Sequel for Dust to Dust "Study?" - Green Illusions?

[Chuck]

Although an academic, Zehner has deep Detroit-area automotive roots. He attended Kettering University (née General Motors Institute) in Flint and then worked for GM for five years, along with a stint in advanced vehicle development at the company’s Opel division in Europe for three years

Doug Newcomb - WIRED - July 3, 2012

Video: Dust to Dust illustrated. Just keep in mind that thousands of other products from the 787 to the iPhone are also source all over the world as seen in this video - it's dishonest to single out the Prius. Since China virtually corners the market on affordable rare earths for batteries and electric motors, discarded hybrids are definitely recycled.

The ICE is being phased out and there will be no one successor in the near or intermediate future. The EV is a great commute/work car, but not a likely road or family vehicle. --Ed.

To hear automakers and environmentalists tell it, electric vehicles (EVs) are the greenest and cleanest solution to personal mobility. But in his book Green Illusions: The Dirty Secrets of Clean Energy and the Future of Environmentalism, author Ozzie Zehner argues that EVs are more symbolism and marketing than environmental and fossil-fuel saviors. And in many cases, EVs are actually worse for the environment than traditional gas-powered vehicles.

To prove this, Zehner, a visiting scholar at UC Berkeley, points to what he views as the fuel-inefficient process of manufacturing EVs, and claims that they don’t make a big difference in greenhouse-gas emissions. He also contends that electric cars won’t protect the U.S. against future oil price fluctuations, as many claim, and that it’s a fallacy that prices for EVs will fall as the technology matures. He also maligns tax subsidies and government spending that support EV production as misguided. But two well-respected alternative powertrain reporters take issue with most of Zehner’s and the book’s arguments against EVs.... [Read More]

[phoebeisis]

Didn't read the article
But didn't the GM EV1 cost about $25000
Current ones- about $32,000 -with no more "claimed range" but according to knowledgible(a or i sic) folks here actually have 50% more range
So the price seems to be about the same- but newer ones have more range.
Effective price is a bit lower- but not a "lot lower"
But I guess you could argue that development sorta "stopped" for a while- but it didn't really stop,so....
Maybe he has a point on the cost of EVs
We need a 100 mile $25,000 EV with maybe 1 hour "refueling" to match up with the Prius

[CRT1]

Originally Posted by phoebeisis

Didn't read the article
But didn't the GM EV1 cost about $25000
Current ones- about $32,000 -with no more "claimed range" but according to knowledgible(a or i sic) folks here actually have 50% more range
So the price seems to be about the same- but newer ones have more range.

Phoebeisis, The EV1 was similar is size/seating to the Gen I Honda Insight, in other words tiny with only two seats AND it only had about a 60 mile usable range? That is not a car with mass market appeal. You couldn't buy it so I wouldn't even call it a REAL car or trust the $25,000 number in the least.

The Leaf is a fully capable car that seats 4 adults or 2 adults + 3 kids, etc with some cargo space like my FIT. Yes it still has limited range but is a viable option in a multi-car family. It is a REAL car and so I would call it one of the first real data points we have.

As for this guys book, I wonder which oil company is funding this his research?

[Right Lane Cruiser]

You've caught on quickly, CRT1.

My LEAF has taken over all but long distance family duty -- essentially all of our local errands and family trips are now done in the LEAF (as well as my commuting). The poor Insight hasn't been driven even once since the EV showed up and my wife's fuel usage in the FFH has dropped to less than half (as it used to be the family vehicle). I put 1490mi on the LEAF in the two months I've owned it so far so it is definitely doing its job... even though I only currently charge it in my garage on 110V service.

(For any concerned about the well being of my Insight I've been using the maintenance charger to keep the hybrid battery in shape and a trickle charger on the 12V. I'll take it out soon and set up a regular schedule to make sure it doesn't deteriorate.)

[xcel]

Hi Chuck:

This writer is apparently going after the EV, not the HEV. His arguments would not stand a chance against a Prius given that vehicle has only about double the amount of rare earths as a regular car but a BEV is a different animal. And its not the rare earths but pack pricing and refill time

When the price of both the LEAF and the Volt climbed in their second year, my initial thoughts on rapid and long term price declines appear early on to be just wishful thinking even though pack prices have come down. With $35 to $40K retail pricing for Volts, LEAFs and Focus Electrics, the vast majority will never purchase and the market share for BEVs will never reach a even the smallest percentage that can make a difference over the short to intermediate term

Wayne

[CRT1]

I read recently that battery cost/kWh is declining by 7% per year on average. No radical breakthroughs, but just continued engineering and improvement.

Give it 10 years and EVs will be cost competitive with ICEs and another 10 years and they will be range competitive. In the meantime, PHEVs will bridge the gap . . .

[herm]

Robert Rapier did a couple of recent articles that get into the "scamming" aspects of some present day environmentalists. His point is that the CO2 emissions coming from Asia are so overwhelming that there is very little effect that the US could have, even if we all switched to BEVs.. vast masses in China/India want electricity, and they are burning coal to get it.. so from that viewpoint the OP is correct in saying "author Ozzie Zehner argues that EVs are more symbolism and marketing than environmental and fossil-fuel saviors"

[CRT1]

Originally Posted by herm

Robert Rapier did a couple of recent articles that get into the "scamming" aspects of some present day environmentalists. His point is that the CO2 emissions coming from Asia are so overwhelming that there is very little effect that the US could have, even if we all switched to BEVs.. vast masses in China/India want electricity, and they are burning coal to get it.. so from that viewpoint the OP is correct in saying "author Ozzie Zehner argues that EVs are more symbolism and marketing than environmental and fossil-fuel saviors"

From my point of view there are three reasons to transition the US car fleet to primarily BEVs in the medium term as the technology matures: Efficiency, Carbon and Liberty. EVs are just more efficient than gas ICE vehicles. EVs produce about 1/2 to 1/3 the carbon per mile and that keeps getting better as we clean up our electricity generation. Lastly, and most importantly, electricity comes from many difference sources and most of it is domestically sourced. We need to balance the trade flows for fiscal and defense reasons.

Even if you negate the Carbon argument the other two reasons are compelling enough to encourage the move to BEVs. That said, this country was never about the Lowest Common Denominator. We screw up from time to time, but we should really be looking to do the right thing here in the States with regards to carbon emissions and then go to the table at the G9, G02, UN, etc and demand other countries do the same.

[xcel]

Hi CRT1:

I agree with a number of points but not the BEV just yet. With BEV cost reductions there comes a cost reduction in PHEVs. One less car on the road is better no matter how it is powered. With a BEV, you must have a backup in most cases. With a PHEV you don't. That is one less car in the garage, one less insurance payment and one less payment while still providing its owner a daily commute on mostly if not entirely on electricity.

Wayne

[herm]

Wayne, you dont need two cars with unlimited range in the family garage.. most families have more than one car so make one a BEV and the other one a conventional car. BEVs are not marketed to apartment dwellers either, or those that commute 120 miles in one day.