Next New Car Consideration Goes to Conventional, Hybrid, Diesel and Finally Electric

[xcel]

Harris Poll reveals little new other than as fuel rises, more become interested in alternative fuel vehicles.

Wayne Gerdes - CleanMPG - Aug. 12, 2012

2013 Ford C-MAX -- $25,995 to start (incl D&H) and a 47/47/47 mpgUS city/highway/combined triple.

The current public perception of hybrid vehicle ownership could make or break this all-new and exciting addition to the hybrid vehicle universe.

According to the most recent Harris poll, almost one-third of car owners (32%) report they are interested in purchasing a hybrid vehicle and 23% say that their interest in hybrids has increased from a year ago. Unfortunately interest and actually purchasing are two very different actions as Hybrid automobile ownership has declined from a high of 2.9 percent in 2008 to just 2.4 percent in 2011.

Acceptance of alternative fuel vehicles diminishes with age

• 32% under 35 are more interested
• 11% of those over the age of 67 are less interested

Among the alternative fuel choices for new automobile purchases, current and future owners identify that they will consider the following types of alternative fuel vehicle for their next purchase in the following percentages:

• Hybrid (gas/electric) vehicles (26%)
• Diesel (11%)
• All electric (9%) automobiles for their next purchase.

Almost two-thirds (63%) report that they are not likely to consider diesel or all electric options at all for their next car purchase.

Unfortunately consumer perception of the “Payback” reveals how little the average US consumer and Harris pollsters understand about alternative fuel vehicles

According to the 2012 Harris Poll AutoTECHCAST study, 32% of consumers expect that flexible fuel vehicles will see a return on investment in under a year when in fact it’s a meaningless question and response.

Regarding the reasons for choosing an alternative fuel vehicle, the survey revealed the following:

• 55% want to save money on the cost of refueling
  
• 26% have concerns for the environment
  
• 18% want to reduce our dependence on foreign oil

While alternative fuel vehicle acceptance was the overriding premise for the survey, Harris also included questions about vehicle quality.

Domestic or Import

• 35% of car owners believe American brand vehicle quality is lower than imports.
  
• 24% believe American-brand vehicle quality to be better than imports
  
• 42% believe both are the same

Gender differences in attitudes towards American-brand vehicle quality show that 27% of women believe American cars to be better in quality than imports compared to 18% of the male respondents.

Mike Chadsey, VP, Automotive Solutions Consultant, Harris Interactive:

"A majority of consumers will still consider traditional gas-powered vehicles for their next car and as automakers continue to improve gas mileage for these vehicles."

The above is the result of a Harris Poll of 2,634 U.S. adults (ages 18 and over) of who 1,991 own or lease a car, truck, minivan or SUV, surveyed online between May 7 and May 15, 2012.

Running counter to this most recent Harris poll, a Polk study released this past spring revealed that only 35 percent of current US hybrid owners chose to purchase another hybrid if they were in the market for a new car in 2011.

[thunderstruck]

When are you going to get a C-Max to see how well it does? I don't trust the EPA all that much, I'm more interested in real world from a guy like you.

[xcel]

Hi Thunderstruck:

Thank you for the word of confidence as colleagues always tell me just the opposite even after I tell them about the steady state testing

I will send in a request tonight.

Wayne

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Originally Posted by xcel

Running counter to this most recent Harris poll, a Polk study released this past spring revealed that only 35 percent of current US hybrid owners chose to purchase another hybrid if they were in the market for a new car in 2011.

Just to add some more context to the Polk information
- the Polk study was limited to people trading in vehicles
- the 35% was all hybrids and the average was notably higher for the Prius.
- in 2011 Ford stopped manufacturing the Ford Escape Hybrid
- the trend over the past 3 or 4 years was 39%. 2011 hybrid supply was disrupted by the quake in Japan, particularly in Q2 and Q3 and if you look at Polk's numbers for the 2011 quarters you see that they are:
Q1 2011 40.8%
Q2 2011 26.4%
Q3 2011 30.9%
Q4 2011 40.1%
Polk gave Q% for 2008 Q1 onwards and figures 2011 Q2 and Q3 were lower than any other quarter and Q2 lowest by far. They were clearly anomalous. Q1 was also likely slightly anomalously high as the oil price was high, the quake happened in the middle of March and hybrid sales jumped that month. Anyway, we if ignore the 2 obvious anomalies and the potentially anomalous Q1 the rolling 4 quarter average is 39.75% and has not been below 38.88% since Q3 2009.

As for hybrid misunderstanding: an ex-colleague of my wife had a daughter considering a hybrid but had heard that you have to replace the battery very 3 years. There's still junk out there.

[Jay]

For me it's not just about the money. I'm seriously considering an alternative fuel vehicle to get away from ethanol contaminated gasoline. The EPA is busy rolling out E15 even though few cars can run on it. I want to avoid it entirely. LP or CNG, hello!

[xcel]

Hi Jay:

With a new 2012 Civic LX equipped with the 5-speed MT available for < $15K locally and the CNG equipped variant (~ an LX trim) running at $26K, not a chance in hell no matter what the fuel costs Certified conversions cost so much less so I do not know why Honda charges so much for their carbon fiber wrapped tank in the trunk of a Civic?

Wayne

[Airbalancer]

a couple need from this poll is area you live, there is Norway an electric car would work
I can easily drive up to 600 km in a day
Living in small town is the pits sometimes

Also age / physical shape, I had my knees scoped done 9 months ago and it still a pain
Driving a Prius is painfully , my pickup is not
Where is the venza hybrid, or Santa Fe hybrid?

Diesel is so little choice out there, couple of vws, and pricey Bmws and MB

[Jay]

Originally Posted by xcel

Hi Jay:

With a new 2012 Civic LX equipped with the 5-speed MT available for < $15K locally and the CNG equipped variant (~ an LX trim) running at $26K, not a chance in hell no matter what the fuel costs Certified conversions cost so much less so I do not know why Honda charges so much for their carbon fiber wrapped tank in the trunk of a Civic?

Wayne

True this. And I don't know what makes the CNG Civic so expensive either. I was thinking more of a conversion, but for my aging RSX? Toyota's FT-bh hybrid prototype would be the ideal car. It gets good enough mileage that a small CNG or LP gas tank is feasible. I can dream anyway...

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Originally Posted by Jay

True this. And I don't know what makes the CNG Civic so expensive either.

Because Honda isn't particularly interested in them so they're charging a small volume rate. It's a compliance+ vehicle.

[herm]

perhaps they charge that much because government fleets dont mind paying?