Peak Oil, Cars, and Depressions

[Chuck]

Author suggests the real reason for the Volt is to convince the Feds GM is worth saving because they have the next Prius

Jim Kingsdale - Seeking Alpha - November 16, 2008

Interesting if long read -- Ed.

As the global economy heads into terra incognita and the stock market tries to prove it has seen the worst my thoughts, for whatever they are worth, are:

1. Some economic observers such as John Thane, the CEO of Merrill Lynch, and JC Penney’s CEO Mike Ullman are saying the current economy is comparable with the Great Depression. We need fiscal stimulus (since we’re nearly out of gas in terms of monitory stimulation potential). How much? If we’re going into a depression the quantity of fiscal stimulus needed to reinvigorate consumer spending on housing and discretionary items may be too great for any government to contemplate or have the courage to implement. Paul Krugman addressed this point on 11/14 and 11/10; he estimated that $600B of U.S. stimulus will be needed. Even if such stimulus were to be attempted once Obama is in charge, the time needed for it to be effective is so great that we are still in for at least 12 - 18 months of increasing weakness and thus probably 6 - 12 months away from a market bottom...[Read More]

[Elixer]

The Volt has always been a PR stunt more than a mainstream automobile for GM. With a cost of $35-45,000 for a volt, when you will be able to get a prius or insight for less than $25,000, it's not a car that the average joe is ever going to take a serious look at. I don't think his logic is unsound, but I honestly don't believe GM was smart enough to know that they would be in the crisis they are in now. He gives them too much credit. They're not manipulative, just not bright. They just watched gas prices go up with their big paychecks going "duh dudh duhdddhduh"

[greenrider]

What's the saying, "a day late and a dollar short." Or in the Volt's case, $10-$15K short compared to a Prius or Insight II.

[voodoo22]

We won't know until it's released, but all the fronting and bragging by GM about how much better their mystery product is than a proven product, is annoying and polarizing to me.

I have no faith that GM can pull this off and until they prove otherwise, I think the Volt is nothing more than PR.

[PaleMelanesian]

Very good point raised:

All the zero percent, employee pricing, and cash back deals have cannibalized future sales. Those who would have waited a year or two, and might be buying now, already made their purchases.

[Radio_tec]

Originally Posted by Delta Flyer

Author suggests the real reason for the Volt is to convince the Feds GM is worth saving because they have the next Prius
[Read More]

This is a joke right? That certainly can't be the case! For GM to decide to build the Volt all the way from the vantage point of December of '06 they would have think several years down the road and anticipate the huge spikes in gasoline prices followed by the mother of all market crashes. Sorry but I don't give Waggoner and Lutz that much credit for seeing that far down the road. They can only comprehend things in quarterly earnings fashion and not much beyond that. They got a black eye from crushing the EV-1 and Toyota's marketing of a technology they should have cornered after 2001. They were reacting to the market and not being proactive. This author certainly has a fine sense of humor though.