Opinion: US Gas Reserves and Minimum Operating Level.

[tarabell]

If our MOL really is in the vicinity of 185 million barrels, then we have about 18 hours of reserves left should there be a serious supply interruption – like from a hurricane.

Tom Whipple – Falls Church News-Press – September 6, 2007

Last spring, when U.S. gasoline stockpiles were falling like a brick, there was much concern about shortages during the summer driving season. The average price for gasoline in the U.S. rose to $3.22 per gallon and in some parts of the country over $4. Our aged refineries were huffing and puffing to increase gasoline output enough to meet demand which was approaching record highs.

But then something wonderful happened. Great ships appeared on the horizon, attracted by the record high U.S. gasoline prices, and soon there was enough gasoline so that we could all have a mobile summer. Those of us who worry about the possibility of oil and gasoline shortages forgot about U.S. stockpiles for awhile and went back to puzzling over OPEC pronouncements, Venezuela, Nigeria, Mexico and a dozen other topics that affect our oil supplies.

Late in May, however, before the gasoline bearing tankers started arriving in larger numbers, I wrote a column about the minimum operating level (MOL) for gasoline in the U.S. You may recall that the MOL is the amount of gasoline we have in inventory that is in transit and not readily available. It may be in a pipeline coming up from Louisiana, on a barge being towed along the coast or still at the refinery waiting to be shipped.

You may even recall that the U.S. Department of Energy used to publish a number for the minimum operating level, but then stopped on the grounds they were not sure exactly what the correct number was. There certainly was no need to scare people by suggesting we were getting close to the bottom of our national gasoline tank. Last May, however, an inveterate researcher discovered the number in a musty old DOE publication from 2004 and it turned out to be 185 million barrels.

Now this number is probably not exactly right. Others have placed it at 170 million, but the size is not really relevant; it is the general magnitude that counts. Why bring this up again? Well last May there was much excitement when the government reported that our national gasoline inventory had shrunk from 228 million barrels in January to 195 million in late May.

Now for the disturbing news: during June our national gasoline stockpile climbed to about 205 million barrels and held there through July. Then as prices fell throughout the summer, fewer and fewer great gasoline ships visited our shores and our stockpiles started dropping again. The last report from nearly two weeks ago places our gasoline inventory at 192.6 million barrels.

This may sound like a lot unless you that know as a nation we are burning in excess of 9.6 million barrels a day. If our minimum operating level really is somewhere in the vicinity of 185 million barrels, then we have about 18 hours of reserves left should there be a serious supply interruption – like from a hurricane.

Even if the MOL is 170 million barrels or less, we only have a few days of useable reserves left and these are not evenly distributed across the country.[Read More]

[brick]

185 million barrels, 9.6 million barrels per day...18 hours? Did he transpose a decimal or something? That doesn't compute.

[tarabell]

I think he means the difference between 192.6m (current) and 185m (MOL) is about 18 hours worth.

[xcel]

Hi Tarabell:

___I hate to say it but unfortunately we need to see these close calls go critical so as to get this country off its collective tail and move forward in a new and better direction. This find of yours just shows how close we are. Just a short breathe away from critical yet just enough to keep the average Joe blind enough to purchase the next gas guzzler or other non-fuel efficient automobile when there are so many other great choices available to him or her that are so much better for all of us.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

[tarabell]

Here's a better analogy--supposing the utility shut off the water at your house today. The water left in your pipes and water tank is your MOL. It’s important because US gas inventory figures include the MOL. So you see why it’s a bit of a crisis if we fall below that number. From what I read a thousand mile pipeline with a few hundred (or thousand gallons) of gas in it is effectively useless.

So when the government says we have 192m barrels but the MOL is 185m barrels, that means we really have only 7m barrels in inventory. And when you use 9.5m barrels a day--that’s a problem.

[Right Lane Cruiser]

I really wish there was something I could do to prepare for this but there really isn't because I just don't have the money to switch to something else in a short amount of time. I would be in a reasonable range electric vehicle for my commuting right now if I did have the money.

On the flip side, this would probably put a serious dent in the traffic and then maybe I could really stretch my car to its full potential? Mid 50's tanks are not out of the question I think, but that won't do me any good if there is no gasoline to be had in the first place.

At least I can telecommute.

[Earthling]

I walked to work today, and the tank in my Prius is full.

I'm not worried.


Harry

[Right Lane Cruiser]

For me 17+mi just isn't reasonable. I can't really even bike it because there are sections of highway I can't circumvent (over the river for example )

I'd think about purchasing one of those battery powered scooters Brian posted a link to a while back but the neither the range nor the speed is sufficient.

[mulad]

Originally Posted by tarabell

From what I read a thousand mile pipeline with a few hundred (or thousand gallons) of gas in it is effectively useless.

Yeah, it's pretty amazing how much can fit into a pipeline. A 12-inch pipeline a mile in length can hold 11,650 gallons. Go up to a 4-foot pipeline (which is probably rare, but I'm sure there are a number of 36-inchers floating around) and it goes up to 46,600 gallons. Multiply that by some number of miles to get the minimum needed to keep a pipeline running -- I suspect it'd be at least the distance between pumping stations, and probably closer to twice that so you don't have pumps running dry. I'm not sure if you need a pipeline to be completely full for it to work, but you'd at least need enough to fill the pipeline when going up hills.

If needed, you could use a non-fuel fluid to push fuel along, but you'd need pretty massive quantities of it (and, presumably, ways of returning or recycling it).

[brick]

Originally Posted by tarabell

I think he means the difference between 192.6m (current) and 185m (MOL) is about 18 hours worth.

Ahh, I think you're right. 192.6M total - 185M in transit = 7.6M sitting on the ground, which is far less than a day's supply.

I get it! That sucks.