Americans buying fewer new cars over a lifetime, research suggests

[ALS]

“It’s more difficult to retain a buyer, especially if they’ve changed stages in their lifetime, “Their needs for a vehicle may have changed, so they may abandon the brand they’ve driven for many years

Phil Lebeau - NBCNEWS - October 23, 2012

Chalk another one up for the recession and how it has altered life in America. New analysis by the automotive research firm Polk shows Americans can now expect to buy fewer new cars during their lifetime.

On average, we’ll buy almost four fewer new cars by the time each of us hits 76 years old, the age when Polk believes most people are done buying new vehicles.

“The days when you bought a vehicle for 4 or 5 years are likely over,” said Anthony Pratt, Polk director of forecasting.

How much have things changed since before the recession? Here is Pratt’s analysis.

We’ve talked for some time about Americans holding on to their new cars longer and the reasons have been well-documented. Cars last longer, and as their prices have gone up, people are less inclined to take on a monthly payment. Since the recession they have stretched out the length of time to pay off a new loan. In other words, people now expect to be in their car six, seven or eight years after they buy it.... [Read More]

[Indigo]

Cars are a lot more expensive than they once were and (for the exception of Chrysler) they last a LOT longer. While Chryslers last 37 months and 36,001 miles (after that, the car disintegrates into subatomic particles; CERN could use Chryslers to detect the Higgs Boson by driving the car between 36,000 and 36,001.), most other cars sold in the modern era can easily last ten years if properly maintained. My spouse's prior car (a Honda Accord) lasted ten years even with improper maintenance.

[Earthling]

“The days when you bought a vehicle for 4 or 5 years are likely over,” said Anthony Pratt, Polk director of forecasting.

More like 14 or 15 years in my case. As Indigo pointed out, in the past especially, the typical car became unreliable and expensive to keep going after about 6 years, although the added expense was probably still cheaper than trading every 2 or 3 years. I try to buy a car with a reputation for durability and reliability. Buying a car to keep up with the Joneses is a concept that never enters my mind.

Another factor in this is that people are driving less, especially younger people. Gasoline is expensive. People have less money to spend. If you don't have a job, you don't have the money to travel, and if you do have a job, you probably aren't getting much vacation time these days. Global warming is an issue and some people are reducing miles driven to lower their CO2 emissions.

Harry

[CRT1]

This is a good thing, right? We can refocus these resources on solving world hunger or world peace. Ha ha, just kidding.

[jeffdavis]

I'm part of the problem. I've never bought a new car. But I'd like the American consumers to get back to buying new cars every 3 to 4 years so I'll have more used cars to pick from at bargain prices.

[herm]

how do leases count into this?

[Jay]

The distributor went out on my '93 Civic Si at about 130,000 mi. It was $450 for just the part. It needed a new clutch too--another $600 with labor. That's what prompted me to sell it. My '02 RSX has no distributor or clutch (well, OK clutch packs in the auto) and has 145,000 miles with no major problems. I'm really liking how this car has held up compared to my Civic. I like to buy new and drive the wheels off, and the newer cars are better for this.

[WriConsult]

Just because cars last longer than they used to doesn't mean people aren't still buying them for just 4-5 years. The average new car is still retained less than 5 years. And sky-high used-car prices are tempting more people to sell, and buy new again, as they approach the 5 year mark.

It's been eye-opening for me to have had Carfax available in recent years. I think the typical car goes through 4, 5, even 8 owners in its lifetime. Cleanmpg has a few members who are adamant about buying new and then keeping a car for 10-15 years, but I think compared to the country as a whole it's actually quite rare for people to do that.

Last year's inflated used car prices pushed me into the new-car market for the first time in over a decade, but traditionally I've been a buy-USED-and-drive-the-wheels-off kind of buyer. In the past I've done very well by buying used Hondas and Subarus with 90,000 to 140,000 miles on them. Often these cars were on the market because the prior owner had just dropped a thousand or two to replace a couple of worn-out parts and got nervous (no offense, Jay - I did this once myself, and still regret selling one of my cars too soon). Then thanks to these owners' largesse, I got tens of thousands more miles out of them with fairly moderate additional maintenance, although in honesty I can't say I drove the wheels off because I usually still found another excited buyer.

I will say this strategy has not worked out so well with used VWs. If you must buy a VW, my belief is now that the best thing is to buy a NEW TDI -- WITH the extended warranty -- and get the hell rid of it when the extended warranty runs out. Thanks to TDI's resale value it will still be worth a lot at this point, and you won't have done too badly.

[PaleMelanesian]

In 1998 I bought a 1991 Suburban. Drove it for 2 years.
In 2000 I realized it was a mistake and traded it for a 4-year-old Civic. Drove it 12 years and counting...

My wife had a 1990 Dodge Dynasty.
Traded it for a 2004 Odyssey, in 2006. Drove it for 6 years and counting.

And that's all. I expect that between the two of us we might own a dozen cars total in our lifetimes. That makes it much more important to choose the right one when you do buy.

[Ophbalance]

Of the vehicles I've owned thus far (2 Dodge, 1 Ford, 2 Honda, 2 Hyundai/Kia, 1 Toyota), I'll have taken every single one over the 100k threshold. One Honda was junked, the other sold. The Dodges just plain fell apart around 150k. The Prius I'm hoping to take to 250k, which should be another 4-5 years. The Sedona I'm hoping to get 150-175k out of... which is around 3-5 more years.

I'd love to be in a situation where I only have one car payment at a time, but didn't set myself up very well for that. The Ford went earlier than expected (Escape) as we just outgrew it with our family. The tranny on that poor thing started acting up... again, so we weren't sorry to see it go.