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The Long Emergency

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Old 08-03-2008, 10:28 PM
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xcel xcel is online now
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Re: The Long Emergency

Hi All:

___My thoughts about the suburbs or middle to upper middle class… Who here can afford a Prius or Prius PHEV conversion? Who here could afford a Volt even at $45,000? Most everyone probably.

___If some believe the authors prediction that a suburban dweller is going to wait and act only when gasoline is $50/gal., I think they are mistaken. If gasoline over the next 5 years were to go to $15.00 per, most will adapt into the Electrified world far faster than we are doing so currently. More importantly, what happens to the Eastern societies when price goes to that level? Do they continue to buy Tata’s? the answer is no as the fuel costs drive them out of the market place long before we hit $15.00 per gallon let alone $50.00. It is simply a matter of price and income status determining action. Most books show inaction all the way until the disastrous results are revealed and that is not really what happens “if” the price increase due to supply decrease is a slow enough transition.

___The reality of fast increasing commodities is occurring today. It kills economies that rely on said commodities and is doing so in the US as we speak. Not just Ford, GM and Chrysler trying to sell their FSP’s but the RV maker, the shipping industry, even someone making wine in the hills of California. Fast increasing costs put strain on many business’ and that strain moves throughout an economy very quickly and can lead to disastrous results. The faster the change in prices, the harder the adjustment and this is where we are extremely vulnerable. The vulnerability imho comes about through the $. If the Dollar were to free fall at some point in the future (there are many plausible reasons that this could occur), our prices rise whereas our trading partners simply back away and wait until the dust settles. In that case, $50/gallon could be the outcome for us but other economies currency appreciation yields no increase and we are really put to the test. Our goods and services become ultra-competitive in the market place due to labor costs becoming next to nothing (think China) but the pain in transition shuts down the countries economic activity almost overnight.

___We can and will transition but how painful is up to us. With our current direction, it is going to get a lot worse. With the next new thing (EESTOR, Aptera, PHEV’s, BEV and/or solar), maybe the transition will be a little easier? Who knows but I do not think we will see massive shut down of services where everyone grabs a gun and the US turns into a Wild Wild West? At least I hope not anyway?

___Good Luck

___Wayne
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Old 08-03-2008, 10:44 PM
degnaw degnaw is offline
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Re: The Long Emergency

This by far isn't representative of the whole of cincy, but in Indian Hill (a suburb) the average household income is $160,000 so I can imagine the houses there are pretty expensive. In my town most houses are between 300-500 thousand.

And anyways, $50/gal wasn't really the point at which I thought people would start making radical changes; it was just a random price that I picked to try to demonstrate how "cheap" it is to the affluent.

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Originally Posted by xcel View Post
BEV and/or solar
This is off topic, but when I read that I imagined a line of solar powered transport trucks (that can't easily use battery power) crawling along in the right lane at 10mph because of some clouds.
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Old 08-05-2008, 12:00 PM
fireflyfarm fireflyfarm is offline
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Re: The Long Emergency

My wife and moved back to her parents' 50-acre farm on July 1. It has been in their family since 1828. The barn has no electricity. We have spring water, and a septic-field sewage system. Our tractor is Diesel, with a WVO conversion underway. I'm looking forward to busting my rear growing food.
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Old 08-05-2008, 02:43 PM
chief302 chief302 is offline
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Re: The Long Emergency

Quote:
Originally Posted by fireflyfarm View Post
My wife and moved back to her parents' 50-acre farm on July 1. It has been in their family since 1828. The barn has no electricity. We have spring water, and a septic-field sewage system. Our tractor is Diesel, with a WVO conversion underway. I'm looking forward to busting my rear growing food.
Good luck in that endeavor...what type of crops are you growing?
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