Is the era of oil nearing its end?

[ALS]

Researchers at the International Monetary Fund, while not yet speaking for the fund, predicted in May that rising oil demand would drive prices to nearly $200 a barrel, “permanently,” within a decade.

Greg Gordon - MCCLATCHYDC - August 13, 2012

After nearly a decade of warnings that the world’s oil supply was running out, Americans now are hearing about technology breakthroughs that can unlock vast U.S. deposits of natural gas, help reverse a 40-year slide in domestic oil production and perhaps transform America into the next Middle East.

But despite the euphoria, there’s a major problem: The looming American oil glut may simply not be enough to sate the United States and the rest of motorized humanity.

Experts say soaring demand from China and India is sure to send oil prices back above $100 a barrel. A supply disruption in the coming years, they say, could trigger panic, gasoline hoarding and perhaps lead to lines at the pumps akin to the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the 1979 Iranian revolution.

Global shortfalls of other fuels also could develop sooner than many people think, as a planet of nearly 7 billion people and more than 1 billion gasoline-gulping vehicles strains the limits of combustible energy resources that are the underpinning of modern civilization.... [Read More]

[chilimac02]

Oil will not get that high. High prices will spur building more refineries and increase production as well as exploration. There are a lot of small companies who want some of that money and will go China to get it if they have to do so.

[bestmapman]

Oil is going to run out eventually. The time is now to start preparing for it.

[rhwinger]

Sure, there is plenty of oil. If you are willing to pay for an increasingly costly barrel of oil.

The question to me is how much can we pay for oil and continue to maintain a growth and oil based economy? They say our economy needs to grow to remain healthy. 3% a year seems to be a number economists like. With an economy that uses oil as it's primary source of energy, and feed stock for a lot of manufacturing (plastics, fertilizer, pharmaceuticals, ect), the price of oil is a big deal.

We can frac until the cows come home, but until we produce significant new sources of oil, (like tens of millions of barrels of oil a day), the price will continue to go up. The prices required to develop new, hard to reach reserves will be high, not cheaper.

[herm]

If you have the room, it may be a good idea to install a 250 gallon tank of gasoline in your backyard.. or buy an electric car or an electric bicycle or two if you are not too picky.

Probably means a used Prius will remain expensive

[CRT1]

Originally Posted by chilimac02

Oil will not get that high. High prices will spur building more refineries and increase production as well as exploration. There are a lot of small companies who want some of that money and will go China to get it if they have to do so.

Oil will indeed get that high, it is only a question of when.

All the untapped reserves have a price tag on them based on the cost of getting at that oil. When the $100/barrel reserves are depleted, oil will go up to $120/b, when that is depleted, $150/b and so on. I suspect we will turn a corner at some point since there are not too many new big finds being added to the portfolio.

We will never "run out" in a literal sense because there will always be reserves left that are too expensive to tap. We will "run out" in a practical sense when oil gets more expensive than the alternatives.

[50 mpg by 2012]

There is a mixed puzzle in this problem.

There is no question that one of the primary petroleum uses is as motive fuel.

However, I am wondering if there are higher valued uses ... like lubricants or petro chemicals ... with limited alternatives.

... and folks think the current level of indebtedness is a problem ... we are consuming our children's future.

[alvaro84]

Originally Posted by CRT1

We will never "run out" in a literal sense because there will always be reserves left that are too expensive to tap. We will "run out" in a practical sense when oil gets more expensive than the alternatives.

And one more thing: not only cost goes up, EROEI goes down as well. I see it as a very limiting factor in production.

@50 mpg by 2012: so there will be much oil that can't practically be used as energy source, but usable for "higher valued" purposes. But eventually we should find renewable alternatives for those too, IMHO.

[Right Lane Cruiser]

Originally Posted by bestmapman

Oil is going to run out eventually. The time is now to start preparing for it.

Yup -- though my wife doesn't believe it yet at least I've got something in the stable that will give us a bit of a buffer.

Originally Posted by herm

If you have the room, it may be a good idea to install a 250 gallon tank of gasoline in your backyard.. or buy an electric car or an electric bicycle or two if you are not too picky.

Originally Posted by 50 mpg by 2012

However, I am wondering if there are higher valued uses ... like lubricants or petro chemicals ... with limited alternatives.

... and folks think the current level of indebtedness is a problem ... we are consuming our children's future.

Precisely. That same reasoning applies to natural gas, too -- there is no better alternative for efficient and affordable heating.

[PaleMelanesian]

Aviation is a major "higher value" use. Aircraft need an energy dense liquid fuel. A car can handle an extra 500 lb of batteries (17% more in a 3000lb car). Can an airliner even carry enough batteries to go anywhere?

A 777-ER can carry 48,000 gallons of fuel, worth 37 kWh each, or 1,776,000 kWh total. That's 74,000 Leaf battery packs, each weighing 600 lb, for a total of 44 million pounds! That's more than seven Saturn V rockets!

No, a battery powered airliner doesn't work. Looks like we need liquid biofuel once oil becomes unattainable.