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The Long Emergency

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Old 07-30-2008, 08:31 AM
shkelley shkelley is offline
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Re: The Long Emergency

Hello,

New poster Shaun Hatcher Kelley from the Big Square Thing aka "Wyoming" here. To get anywhere here requires quite a lot of gasoline, so I am quite interested in this forum. I also have a 6-year-old son. Just finished The Long Emergency by J.H. Kunstler. I don't want to believe what he says, but I suspect that there is a lot of truth in this book. I have been feeling the futility of Suburbia for years. This is why I deserted it decades ago. I think I may buy a team of sled dogs and a big travois 8-)*

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Old 07-30-2008, 08:52 AM
shkelley shkelley is offline
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Re: The Long Emergency

Quote:
Originally Posted by bomber991 View Post
What the... isn't that from Reading Rainbow?

Anyways, wasn't there some made-for-tv movie about peak oil happening? It came on like 3 or 4 years ago though I think. Yeah, back when I had a job so I never got to see it.

I can't read books though, I lack the dedication. Somehow I can sit on my computer and read and read and read for 12 hours a day, but opening a book and reading it for an hour, and then repeating that for a week or two till the book is finished, near impossible for me.
Holy Harshal McLuhan, Batman

Just kidding, dood. That took some courage to admit. I wonderwhat the energy savings would be if we did away with TV as we know it?
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Old 07-30-2008, 09:00 AM
Shiba3420 Shiba3420 is offline
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Re: The Long Emergency

Really the better argument for collapse is the energy requirement for food stuffs. At the end of nomads and the beginning of farming, a person could barely produce enough food to keep themselves alive. Thats why a crop failure could cause mass deaths. As time went on, one person could produce more and more food. Until the days of mechination and fertilers, however it rarely exceeded 2 to 10 person's food by one farmer. People who could master this, could free up more people for research, history, art, war and other projects....i.e. modern civ. However, as people were able to produce more, it was usually by having more productive crops on a fixed amount of land (one person can only tend so much land). This tended to deplete the land. Crop rotation helped, but also tended to reduce the yield of an individual. In comes technology, fertilizers, and machines. Now suddenly one person can generate enough food for 100 to 1000 people. That a lot of people freed up from agriculture. Again, the problem is we have to mine lots of things to put back into the ground to replace the stuff the crops took out. There could well be a breaking point, where land won't be so easily replinished either because the energy becomes too expense to perform the process (doubt it), or because the material needed are not easily available (more likely). Then suddenly we have to go back to old school farming where an acre of land feeds one instead of ten. People will need to tend their crops carefully. A lot of people will need to start farming again. Maybe 25% of the population will need to be involved (consider that 25% are never available due to age (too young/old) or physical condition). Notice that cities go away...in favor of local towns to provide the local farmers needs. Maybe we will still have large city centers where material are shipped out for an entire state, maybe not. Either way, cities loose a great deal of importance. And frankly they aren't needed. Most people working in a city are doing the jobs we can either do for ourselves (cooking/cleaning), don't need in the country (most police, drawing blanks on others), or don't require centralization (almost every while colar job out there). We can farm a few hours a day, go do our online why collar jobs, cook means in the background, and spend time with our families. Frankly, even this rather grim scenerio, isn't really all that grim. Most scenerios don't have to be if they are well thought out. To a certain degree, I'd love to see us all go more small town, agricultural, and family oriented.

Frankly I doubt we will ever need it. Already we are seeing that protiens can be lab grown for a fraction of the energy of raising livestock (although at 100 to 1000 times the price, but that should come down). We can farm massive amounts of alge for food and fuel. While mass change may be needed, and that change doesn't sound good, it could be very gradual and much less painful than we think. The real danger is of us all digging our heels in and refusing to let go of the ways of our past. How many of us have grandparents who grew up on the farm and wished we could go back? A few of us did go back (not me) more for the romance than the reality. If we have to revert, the same may be true going the other way....gosh grandchild, you would have loved the big cities....

I don't believe that humans, as a species, is good.
I do believe that humans, as individuals, are good.
I don't believe that humans, as individuals, know what is good for us a species.
I do believe that humans, as individuals, think they know what is good for us a species.

We are a strange collection of things. Like stones picked up from the dirt...some are ugly, some shine, and most look better when cleaned up.
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Old 07-31-2008, 07:51 PM
chief302 chief302 is offline
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Re: The Long Emergency

I agree that more people will have to contribute to agriculture. This can be accomplished in many ways...even in the cities and suburbs. I'm beginning to brush up on my gardening skills, just in case.
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Old 08-01-2008, 05:43 PM
lnmcmahan lnmcmahan is offline
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Re: The Long Emergency

Quote:
Originally Posted by chief302 View Post
blind faith in new technology is misplaced and a wholesale change in lifestyle is nearly inevitable.
Duh!!! This is the great flaw in the American character. We think we can dig ourselves into a hole with consumptive living, then invent a technological miracle to spring us out!

When it comes to fuel, blame big oil, when it comes to food blame Archer Daniels Midland, but WE have bought into the race to consume that brought us to where we are today!

Larry
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Old 08-01-2008, 05:47 PM
lnmcmahan lnmcmahan is offline
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Re: The Long Emergency

Quote:
Originally Posted by bomber991 View Post
What the... isn't that from Reading Rainbow?

Anyways, wasn't there some made-for-tv movie about peak oil happening? It came on like 3 or 4 years ago though I think. Yeah, back when I had a job so I never got to see it.

I can't read books though, I lack the dedication. Somehow I can sit on my computer and read and read and read for 12 hours a day, but opening a book and reading it for an hour, and then repeating that for a week or two till the book is finished, near impossible for me.
Audiobooks, baby, audio books. Download them to your MP3 player, put it in your ear, hit play, and go about doing whatever you were doing. Whoever goes to the library anyway?!

Larry
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Old 08-03-2008, 08:38 PM
chief302 chief302 is offline
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Re: The Long Emergency

Quote:
Originally Posted by lnmcmahan View Post
Audiobooks, baby, audio books. Download them to your MP3 player, put it in your ear, hit play, and go about doing whatever you were doing. Whoever goes to the library anyway?!

Larry
How about audiobooks from the library?
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Old 08-03-2008, 08:40 PM
chief302 chief302 is offline
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Re: The Long Emergency

Quote:
Originally Posted by lnmcmahan View Post
Duh!!! This is the great flaw in the American character. We think we can dig ourselves into a hole with consumptive living, then invent a technological miracle to spring us out!

When it comes to fuel, blame big oil, when it comes to food blame Archer Daniels Midland, but WE have bought into the race to consume that brought us to where we are today!

Larry
I think there is plenty of blame to go around...without the nearly insatiable demand, the large corporate suppliers would have little influence...
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Old 08-03-2008, 09:49 PM
degnaw degnaw is offline
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Re: The Long Emergency

I don't think suburbs will actually "die"- many of the single family homes might be split into apartments but I'd think that people who buy $700,000 homes should be able to afford gas, even if it's $50/gal or $50/gallon-of-gas-equivalent or something. That's only $12,500 a year, at 10,000mi/yr and 40mpg (rich people should be able to afford that, right?).
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Old 08-03-2008, 09:59 PM
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mparrish mparrish is offline
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Re: The Long Emergency

Quote:
Originally Posted by degnaw View Post
.......... but I'd think that people who buy $700,000 homes..........
I'm moving to Cincy............
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