We have been estimating 14.5 million since Jan. 1 although with the slight US economic slowdown as of late, who knows?
Wayne Gerdes -
CleanMPG - April 29, 2012
A Ford F-150 with its 3.5L EcoBoost parked near the St. Louis Arch, the Gateway to the West. The only thing we can be sure of about April 2012 sales figures is that there will be more F-Series sold than any other guaranteed.
KBB is projecting April new-vehicle sales to reach 1.15 million units or 14.0 million seasonally adjusted sales rate (SAAR), for the April 2012 sales period. The daily selling rate should improve by 11.6 percent with three fewer selling days this year compared to 2011.
Earlier this month, KBB increased its annual forecast up to 14.2 million units based on the Q1 sales pace, which averaged 14.5 million SAAR.
Many indicators point to continued strength in consumer demand and if inventory can keep pace, the industry will continue to post strong gains in the months ahead. The 54 day vehicle supply currently available in the U.S. should be more than adequate but supply has declined steadily since the end of January and further inventory declines may be on the horizon. Think Hyundai and their manufacturing facilities almost maxxed out around the world and a recent explosion at a plant in Germany could shut down production of a vital plastic resin that is used in brake lines, fuel lines and other flexible hoses for several months. Although it remains unclear how drastically this will impact the current pace of the auto sales recovery, auto manufacturers are taking the implications seriously. More than 200 representatives from auto manufacturers and supply companies met in Detroit in early April to discuss solutions and alternatives.
The Individual Players
GM should recover market share this month after dropping from 18.2 percent to 16.5 percent share from February to March.
Nissan's 46 percent year-over-year increase should be taken with some impartiality as sales were especially soft during April 2011.
Chrysler should continue to post impressive gains with a 13.6 percent gain year-over-year, beating GM and Ford which KBB believes will see an April volume decline. And the real reason is there are only 24 selling days in April 2012 versus 27 in April of 2011.
Toyota and Hyundai will continue to perform well, but they will find it difficult to increase their share beyond current levels given their lean inventories;
currently at just 32 and 27 day supply, respectively.
Projected Top 9 Manufacturers - April 2012 Sales Results
| | Sales Volume Apr-12 | Sales Volume Apr-11 | Year over year % | Market Share Apr-12 | Apr-11 | Year over year % |
| Manufacturer | | | | | | |
| GM | 198,604 | 232,538 | -14.6% | +17.3% | +20.1% | -2.8% |
| Ford | 179,088 | 189,284 | -5.4% | +15.6% | +16.3% | -0.7% |
| Toyota | 164,164 | 159,540 | +2.9% | +14.3% | +13.8% | +0.5% |
| Chrysler | 133,168 | 117,225 | +13.6% | +11.6% | +10.1% | +1.5% |
| Honda | 107,912 | 124,799 | -13.5% | + 9.4% | +10.8% | -1.4% |
| Nissan | 104,468 | 71,526 | +46.1% | + 9.1% | +6.2% | +2.9% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 101,024 | 108,828 | -7.2% | +8.8% | +9.4% | -0.6% |
| VW | 41,328 | 38,679 | +6.8% | +3.6% | +3.3% | +0.3% |
| | | | | | | |
| Total | 1,148,000 | 1,157,928 | -0.9% | NA | NA | NA |
While GM may see declines, it will be particularly interesting to see Ford, Toyota, Hyundai, Kia and VW which I suspect will experience higher sales. Honda will probably experience less with GM off about what is shown. Of course the results are at best just guesses with the actual provided just a few short days from now.
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