US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015

[ALS]

Surplus oil production capacity could disappear by 2012 a report from US Joint Forces Command, says.

Terry Macalister April - GUARDIAN - April 12, 2010

The US military has warned that surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact.

The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top $100 a barrel.

"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day," says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.

It adds: "While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India."

The US military says its views cannot be taken as US government policy but admits they are meant to provide the Joint Forces with "an intellectual foundation upon which we will construct the concept to guide out future force developments."

The warning is the latest in a series from around the world that has turned peak oil – the moment when demand exceeds supply – from a distant threat to a more immediate risk.

The Wicks Review on UK energy policy published last summer effectively dismissed fears but Lord Hunt, the British energy minister, met concerned industrialists two weeks ago in a sign that it is rapidly changing its mind on the seriousness of the issue.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency remains confident that there is no short-term risk of oil shortages but privately some senior officials have admitted there is considerable disagreement internally about this upbeat stance.... [Read More]

[Harold]

Well maybe they should go back to horses and sail boats?<grin> May keep the prices down for the rest of us. They got too many Hummers, F18 or what ever and Jet aircraft. They use more fuel than all other things combined?
H

[Tochatihu]

The referenced report (which I have not yet read) can be downloaded here:

http://www.peakoil.net/

DAS

[Earthling]

The fact is, most of our prosperity in the last 100 years has been from cheap energy.

As we say goodbye to cheap energy, we may also be bidding farewell to prosperity.

It's nice climbing the socio-economic ladder, not so nice falling off it.

Harry

[Chuck]

Put up a poll.

Since the messenger of this PeakOil alert is not an enviro-wacko, some deaf ears may start to listen....sad commentary about people today that could not care less on a story is credible, but evaluate it solely on if they like the messenger.

[WriConsult]

I voted no on the poll. A lot of folks who deny Peak Oil today either (1) aren't going to listen to anyone until gas hits $8 a gallon or (2) will dismiss this as being influenced by the new Commander-in-Chief.

[noflash]

How will the people even know of the story?

It's not on MSNBC's front page. It lost out to Steven Segal.

EDIT: Also, not on CNN or Foxnews.

nf

[s.cerevisiae]

This report is a big wakeup call, I downloaded it and sent it to my co-workers, but I have been watching the news and no report of it that I noticed. Tiger is more important.

I voted no because people won't change their habits until the price pressure forces them to change. I observed this during the last big price spike in gas. When it spiked the roads were empy, people were conserving by not making unnessary trips, combining trips or shopping online. It was nice, I had the roads to myself and I even bicycled to work more - a pain in the butt since work is not very bike friendly. As soon as the prices dropped everyone was out on the road again. Even today at almost $3 a gallon drivers will stomp the gas to get around me to slam on the breaks at the red light that I'm coasting up to.

From my observations most peoples consuming habits are driven more by emotion and pocketbook than reason or logic.

I don't like taxes but I believe that the best thing the Government could do is to heavly tax oil to slow down consumption and to pay for nuclear, solar, geothermal, etc. It won't be popular but slamming ourselves into a no energy situation will be much worse. However, since the gov usually mismanages the taxes they do get (PORK) I'm not optimistic even with taxing oil. They would probably just give the money to the ethanol producers or other failed programs.

Scot

[Tochatihu]

I very much agree that this report has not been treated as front-page media stuff.

DAS

[St. Mushroom]

So does this mean a massive military withdrawal by 2015? Or do we just hunker down and reduce missions substantially?