OP/ED: Peak oil’s slippery slope

[worthywads]

Originally Posted by jsmithy

I can't understand why everyone is so negative all the time, especially about energy. People seem to thrive on it. Just human nature I guess.

Necessity breeds innovation. Just watch the Science Channel for a little while. I believe we still have time and the ability to figure this out. Market forces are already driving positive change.

I know what you mean, it's as though there is a hope for the worst.

[Dan]

Originally Posted by toastblows

and for the 4-5 billion people on earth who dont need electricity or petroleum...life will go on without a blink. I think the envy may turn from the american dream to the simple lives of tribes who live deep in the jungles of Brazil, or plains of Africa....hunt and gather before oil, hunt and gather after, doesnt really matter.

We're totally on the same team here, but I'm gonna have to challenge that figure. With 6 billion ppl, 4-5 billion is 67% - 83% of the human race. I don't think there are that many indigenous people left. So I googled a bit and found that China + India + South America + Africa totaled to 4.4 billion. So for those figures to fly, it would have to be stated to that 90% of those 4 continents don't use electricity or oil at all. No bus, not tractors, no water pumps, not generators, nothing.

Personally I'd go with 2-3 billion (if you twisted my arm) but not 4-5 billion. In my household poll conducted though, your coming out ahead.

Ahh found a source (not a good one):
http://www.solarenergy.org/resources/energyfacts.html

pegs the figure at 2 billion without electricity. I find that quite shocking... I still thought it was much lower than that.

So 35% of the Human Race do not use electricity... astonishing. Of the hundreds of people I know, I only know of 1 person that doesn't use electricity, but he does use tons of diesel.

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[Dan]

Originally Posted by worthywads

I know what you mean, it's as though there is a hope for the worst.

We are running out of Oil, but we have absolutely gobs and gobs of coal. So I'm not that worried about the end of America. I'm just a bit worried about what is going to be like when we go 80% coal powered as a country.

But everyone is right. We'll figure something out. Our job (as citizens) is to make sure what they figure out is a good thing.

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[worthywads]

Originally Posted by Dan

We are running out of Oil, but we have absolutely gobs and gobs of coal. So I'm not that worried about the end of America. I'm just a bit worried about what is going to be like when we go 80% coal powered as a country.

But everyone is right. We'll figure something out. Our job (as citizens) is to make sure what they figure out is a good thing.

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I doubt we'll get to that much coal, protests against coal plants are exceeding that of nuclear.

[mparrish]

A national grid that is 30% renewable / 50% nuclear / 20% NatGas/Coal powering our homes, businesses, & transport via PHEV. That plus a huge dose of demand management.

I find 2 billion surprising too. The poorest of the poor do without adequate shelter, nutrition, and plumbing. But electricity is fairly cheap and the first to usually arrive.

[Dan]

Originally Posted by mparrish

A national grid that is 30% renewable / 50% nuclear / 20% NatGas/Coal powering our homes, businesses, & transport via PHEV. That plus a huge dose of demand management.

I find 2 billion surprising too. The poorest of the poor do without adequate shelter, nutrition, and plumbing. But electricity is fairly cheap and the first to usually arrive.

Yep, I think Nuke is the way to go. The grid is also (as I guess here) much more capable of switching from one fuel stock to another. Just build another 50 million dollar plant.

Transportation is my fear. Last report I read put the average cycle time of the US fleet at 13 years (pick any number really). So most of the new cars offered would have to be PHEV for at least 5 years for it to make a sizable dent in the US fleet. So we are still gonna need some devil juice to keep the older portion of the US fleet rolling. Hopefully a clean coal-liquification comes on line, or the Bush Bomb-em-and-take-the-oil policy keeps the oil flowing long enough to keep the grocery stores stocked with meat.

But... yeah... We will definitely figure it out. Guess I should go back to school and look at that Nuclear Engineering program.

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[toastblows]

Originally Posted by Dan

We're totally on the same team here, but I'm gonna have to challenge that figure. With 6 billion ppl, 4-5 billion is 67% - 83% of the human race. I don't think there are that many indigenous people left. So I googled a bit and found that China + India + South America + Africa totaled to 4.4 billion. So for those figures to fly, it would have to be stated to that 90% of those 4 continents don't use electricity or oil at all. No bus, not tractors, no water pumps, not generators, nothing.

Personally I'd go with 2-3 billion (if you twisted my arm) but not 4-5 billion. In my household poll conducted though, your coming out ahead.

Ahh found a source (not a good one):
http://www.solarenergy.org/resources/energyfacts.html

pegs the figure at 2 billion without electricity. I find that quite shocking... I still thought it was much lower than that.

So 35% of the Human Race do not use electricity... astonishing. Of the hundreds of people I know, I only know of 1 person that doesn't use electricity, but he does use tons of diesel.

11011011

Hah, i like how you are taking polls....its mind blowing to think about it.

2-3 billion is easily the number, i would guess 4+ need no oil, 2-3 need no electricity. As Americans (or developed world people) not having electricity is hard to fathom. So figure this, someone on the line of poverty in this country with a job probably has some sort of living space with electricity. Im not talking homeless, i mean even the person making $5/hr living with 6 people in a 2 bd apartment probably has a toilet and electricity.

Take China though, 1.3 billion people. 800 million of them are in poverty. And poverty in a 3rd world country (they can claim to be industrialized, but 800 million people living in shacks with no running water or electricity isnt my idea of a 1st world nation) isnt making $5/hr and having an apartment with a running water and electric outlets. Its a shack with nothing but wood to burn, maybe coal, and living off the land for food. A village of people may have access to generators, or a place with electricty..and there may be a truck or 2 in the village...but this is not what i consider a 1 to 1 relationship needing oil and electricity...or being able to afford it.

i think 2 billion people (population in the 1820s-1830s world wide before industrialization started) will still be sustainable if a catastrophe like the worst peak oil doom theories suggest actually happens.

[300TTto545]

"By the end of 1996, the percentage of household with access of electricity amounted to 94.7 %, and 11 counties and 72 million residents throughout the country remained no electricity." The Current situation of China's Electric Power Industry
By Zhou Jia Ping, Director of general engineer office of Chongqing Energy Conservation Technical Service Center

That quote is referring to China - where do you guys get your numbers from? Now access to electricity does not equal having it in the home but really - I doubt less than 50% have electricity in the home.

[Dan]

Originally Posted by 300TTto545

where do you guys get your numbers from?

My source listed above sites the US Department of Energy, which I suspected had skewed the numbers one way or the other for political reasons. That's why I labeled it "unreliable"

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[toastblows]

Originally Posted by 300TTto545

"By the end of 1996, the percentage of household with access of electricity amounted to 94.7 %, and 11 counties and 72 million residents throughout the country remained no electricity." The Current situation of China's Electric Power Industry
By Zhou Jia Ping, Director of general engineer office of Chongqing Energy Conservation Technical Service Center

That quote is referring to China - where do you guys get your numbers from? Now access to electricity does not equal having it in the home but really - I doubt less than 50% have electricity in the home.

I recalled a Time or Newsweek article i read back a few years saying that 760 million chinese are "poor" for whatever they considered poor.

If you believe China's official word, 10% of the population lives below the poverty line, which is 130 million.

Here is what how the World Bank classify's the poverty line in China:

"The World Bank has estimated that more than 60% of the population was living under its $1 per day (PPP) poverty line at the beginning of economic reform. That poverty headcount ratio had declined to 10% by 2004, indicating that about 500 million people have been lifted out of poverty in a generation."

So if you think $1 U.S. per day is above poverty, then time or newsweek was wrong. Personally i think the world bank if a lil off even for a country like china. you make $1.01 a day and you are not in poverty basically. I bet that is a life full of beemers and champagne