprising Q3 earnings per share profit of $1.86 vs the Streets consensus of a $0.42/share loss! Revenues of $6.3 billion were down slightly from the $6.33 billion expected. By all appearances, Tesla has finally turned the corner on sustained profitability with the Fremont Factory punching out Model 3s as fast as demand requires and they continue to make money while expanding vehicle services.

The eye opener imho is Tesla’s automotive gross margins rose to 22.8% in the Q3, up from Q2s 18.9%. OEMs achieving even 8 percent is noteworthy so all of those expensive Model S’, X, and 3s are making the company $s.

Where Tesla is spending those dollars is on the new China Factory where Li-Ion Cells and the vehicles themselves will be produced under the same roof, limited production of the Tesla Semi in 2020, a European factory scheduled for 2021 opening, and its continuous roll out of upgraded and more chargers within the brands Super Charging network. Super Charger V3 upgrade to 250 kW can charge a Model 3 Long Range at over 1,000 miles per hour between 10 and 60 percent SoC!

All the while Tesla continues to focus on sustainable transportation with sustainable home and business energy production, sustainable energy consumption, and Electric Cars meeting our transportation needs.

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The earnings announcement caused the stock to jump by 20 percent. The short sellers covering after this unexpectedly good announcement was said to be the cause.

Regarding the Model 3, the EPA range of the Model 3 Standard Range Plus has been increased from 240 to 250 miles thanks to efficient energy use rather than a costly increase in battery size. Comparing this to the rest of the industry, Tesla’s long-range models of the S, X and 3 continue to have 20-40% range advantage over every other EV available including the $37k Kona Electric at 258 miles.

Tesla Insurance

Another interesting Tesla owner upgrade is Tesla insurance. Currently, insurance companies’ margins are being increased simply by increasing rates to the detriment of the average consumer. In August, Tesla Insurance was launched for California customers allowing many Tesla owners to reduce their insurance costs by 20 to 30%. This offering is an important step to make Tesla’s more affordable than their rivals. Tesla is working to expand insurance into additional markets.

Tesla Q3 2019 Earnings Details


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Tesla Model Y

The Model Y is an all-electric, mid-size CUV will start at $39,000 for the Standard Range version, and $47,000 for the Long Range. A Dual-Motor All-Wheel Drive, and Performance variants are also being readied.

Model Y can carry seven adults and their gear while offering segment leading range, superior performance, and the most advanced technology. The high-efficiency powertrain and ultra-responsive motors will drive the Y from 0 to 60 in as little as 3.5 seconds with a top speed of up to 150 mph. Model Y Standard Battery will have 230 miles of range, while Model Y Long Range will be able to travel up to 300 miles on a single charge.

Inside the Model Y.​

Inside, Model Y's panoramic glass roof and high seating offers an expansive view. The front trunk and room behind the split-folding second-row seats provide a total of 66 cubic feet of storage space. Like the Model 3, Model Y requires no keys, but instead connects to your smartphone for seamless entry and exit, with a single 15” touchscreen interface inside for all of the car's controls. Model Y also connects with the Tesla Mobile app for unique, easy-to-access features like remote unlock, the controversial Summon, remote pre-conditioning, location tracking, Speed Limit Mode, and much more.

Model Y is designed to be the safest mid-size SUV. The low center of gravity, rigid body structure and large crumple zones provide unparalleled protection. Its aerodynamic design and leading battery technology also make it highly-efficient in terms of energy usage, meaning you can achieve better range with less energy than other EVs on the market.

Deliveries are expected to begin in Fall 2020 for Model Y Performance, $47,000 Long Range Rear-Wheel Drive, and Dual-Motor All-Wheel Drive variants, and early 2021 for the $39,000 Model Y Standard Range.

To put the Tesla 2019 U.S. Sales volumes into perspective, the 3, X, and S combined achieved sales of just over 135,700 YTD here in the U.S. Every other manufacturer’s BEV sales combined including the GM Bolt, Nissan Leaf, VW eGolf, Audi e-tron, Jaguar i-Pace, Hyundai Kona and Ioniq, Honda Clarity, BMW i3, Kia Niro and Soul combined for just over 34,500 vehicles through the same period. Meaning one manufacture is making money. All the rest, probably not.

Tesla has made more than 550,000 vehicles to date and just 12-months from now, may exceed 1,000,000 vehicles. 12 years from 1 to a million? Those are numbers not to be screwed around with.

 

I like the look of that interior. But they're taking the wrong version of KISS. They made the look simple, when they should have made the engineering and usability simple. Basic common functions should be hardware not software, and tactile buttons and switches. Those just... work.

I bailed out of Tesla's stock a year ago. Even this rally doesn't bring it back to that mark.

 

Hi All:

I am a fan of the new minimalist interiors myself. Sort of like the frameless glasses style. If you look at the Ys rear view, it is the frameless variety as well.

I am still at a loss to explain the fanboy activity of Tesla owners because the TCO is ridiculous. Even a Model 3 at $50k for a compact cannot make up for the fuel and the headaches of plugging in and waiting on any lengthy RT. 0 to 60 means nothing where most are sold and electricity costs - between $0.40 and $0.48/kWh depending on season - unless you have gone solar is staggering here in Southern CA. At $0.44/kWh on your home Level1 or installed 2, that yields a gasoline equivalent of $6.15 per gallon compared to a new $20k Prius Prime and $3.70 per gallon here.

In any case, Tesla does appear to have turned the profitability corner and is not waiting for the industry to catch up. Electrify America's own build out consists mostly of 50 kW charging and there are no near term plans to upgrade to the 350 kW hour charging like the Tesla's V3 upgrade is offering those owners who will be able to use the 250 kW charging at some point in the future. That is what makes Tesla Tesla I guess. They do not wait for the industry or any standards to be set, they set their own bar, set it high, execute, and move onto the next item whether that be Tesla Semis, PowerWalls, or Home Solar.

While I cannot justify their price tags(s) or the insurance to cover them, I can admire Elon's headlong charge into the sustainable transportation space. All the while everybody else - all other OEMs - seem to be playing games and offering vehicles with last last generations range and performance specs by comparison. How the hell does a brand new 2019 Audi e-tron with 204 miles of range and a 0 to 60 time of 5.5 seconds compete with a 2017 Model X and its 295 miles of range and a 0 to 60 time of 4.4 sec. for the std. and 2.7 for the Performance? It is not even close!

If the upcoming 2021 VW CROZZ CUV does not reach 300-miles from its 84 kWh pack, what is the point. Tesla's Model S' has been offering a 300+ mile range for 3 years now. A 259 mile range B-segment sized Chevrolet Bolt's with $45k price tags? Are consumers crazy?

Remember this Monroney from the Bolt Premier we drove back in 2017?

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Yes, people must be crazy.

Wayne

 

Hi Bill:

I think making it a 7-passenger is not going to work. It looks like a raised 3 which it probably is.

Wayne

 

Hi Bill:

Not at all. The Model Y appears to be a photoshop from the 3. While hard to discern as the view angle was not quite the same, they are different.

2020 Tesla Model Y Profile



2020 Tesla Model 3 Profile

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I still do not see how Tesla is going to jam 7 into the Y despite them showing 6 people get out of one at its reveal. There just is not that much room behind the front row seat.

Wayne

 

Rear facing third row seats could help the headroom issue.

 

Hi Bill:

The IIHS and NHTSA only run crash tests with rear seat passengers in the second row, never a third.

Crash Test Dummies at Work

If they ever move to a rear end or side collision test with passengers in the third row, the industry is going to have to massively overhaul its structures as 3rd row crash protection is the wild wild west right now. Auto makers are not required to or building the passenger safety cage for that type of collision. The following explains why.

From a Swedish performance site called Swedespeed.

IIHS on Third Row Safety

I had a little conversation with Russ Rader at the IIHS. It was nice of him to talk to a peasant like me, but I thought the conversation was interesting.

To Russ Rader from me:

From Russ Rader:

A Volvo XC90 rear seat crash test.

Wayne

 

I'm not a fanboy but I feel like the Model 3 would be a good car for my girlfriend. She's been considering the Lexus IS, BMW 3-series, and Genesis G70. That's in the Model 3's price range, and so far she seems to be preferring cars that are smooth and quiet. The Model 3 certainly fits that criteria. Electricity is only 7 cents per kWh here, and personally I would be happy plugging in a car every night if it meant that I didn't have to visit a gas station again. Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be a way to test drive a Model 3 here before buying it, so it's not something that she or I would consider.