The next 13 years of Automobile history is going to be amazing!
Wayne Gerdes -
CleanMPG - Aug 28, 2012
President Obama approves final 54.5 mpgUS CAFÉ’ by 2025 Standards. It’s a done deal now!
The Release
The Obama Administration has finalized standards that will increase fuel economy to the equivalent of 54.5 mpg for cars and light-duty trucks by Model Year 2025. Read 40 mpg, not 54.5 mpg.
This move will nearly double the fuel efficiency of those vehicles compared to new vehicles currently on our roads today. In total, the Administration’s national program to improve fuel economy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions will save consumers more than $1.7 trillion at the gas pump and reduce U.S. oil consumption by 12 billion barrels.
The historic standards issued today by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) build on the success of the Administration’s standards for cars and light trucks for Model Years 2011-2016. Those standards, which raised average fuel efficiency by 2016 to the equivalent of 35.5 mpg, are already saving families money at the pump.
Achieving the new fuel efficiency standards will encourage innovation and investment in advanced technologies that increase our economic competitiveness and support high-quality domestic jobs in the auto industry. The final standards were developed by DOT’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and EPA following extensive engagement with automakers, the United Auto Workers, consumer groups, environmental and energy experts, states, and the public. Last year, 13 major automakers, which together account for more than 90 percent of all vehicles sold in the United States, announced their support for the new standards. By aligning Federal and state requirements and providing manufacturers with long-term regulatory certainty and compliance flexibility, the standards encourage investments in clean, innovative technologies that will benefit families, promote U.S. leadership in the automotive sector, and curb pollution.
The Administration’s combined efforts represent the first meaningful update to fuel efficiency standards in decades. Together, they will save American families more than $1.7 trillion dollars in fuel costs, resulting in an average fuel savings of more than $8,000 by 2025 over the lifetime of the vehicle. For families purchasing a model Year 2025 vehicle, the net savings will be comparable to lowering the price of gasoline by approximately $1 per gallon.
Additionally, these programs will dramatically reduce our reliance on foreign oil, saving a total of 12 billion barrels of oil and reducing oil consumption by more than 2 million barrels a day by 2025 –
as much as half of the oil we import from OPEC each day.
The standards also represent historic progress to reduce carbon pollution and address climate change. Combined, the Administration’s standards will cut greenhouse gas emissions from cars and light trucks in half by 2025, reducing emissions by 6 billion metric tons over the life of the program – more than the total amount of carbon dioxide emitted by the United States in 2010.
President Obama announced the proposed standard in July 2011, joined by Ford, GM, Chrysler, BMW, Honda, Hyundai, Jaguar/Land Rover, Kia, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Toyota, and Volvo, as well as the United Auto Workers. The State of California and other key stakeholders also supported the announcement and were integral in developing this national program.
In achieving these new standards, EPA and NHTSA expect automakers’ to use a range of efficient and advanced technologies to transform the vehicle fleet. The standards issued today provide for a mid-term evaluation to allow the agencies to review their effectiveness and make any needed adjustments.
Major auto manufacturers are already developing advanced technologies that can significantly reduce fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions beyond the existing model year 2012-2016 standards. In addition, a wide range of technologies are currently available for automakers to meet the new standards, including advanced gasoline engines and transmissions, vehicle weight reduction, lower tire rolling resistance, improvements in aerodynamics, diesel engines, more efficient accessories, and improvements in air conditioning systems. The program also includes targeted incentives to encourage early adoption and introduction into the marketplace of advanced technologies to dramatically improve vehicle performance, including:
- Incentives for electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and fuel cells vehicles
- Incentives for hybrid technologies for large pickups and for other technologies that achieve high fuel economy levels on large pickups
- Incentives for natural gas vehicles
- Credits for technologies with potential to achieve real-world greenhouse gas reductions and fuel economy improvements that are not captured by the standards test procedures
Our Take
After reading just 100 pages of the 1,994 page document, here are some of the highlights and lowlights… Overall the CAFÉ numbers will be going up but the statute is so filled with holes that it will not make the dent some may have hoped thanks to the “footprint” rule, the A/C giveaway and credits for FCV, BEV and PHEVs.
There is still language in this thing allowing carry forward credits for FFVs which have not done a damn thing for anything other than to allow CAFÉ’ to be circumvented today and compromised probably well into the future.
54.5 mpgUS CAFÉ by 2025 Final Rule Document
Overview
The EPA and NHTSA, on behalf of the Department of Transportation, are issuing final rules to further reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve fuel economy for light-duty vehicles for model years 2017and beyond. On May 21, 2010, President Obama issued a Presidential Memorandum requesting that NHTSA and EPA develop through notice and comment rulemaking a coordinated National Program to improve fuel economy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions of light-duty vehicles for model years 2017-2025, building on the success of the first phase of the National Program for these vehicles for model years 2012-2016.
This Final Rule, consistent with the President’s request, responds to the country’s critical need to address global climate change and to reduce oil consumption. NHTSA is finalizing Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards for model years 2017-2021 and issuing augural standards for model years 2022-2025 under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, as amended by the Energy Independence and Security Act. NHTSA will set final standards for model years 2022-2025 in a future rulemaking. EPA is finalizing greenhouse gas emissions standards for model years 2017-2025 under the Clean Air Act. These standards apply to passenger cars, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty passenger vehicles, and represent the continuation of a harmonized and consistent National Program. Under the National Program automobile manufacturers will be able to continue building a single light-duty national fleet that satisfies all requirements under both programs while ensuring that consumers still have a full range of vehicle choices that are available today. EPA is also finalizing minor changes to the regulations applicable to model years 2012-2016, with respect to air conditioner performance, nitrous oxides measurement, offcycle technology credits, and police and emergency vehicles.
The agencies project that fuel savings will far outweigh higher vehicle costs, and that the net benefits to society of the MYs 2017-2025 National Program will be in the range of $326 billion to $451 billion (7 and 3 percent discount rates, respectively) over the lifetimes of those light duty vehicles sold in MYs 2017-2025.
Real-world CO2 is typically 25 percent higher and real-world fuel economy is typically 20 percent lower than the CO2 and CAFE compliance values discussed here. 163g/mi would be equivalent to 54.5 mpg, if the entire fleet were to meet this CO2 level through tailpipe CO2 and fuel economy improvements. The agencies expect, however, that a portion of these improvements will be made through improvements in air conditioning leakage and through use of alternative refrigerants, which would not contribute to fuel economy.
National Security
Improving our energy and national security by reducing our dependence on foreign oil has been a national objective since the first oil price shocks in the 1970s. Although our dependence on foreign petroleum has declined since peaking in 2005, net petroleum imports accounted for approximately 45 percent of U.S. petroleum consumption in 2011.34 World crude oil production is highly concentrated, exacerbating the risks of supply disruptions and price shocks as the recent unrest in North Africa and the Persian Gulf highlights. Recent tight global oil markets led to prices over $100 per barrel, with gasoline reaching over $4 per gallon in many parts of the U.S., causing financial hardship for many families and businesses. The export of U.S. assets for oil imports continues to be an important component of the historically unprecedented U.S. trade deficits. Transportation accounted for about 72 percent of U.S. petroleum consumption in 2010.35 Light-duty vehicles account for about 60 percent of transportation oil use, which means that they alone account for about 40 percent of all U.S. oil consumption.
Consumer Savings
MY 2025 vehicle and, even after accounting for the higher vehicle cost, consumers will save a net $3,400 to $5,000 (7 percent and 3 percent discount rate, respectively) over the vehicle’s lifetime.
This estimate assumes a gasoline price of $3.87 per gallon in 2025 with small increases most years over the vehicle’s lifetime. <-- There is a discount rate attached to this figure even though CA and Chicagoan’s are already paying well over $4.00 today but in any case, we can probably expect fuel to cost between 6 and $10/gallon in 2025 making the savings that much more spectacular for those that can afford to drive in that future projection.
In another section of the Final Rule relating to the consumer side of the coin, this was discussed:
The National Program is projected to provide significant savings for consumers due to reduced fuel use. Although the agencies estimate that technologies used to meet the standards will add, on average, about $1,800 to the cost of a new light duty vehicle in MY 2025, consumers who drive their MY 2025 vehicle for its entire lifetime will save, on average, $5,700 to $7,400 (7 and 3 percent discount rates, respectively) in fuel, for a net lifetime savings of
$3,400 to $5,000. This estimate assumes gasoline prices of $3.87 per gallon in 2025 with small increases most years throughout the vehicle’s lifetime.
Dissenters
The National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) opposed the MYs 2017-2025 proposed standards, arguing that the agencies should delay rulemaking since they believe there was no need to set standards so far in advance, that the costs of the proposed program are higher than agencies have projected, and that some (mostly low income) consumers will not be able to acquire financing for new cars meeting these more stringent standards.
Final Rule Credits or should we say loopholes?
Air Conditioning Improvement Credits
As proposed, EPA is establishing that the maximum total A/C credits available for cars will be 18.8 grams/mile CO2-equivalent and 24.4 grams/mile for trucks CO2-equivalent. The approaches used to calculate these credits for direct and indirect A/C improvement (i.e., improvements to A/C leakage (including substitution of low GHG refrigerant) and A/C efficiency) are generally consistent with those of the MYs 2012-2016 program, although there are several revisions. Most notably, a new test for A/C efficiency, optional under the GHG program starting in MY 2014, will be used exclusively in MY 2017 and beyond. This credit flexibility is required by EPCA/EISA further broken down by 5.0 and 7.2 g/mi respectively for car and truck A/C efficiency credits, and 13.8 and 17.2 g/mi respectively for car and truck alternative refrigerant credits.
All told, this is an easy 3 to 5 mpg gimme.
Off-Cycle Credits
EPA proposed and is finalizing provisions allowing manufacturers to continue to generate and use off-cycle credits to demonstrate compliance with the GHG standards. These credits are for measureable GHG emissions and fuel economy improvements attributable to use of technologies whose benefits are not measured by the two-cycle test mandated by EPCA.
Under its EPCA authority, EPA proposed and is finalizing provisions to allow manufacturers to generate fuel consumption improvement values for purposes of CAFE compliance based on the use of off-cycle technologies.
This appears to be FFV’s continuing deep and dark legacy at its finest…
Incentives for Electric Vehicles, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles, Fuel Cell Vehicles and compressed Natural Gas Vehicles
In order to provide temporary regulatory incentives to promote the penetration of certain “game changing” advanced vehicle technologies into the light duty vehicle fleet, EPA is finalizing, as proposed, an incentive multiplier for CO2 emissions compliance purposes for all electric vehicles (EVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) sold in MYs 2017 through 2021. The incentives are expected to promote increased application
of these advanced technologies in the program’s early model years, which could achieve economies of scale that will support the wider application of these technologies to help achieve the more stringent standards in MYs 2022-2025. In addition, in response to public comments persuasively explaining how infrastructure for compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles could serve as a bridge to use of advanced technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells, EPA is finalizing an incentive multiplier for CNG vehicles sold in MYs 2017 through 2021.
For EVs, PHEVs and FCVs, EPA is also finalizing, as proposed, to set a value of 0 g/mile for the tailpipe CO2 emissions compliance value for EVs, PHEVs (electricity usage) and FCVs for MY 2017-2021, with no limit on the quantity of vehicles eligible for 0 g/mi tailpipe emissions accounting. For MY 2022-2025, EPA is finalizing, as proposed, that 0 g/mi only be allowed up to a per-company cumulative sales cap, tiered as follows:
- 600,000 EV/PHEV/FCVs for companies that sell 300,000 EV/PHEV/FCVs in MYs 2019-2021
- 200,000 EV/PHEV/FCVs for all other manufacturers.
In other words, an infinite GHG emissions credit over the number of vehicles proposed to offset those vehicles that do not quite meet the programs goals. That is worth a lot of GHG credits per manufacturer!
Incentives for Use of Advanced Technologies including Hybridization for full-Size Pick-up Trucks
The agencies recognize that the standards presented in this final rule for MYs 2017-2025 will be challenging for large vehicles, including full-size pickup trucks. To help address this challenge, the program will, as proposed, contain incentives for the use of hybrid electric and other advanced technologies in full-size pickup trucks.
Footprint
The agencies note that these estimated combined fleet average mpg levels are projections and, in fact the agencies are establishing separate standards for passenger cars and trucks, based on a vehicle’s size or “footprint,” and the actual average achieved fuel economy and GHG emissions levels will be determined by the actual footprints and production volumes of the vehicle models that are produced.
Footprint is defined as a vehicle’s wheelbase multiplied by its average track width – in other words, the area enclosed by the points at which the wheels meet the ground. NHTSA and EPA adopted an attribute-based approach based on vehicle footprint for MYs 2012-2016 light-duty vehicle standards. The majority of commenter’s supported the continued use of footprint as the vehicle attribute; those comments and the agencies’ response are discussed below.
Under the footprint-based standards, the curve defines a GHG or fuel economy performance target for each separate car or truck footprint. NHTSA and EPA use the same vehicle category definitions for determining which vehicles are subject to the car curve standards versus the truck curve standards as were used for MYs 2012-2016 standards.
As in the MYs 2012-2016 rulemaking, a vehicle classified as a car under the NHTSA CAFE program will also be classified as a car under the EPA GHG program, and likewise for trucks. This approach of using common definitions allows the CO2 standards and the CAFE standards to continue to be harmonized across all vehicles for the National Program.
NHTSA also used the footprint attribute in its Reformed CAFE program for light trucks for model years 2008-2011 and passenger car CAFE standards for MY 2011.
A manufacturer will have separate footprint-based standards for cars and for trucks. The curves are mostly sloped, so that generally, larger vehicles (i.e., vehicles with larger footprints) will be subject to higher CO2 grams/mile targets and lower CAFE mpg targets than smaller vehicles.
This is because, generally speaking, smaller vehicles are more capable of achieving lower levels of CO2 and higher levels of fuel economy than larger vehicles. Although a manufacturer’s fleet average standards could be estimated throughout the model year based on the projected production volume of its vehicle fleet (and are estimated as part of the EPA certification process), the standards to which the manufacturer must comply will be determined by its final
model year production figures. A manufacturer’s calculation of its fleet average standards as well as its fleets’ average performance at the end of the model year will thus be based on the production-weighted average target and performance of each model in its fleet.
Footprint Commenters
EPA and NHTSA received a number of comments about the shape of the car and truck curves. Some commenter’s, including Honda, Toyota and Volkswagen, stated that the light truck curve was too lenient for large trucks, while Nissan and Honda stated the light truck curve was too stringent for small trucks; Porsche and Volkswagen stated the car curve was too stringent generally, and Toyota stated it was too stringent for small cars.
The actual footprint based 2025 mpgUS target for Large trucks looks like this:
Chevy Silverado (extended cab, 6.5 foot bed) -- 33.0 mpgUS CAFÉ or about 23 – 25 mpgUS on our 08 EPA after all the loopholes are cleared out of the discussion.
The fat lady has begun to sing
I have no idea how I am going to be able to read and comprehend this Rule over the next few months but maybe when I find a block of time to waste on the next 1,800 pages, I will give it a go
All told, there are some gaping holes but it will improve fuel economy capabilities and that in turn will help us all.
2015 Elantra and Accent’s with Hyundai BlueDrive full hybrid drivetrains (to name but two of hundreds of course
) here we come!
Linear Mode
