Without 300,000 originations, the economy is still mired.
Wayne Gerdes -
CleanMPG - Aug. 14, 2011
Rail freight moving through Chicago.
This week the Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported modest gains in weekly rail traffic, with U.S. railroads originating 287,321 carloads for the week ending August 6, 2011, up 0.4 percent compared with the same week last year. Intermodal volume for the week totaled 235,568 trailers and containers, up 1.9 percent compared with the same week last year.
Thirteen of the 20 carload commodity groups posted increases from the comparable week in 2010, including: iron and steel scrap, up 37.6 percent; metal and products, up 14.2 percent, and farm products excluding grain, up 13.6 percent. Groups showing a decrease in weekly traffic included: grain, down 22.5 percent, and waste and nonferrous scrap, down 14.2 percent.
Weekly carload volume on Eastern railroads was up 3.7 percent compared with the same week last year. In the West, weekly carload volume was down 1.8 percent compared with the same week in 2010.
US Cumulative Rail Volumes
For the first 31 weeks of 2011, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 8,938,230 carloads, up 2.2 percent from the same point last year, and 6,987,350 trailers and containers, up 6.7 percent from last year.
Canadian Cumulative Rail Volumes
Canadian railroads reported 72,493 carloads for the week, up 2.3 percent compared with the same week last year, and 47,353 trailers and containers, down 4.3 percent compared with 2010. For the first 31 weeks of 2011, Canadian railroads reported cumulative volume of 2,296,140 carloads, up 2.4 percent from the same point last year, and 1,461,867 trailers and containers, up 2.2 percent from last year.
Mexican Cumulative Rail Volumes
Mexican railroads reported 13,918 carloads for the week, up 1.6 percent compared with the same week last year, and 9,034 trailers and containers, up 23.9 percent. Cumulative volume on Mexican railroads for the first 31 weeks of 2011 was 444,419 carloads, up 5 percent compared with the same point last year, and 247,706 trailers and containers, up 24.5 percent.
North American Cumulative Rail Volumes
Combined North American rail volume for the first 31 weeks of 2011 on 13 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 11,678,789 carloads, up 2.3 percent compared with the same point last year, and 8,696,923 trailers and containers, up 6.3 percent compared with last year.
As a leading indicator, without a substantial expansion in rail volumes, expect to see the US economy engrained in the settling pattern it currently resides.
Coal being such a large percentage of the US’ overall rail volume is being displaced with Natural Gas at generating stations around the country given its lower cost and improving availability. This in turn is depressing the overall rail shipments somewhat and muddying up the picture of the overall health of the US economy.
And of course wood products which have a long way to go before reaching the home building booms peaks of 2006/2007.
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