Honda Expects Hybrids to Be 10% of Its Global Sales by 2010?

[xcel]

HCH-II and new small family hybrid sales predicted to explode.

Naoko Fujimura and Tetsuya Komatsu - Bloomberg - Oct. 24, 2007

With US sales of the HCH-II currently running 30,000 unit’s year over year, Honda is making a rather ambitious assertion of 450,000 hybrid sales per year world wide by 2010. That is unless the new small hybrid is a world beating sales blockbuster? Even with the new production capacity and the HCH-II’s launch into India, the production capacity and quantities sold needed to make up for the delta seems almost impossible? -- Ed.

Honda Motor Co. expects hybrids to account for 10 percent of its global vehicle sales by 2010, as much as five times the current level for the world's second- largest maker of gasoline-electric vehicles.

The carmaker has an overall sales target of 4.5 million vehicles for 2010, President Takeo Fukui said at the Tokyo International Automotive Conference today. The hybrid surge, to as many as 450,000 units, will come from a new five-seat gasoline-electric car due in 2009 and a compact sports car based on the CR-Z concept model unveiled today, Fukui said.

Honda has lagged behind Toyota Motor Corp., the world's largest hybrid seller, since Toyota introduced the Prius in 1997. Toyota will sell about 400,000 hybrids worldwide this year and expects the level to reach at least 1 million a year by the early 2010s. Rising fuel prices and stricter emission rules have boosted sales the past three years, particularly in the U.S.

``What Honda needs is a hybrid with much better performance than the Toyota Prius,'' said Koichi Ogawa, who helps oversee $28 billion at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo. ``Smaller cars will continue attracting more customers, because they are more fuel-efficient.''

Honda has said it expects to sell at least 200,000 units globally of the new, as yet unnamed five-seat hybrid, with the Civic hybrid and the new sports car model contributing the rest.

The U.S. will probably account for about half of those sales, John Mendel, executive vice president of Honda's U.S. unit, said in an interview today. ``It's obvious that we'll have a lot of that volume,'' Mendel said… [Read More]

[Earthling]

``What Honda needs is a hybrid with much better performance than the Toyota Prius,'' said Koichi Ogawa, who helps oversee $28 billion at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo. ``Smaller cars will continue attracting more customers, because they are more fuel-efficient.''

All Honda needs is a hybrid comparable to the Prius, but with a better driver's seat.

Harry

[xcel]

Hi Harry:

___Honda appears to be under the misconception the reason the Prius outsells the HCH-II by 5 to 1 is because of the Prius’ performance? Although the Prius-II is ~ 1 second faster to 60 with handling going to the HCH-II, I have rarely heard a Prius or HCH-II owner complain about their respective vehicles performance. I have heard and experienced complaints about ergonomics wrt the Prius-II but its FE is fantastic in its element. The HCH-II is better in some ways but it is smaller, includes far less utility and does not achieve the FE of that Prius-II in a mostly city driving cycle in particular.

___I understand the manufacturers pushing the performance game on the average consumer but Joe and Jane Q. are getting hit at the pump and getting tired of it. When it comes to purchasing a hybrid, they want to see 50 + and everything else wrt performance, better comfort, more features and amenities come in second place imho. I hope Honda gets it before it is too late?

___Good Luck

___Wayne

[Right Lane Cruiser]

Honda obviously expects this new hybrid to be hot stuff (Li-ion? JK!!!) -- I'm more curious than ever to see what they are planning to put under the hood of this thing! I surely hope it is much more robust than the IMA. Something that will allow pure EV operation, preferably at highway speeds with decent distance capability.

[rhwinger]

Boy, this could be an interesting thread.

It seems like Honda has dropped the marketing ball. Their CAFE results are better than Toyota, but Toyota, with the Prius, is the darling child.

I didn't buy the Prius because I couldn't see out the back window. But that's just me, and I'm glad there are a lot of satisfied Prius drivers out there. Perhaps the fixed back seat in the HCH is a major issue, or styling?

I think Honda does need to make some adjustments, or Toyota is going to continue to outsell them.

It's been a long day. I'm probably not coming across very well right now.

Thanks,

Bob

[Chuck]

I don't discount Honda could come up with something hot, but I think to reach 10% would require a hit like the intro of the Mustang...that happens as often as being down 1-3 in the pennant, then getting into the World Series.

[MnFocus]

Just like the Powerball "It *could* happen!"

I'm hoping their 10% guesstimate is pessimistic - almost positive I'm not the only one either .

[xcel]

Hi All:

___With the $2,100 tax credit disappearing in rather large fashion on the HCH-II in the near future, a 42 mpg combined vs. 29 for the non-hybrid Civic w/ Auto, there may be some big deals to make the HCH-II more palatable even with gas prices rising into the $4.00 per area next spring.

___A bit OT but I remember seeing a brand new 04 HCH-I w/ a stick going for $14,500 on a New York Honda dealership lot in early 05 when the thing invoiced out at a touch over $18,500 including dest. I highly doubt we will see any kind of fire sale but to sell 60 – 80,000 HCH-II’s and 120 – 140,000 small family hybrid’s, something has to give?

___Good Luck

___Wayne

[ILAveo]

To me the news here is that Honda thinks they will have their production problems worked out. No more comments like the "Honda Civic Hybrid is basically handbuilt" if they can ramp up hybrids to 10% of their production. Is it time to hope for a reduction in the hybrid premium?

[antrey]

I read Fukui's statement about greater performance to mean better FE performance but that may just be due to my biased idea of what "performance" means. Anyhow, for typically tight-lipped Honda to come out with an aggressive statement such as this leads me to believe there are many exciting details they are not revealing about how they plan to reach that target.