International Energy Association Predictions

[Bike123]

The world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.

A pessimistic supply outlook from the IEA could further rattle an oil market that already has seen crude prices rocket over $130 a barrel, double what they were a year ago.

read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1211...googlenews_wsj

or http://www.energybulletin.net/44630.html

[Bike123]

If you do the math on the Reserves/Production Rates (side bar in the article) things look pretty good. However, both the oil field with the highest R/P ratio (Burgan) and the one with the lowest (Cantarell) have officially peaked -- they are depleted to the point where production can't be brought as high as it was a few years ago. OPEC reserve estimates don't mean much. Unlike in the US, where accounting rules lead to conservative estimates, OPEC reserve numbers were manipulated to get higher production quotas. Once a few countries doubled their reserves overnight, the other OPEC nations followed suit.

I'm watching news coverage of a major tornado < 20 miles from here, plus 6 smaller ones, but I think this may be more disturbing, even though I've been concerned about peak oil for over 5 years. Unlike the undamaged house next to a destroyed one, no one, not even the totally car-free, will be spared by the coming energy shortfall.