The automaker benefiting most from Toyota's pain is....

[Chuck]

Honda, followed by Ford.

Christine Tierney - DETROITNEWS - Feb 21, 2010

Long-term, or a blip? --Ed.

Honda Motor Co. appears to be the biggest beneficiary of a steep drop in sales this month of Toyota Motor Corp. vehicles, according to a study by auto research firm TrueCar.com.

Toyota's retail market share has slumped more than five points to 12.1 percent in mid-February from 17.5 percent on Jan. 21, when the Japanese automaker issued its second big U.S. recall. Toyota has recalled more than 6 million vehicles in the United States since November, mostly for acceleration-related issues.

...Its gains might seem surprising, as Honda was among the few car companies that didn't offer incentives to customers trading in Toyotas.

But TrueCar analyst Jesse Toprak said he wasn't surprised. "The most cross-shopped brand for Toyota is Honda, and has been for a long time," he said.... [Read More]

[ALS]

I've been thinking about this mess and wondering if many of these Toyota lost sales are customers putting off their purchases with a wait and see attitude. I don't think as many consumers as you think are not running to the competition and making purchases as the media would like you to think.

The down side to the U.S. manufactures is if the public gets the sense that this whole cluster-frack was a put up job by the Government and the UAW. Then the public's retribution towards GM and Chrysler could really get ugly.

[Butterfly Mage]

It's not like I was going to consider Chrysler just because Toyota has had a few recalls. It makes sense that Honda would benefit from the recall problem; this company is well-known for building thrift, efficient cars of high quality.

Americans have very short attention spans. The next Tiger Woods scandal or the next phony-baloney "recovery" statement from the Beltway will make people forget about bad brakes or sticky accelerators.

[GreenVTEC]

GM, Ford, and Hyundai are putting forward some very impressive products. Impressive enough people who take a chance on one may never see a reason to go back to Toyota.

This is going to stretch long term. The more people avoiding Toyota in the short term, the more people who are going to go "OMG! Toyota isn't so superior anymore!"

[Nevyn]

I think the impact will lessen with time, but will always be there. EVERYONE has been knocked off their high-horse at this point, and it's making for benefits to the consumer from just about every brand.

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The gains are, I think, long-term.

1) Toyota sells on reliability
2) Much of a maker's reputation is based on prejudice.
3) Other manufacturers have significantly improved reliability.

So, if people go to another manufacturer instead they'll probably find they are more reliable than they expected and it weakens Toyota's star power.

[chibougamoo]

The Toyota-Honda change-in-balance also seems to be carrying over into the used Hybrid market (at least, locally) --- 3 months back, there were about equal numbers in Auto Trader and Kijiji (specifically, low mileage 2006-2009 cars with similar pricing restraints). Today, that has changed into 2.5+ Toyota Prius for every 1 Honda Civic Hybrid on offer.

Pricing on the Toyotas hasn't come down, although the Civic Hybrid has gone up a bit.

[Blackbelt]

I said it before and i will say it again.
Americans are fickle and have short memories.

32 years ago, Ford finally owned up to selling exploding Pintos on purpose, and 500+ people died.
Less than 10 years ago, Ford finally owned up to the rolling Explorer debacle, and the 250+ people who died.
Yet, today, many people(including some on this forum) are singing Fords praises to the heavens.
Toyota's recall issues have been traced to MAYBE 19 deaths.

I think Toyota will come out just fine. I would buy a Toyota tomorrow(over any Honda), with no qualms. Thanks to all this, i will get a better deal if i do(at least for a while)

[Taliesin]

Mainly short-term.

There will be a few that will remember and hold this against them, but not enough to really make a difference.

[WriConsult]

I'd have guessed Ford first, then Honda. Ford because they overlap Toyota's entire product line, while Honda does not. Honda next because while they don't overlap Toyota's entire product line, Toyota overlaps theirs. And on most of the products Honda offers, they are the closest competitor to Toyota in terms of market segment, quality and reliability: Civic vs. Corolla, Accord vs. Camry, Odyssey vs. Sienna, CR-V vs. RAV4, HCH vs. Prius, Pilot/MDX vs. Highlander/RX400.

I do think it will be relatively short term. Probably more than a few months, but not more than a couple of years. Then again, some of the stuff coming out today is pretty damning. Even if Toyota's defects have caused only a fraction of the deaths that Ford's did in the past, some evidence is emerging of a similar internal attitude. Time will tell.