KBBs August 2012 Sales Predictions

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Volume is expected to be up an eye opening 19% across the board with Toyota and Honda set to experience much stronger sales gains after the earthquake recovery according to the analysts.

Wayne Gerdes - CleanMPG - Aug 23, 2012

2012 Ford’s F-Series will continue to lead the US new automobile sales pace with possibly > 50,000 trucks sold.

According to KBB, August new-car sales will hit 1,273,000 units overall, an 18.7 percent increase on a volume basis from last year and 14.3% in a daily selling rate basis with one additional day this August than last. In addition, retail sales volume will remain relatively flat month-over-month, outperforming seasonal expectations and SAAR should rise slightly from 14.25 million to maybe as high as 14.4 million.

Retail new car demand from consumers has remained steady despite a sluggish economic recovery. Fortunately Consumer sentiment improved slightly in August thanks to a growing belief that the housing market has begun to climb off the bottom which can only help auto sales.

Small Cars Reign

From a segment perspective, KBB expects a jump in sales of compact, subcompact and hybrid cars as consumers seek respite from ever increasing fuel prices. Gas prices have increased by $0.30 per gallon since early July, and as a result, increased interest in fuel-sipping small cars both in terms of online activity and retail sales volumes. Mid-size car sales should also remain strong at 16.8 percent of the overall US new car market.

With regards to manufacturers, Toyota outsold GM in terms of retail sales three out of the seven months of 2012 volume. Honda, while still firmly in fourth place in terms of retail sales volume in the U.S., has only trailed Ford by 10,000 units on average through much of 2012. Also in terms of retail sales.

August Automobile Manufacturers Sales Projections

Manufacturer	Aug-12	Aug-11	2012 CYTD
GM	225,950	218,479	+3.4%
Ford	191,600	174,800	+9.6%
Toyota	176,950	129,482	+36.7%
Chrysler	142,600	130,119	+9.6%
Honda	129,450	82,321	+57.3%
Hyundai-Kia	119,662	99,693	+20.0%
Nissan	105,000	91,541	+14.7%
VW	53,500	35,557	+50.5%
Total	1,273,000	1,072,379	+18.7%

[xcel]

Hi All:

JD Power and LMC Automotive added their $0.02 USD...

August new-vehicle selling rate is expected to be the highest monthly rate in more than four and one-half years, according to a monthly sales forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.

August new-vehicle retail sales are projected to come in at 1,066,200 units, which represents a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 12.3 million units. The year-over-year growth rate in retail sales continues a double-digit trend for a fourth consecutive month. Retail transactions are the most accurate measurement of true underlying consumer demand for new vehicles.

While incentives are down slightly in August, compared with July ($106 less per vehicle, on average), there are deals driving some activity as the model-year sell down takes hold. Consumers are pushing aside the economic risks, as the need to replace their current vehicle is matched by availability of both inventory and credit.

[xcel]

Hi All:

TrueCar adds their August Sales guesstimates to the mix…

The forecast for August 2012 has new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) expected to reach 1,255,392 units, up 17.2 percent from August 2011 and up 8.9 percent from July 2012 (on an unadjusted basis). Notice the 392 because that is really important in the projections

The August 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate ("SAAR") of 14.2 million new car sales, up from 12.1 million in August 2011 and up from 14.1 million in July 2012.

A new one that some may find interesting is this: The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:4 for August 2012

Manufacturer	August 2012 Forecast	Percent Change vs. August 2011
GM	227,087	+3.9%
Ford	191,456	+9.5%
Toyota	182,896	+41.3%
Chrysler	142,593	+9.6%
Honda	133,458	+62.1%
Hyundai/Kia	117,212	+17.6%
Nissan	97,022	+6.0%
Volkswagen	47,069	+32.8%
Industry	1,255,392	+17.2%

Incentive Spending

Incentive spending has decreased for the fourth consecutive month.

Manufacturer	August 2012 Incentives	Percent Change vs. July 2012	Percent Change vs. August 2011	Total Spending
Chrysler	$3,088	-0.9%	-8.8%	$431,637,629
GM	$2,990	-2.4%	-4.1%	$665,621,502
Nissan	$2,903	-8.4%	+4.7%	$276,128,088
Ford	$2,621	-2.9%	-2.9%	$491,954,513
Volkswagen	$2,568	-2.5%	+39.3%	$118,491,553
Honda	$2,216	-2.1%	-0.5%	$289,972,138
Toyota	$1,904	+4.3%	-21.2%	$341,374,800
Hyundai/Kia	$1,071	-0.6%	-16.9%	$123,088,801
Industry Average	$2,457	-2.0%	-6.0%	$3,023,475,823

It looks like Hyundai/Kia are going to have some future happy customers with lower depreciation hits if the incentive spending continues at this slow a rate.

All of the above are based off actual transaction data.

Wayne