Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

Gasoline prices slip as analysts say peak nears

Dan X. Mcgraw - FUELFIX - April 12, 2012

We will see --Ed.

Analysts say rising gasoline prices might be over as many large metro areas, including Chicago and Los Angeles, appear to have hit their gas peaks earlier this year. Analysts say the news likely means lower prices for drivers in the coming months.

According to AAA gas gauge, gasoline prices dropped an average of 4 cents in the 28 states that saw a weekly decrease at the pump this week. Prices increased by an average of 2 cents in the 21 states where prices rose.

Four states (California, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio) have seen a multi-cent decrease during the past month, leading many analysts to say national prices are at their peak.

“Gasoline prices in the hardest hit areas have finally shown signs of relief, with gasoline prices falling now in Chicago as they have for a few weeks in California,” said Patrick DeHaan, a gasoline analyst for GasBuddy.com.

DeHaan said refineries are slowly coming out of maintenance and boosting production that could cause gasoline prices to peak sooner than in prior years.

Texas doesn’t appear to have peaked out just yet, analysts said.

Gulf coast refineries are still making the switch to summer-blend gasoline that will likely cause an increase at the pump, Tom Kloza, the chief analyst at Oil Price Information Services.

Houston prices could rise by as much as 25 cents due to the switch, Kloza said. Last year, drivers saw an 8- to 10-cent rise at the pump as refineries switched to the more expensive summer-blend gasoline.... [Read More]

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

Prices here near me dropped from 3.99 to 3.73 in 36 hours. I was amazed.

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

I doubt it will happen. The cost of wholesale gasoline is going to have to drop by 75 cents a gallon and unless we see oil drop at least $25 to $30 a barrel we will never get close to $3.00 gas.

Last I looked oil is priced at $104 for the May - June contracts. Throw in the summer driving season and I see us staying above $100 a barrel until at least Oct or November. And we all saw how much gasoline dropped in price last fall ? :rolleyes:

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

You could drop gas prices to $0.07/gallon. Venezuela accomplished it already. All you have to do is nationalize the fuel industry so that you don't have a dozen oil execs plunderimg whole countries.

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

To do that you have to subsidize it with exports. If the USA could do that gas would be much cheaper because the global supply would be much greater.

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

I think gasoline is $0.37 a gallon in Venezuela

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

If you want more SUVs that's a great idea. :eyebrow:

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

I would be 100% okay with banning SUVs.

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

Thats kind of harsh.. I think a secure 55mph speed governor and an occasional flogging of the driver would be plenty of punishment for abusing mother Gaia.. set the limit per SUV at 4500lbs

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

Didn't Brock Yates say in Cannonball Run that no state in the union has the death penalty for speeding except maybe Ohio. :p

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

I don't think the problem is SUV's, its bad drivers. They will drive poorly, no matter what they're in. Banning SUV's will do nothing but force these people into another class of vehicle. They'll be sent to crossovers and vans. Part of the problem is that big, heavy vehicles can still be easily written off on your federal taxes. Add to that the fact that SUV's are required to meet a lower standard of safety and efficiency, makes them cheaper to design & build, so they're higher profit than a passenger vehicle. Have you seen the new Explorer & Escape? IMHO they're not SUV's anymore. They're crossovers. Nothing more than tall station wagons with 4wd.

If you want to reduce the number of SUV's on the road start with removing the Gov't regulations that encourage the automakers to build them, and the Gov't regulations that encourage people to buy them. When I was car shopping last year, I talked to my accountant before shopping. I was shocked to find out that although there were small Gov't incentives to buy a hybrid, if I purchased a big Suburban or a Hummer, I could write off nearly 100% of the vehicle expense on my taxes.

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

more bad news for electrics, tech improving for squeezing oil out of old worn out wells...

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2012...-20120426.html

Alkaline surfactant polymer flooding shown to improve recovery in very mature oilfield by more than 300%

"The US Department of Energy (DOE) announced that the use of an alkaline surfactant polymer (ASP) flooding technique has successfully improved oil recovery at a 106-year old Illinois field by more than 300%. This method of extraction could help pull as many as 130 million additional barrels of oil from the depleted field, which is past peak production using traditional drilling."

over its history that field has produced 410 million barrels of oil

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

more electric doom:

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2012...-20120425.html

Delphi and partners advancing with high-efficiency, low-emission gasoline compression-ignition combustion

"In his talk at the High Efficiency IC Symposium, Sellnau said that a modeled 1.8L GDCI engine for vehicle simulations showed large regions with fuel consumption of less than 190 g/kWh: loads of 6-20 bar, and speeds of 1800-3500 rpm. Applied in a mid-size passenger car, such an engine could potentially—without optimization or with a start-stop system, although with variation of gear ratios and shift schedules—deliver 60% improvement in city driving fuel economy, and 40% on US06, for a combined fuel economy improvement of about 51%, Sellnau said."

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

Just more examples of how the easy stuff is gone. No longer can you drill 100 feet down and it comes shooting out of the ground.

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

It's so much easier if you can despise a single thing like SUV like Indigo. Ban SUVs and take over the oil industry by force. Why fight in Iraq when the battle front could be Texas and Alaska.

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

I guess that's why the Beverly Hillbillies ended up in foreclosure and their car with the perilous Granny Seat was reposessed years ago. No more shootin' at some food end expecting the ground to bubble up some crude. :(

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

its an amazing that ICE tech was primitive when oil was plentiful, and it advances just in time as oil gets harder to extract. Someone is looking out for the human race.

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

It's a type of evolutionary reaction.

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

Well, that's good, although it's actually improved the current rate on a depleted field rather than quadrupling overall recovery.

I wonder how much it costs to do.

PS 2010 global oil consumption was estimated at 86,952,470 barrels per day. So this'll help us keep us all going for a couple of days.

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

Good point on typical SUV drivers possibly being poor drivers...the vehicle choice could be to make them feel safer by being in a vehicle others will be afraid to be near. I recommend getting a copy of the book The High and the Mighty by Keith Bradsheir - goes into great depth how the SUV was marketed to appeal to power and virility ... it's why in the past I suggested requiring all SUVs be painted pink with effeminate styling like an episode of Top Gear to get people to avoid them.

The marketing of SUVs has at least as much psychological research as beer commercials and why a lot of people can't let go of them.

Those that don't know me for very long will not know the hate a number of SUV drivers had for me. Many of the charter members were at Green Hybrid (which became Gear Head hybrid - they lost their mission - a dead forum.) I'd make a morning work commute in Dallas putting up with a lot of inconsiderate SUV drivers, but actually had more problems with pickups....many of them landscape companies driven by white trash and undocumented workers not paying for the gas. I'd rant about it and a number of the SUV drivers would take offense, even after say it was the bad drivers speeding. They were also thin-skinned with the comment a hybrid label did not make them green if they were speeding solo in a huge vehicle. Anyway, "GearHead Hybird" is virtually dead after they ran off everybody serious about driving green....not much audience for posers that think a little hybrid label will compensate for bad driving.

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=6010



U.S. gasoline demand this summer is expected to be the lowest in 11 years, while the average summer fuel price is forecast to be at a record level. High prices at the pump—mostly a result of global crude oil prices—and the use of more efficient vehicles both encourage reduced gasoline consumption.

U.S. gasoline consumption is forecast to average almost 8.8 million barrels per day (bbl/d) this summer driving season, which runs from April through September, the lowest since 2001 and about 6.4% less than 2007's record summer gasoline demand of 9.4 million bbl/d (see chart above), according to EIA's April 10, 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Data and projections from STEO are subject to change with the next release of the STEO on May 8, 2012.

Also, higher vehicle fuel efficiency should contribute to lower gasoline demand this summer. Higher gasoline prices, which are expected to be up an average of 24 cents per gallon this summer compared to last year, according to the April 2012 STEO, are also expected to reduce some highway travel, which will reduce fuel use.

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

an interesting article from Bob Ray Sanders

http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/04...s-falling.html



"Last week I paid 10-cents-a-gallon less for gasoline than I did the week before, at the same service station. While $3.79 seemed a bargain, it did cause me to wonder.

This weekend, I noticed the price sign at the station showed regular gasoline dropped another 5 cents to $3.74 a gallon.

"What's going on?" I thought, as I recalled how one of my friends and former colleagues used to argue with me routinely about the true causes of the rise and fall of gas prices in this country.

Then Monday evening I pulled up to the pump at this national oil company station/convenience store. The advertised cost per gallon was a full 20 cents less than I had paid just two weeks before, $3.69.

That's when I really remembered my former Editorial Board colleague becoming frustrated every time I mentioned the American people were being suckered by "Big Oil" and "greedy, manipulating speculators" who were playing the oil market like Las Vegas high-rollers and we poor consumers were being bilked in the name of free enterprise.

"Supply and demand," my friend/adversary would say each time we debated oil prices.

I would insist there's no supply problem, and all demands are being met.

"Do you see any lines at the pump?" I would ask.

He would say something like, "You just don't get it."

And I admit, I don't get it. I'm not an economist. I know very little about the oil industry beyond its record quarterly profits reports. But, I also know that over the past few years speculators have been driving the price of oil while the market analysts, media observers and so-called financial experts come up with some reason why prices were rising."

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

Media and greed? H

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47295638

Oil in Free Fall as Economic Worries Spur Selling

"Oil prices were in free fall Friday as worries about a weakening global economy combine with seemingly ample supplies and less fear of a confrontation with Iran.

Traders also point to new margin requirements by the CFTC, announced Thursday. However, those requirements do not go into effect until August, and the bigger factor behind the selling is concerns about a global slowdown.

West Texas crude finsished down nearly 4 percent at $98.49 per barrel, after breaking key technical levels and the psychological $100 mark. WTI has now wiped out all of its gains for the year and is down fractionally for the year and down 6 percent on the week.

Brent crude, the international bench mark, was also tumbling, down 2.5 percent at $113.18 per barrel after breaking through its 200-day moving average of $113.60. It lost 5.6 percent for the week.

Traders also exited positions ahead of the weekend elections in Europe, which could bring a fractured government to Greece and a new Socialist president to France.

But the big driver is the concern that the U.S. economy is not strong enough to withstand a weak European economy and slower growth in China. The disappointing April jobs report Friday, showing just 115,000 nonfarm payrolls were added, was the latest catalyst for a second day of heavy selling.

“We had one positive thing (U.S. ISM manufacturing data) and about 10 negative things, and now it’s all starting to come to a head,” said trader Anthony Grisanti of GRZ Energy. “You can’t just ignore what is going on in the world.”

One positive effect of falling oil prices is that it will take pressure off gasoline and other refined products, making it more likely consumers have already seen the highest gasoline prices of the year. The national average is now $3.80, down from $3.92 a month ago and below last year’s average of $3.98, according to AAA.

Traders also said the recent quiet surrounding Iran has punctured some of the geopolitical risk built into oil prices. As rhetoric around Iran’s nuclear program and the sanctions against it created concerns that world oil supplies would be tightened, Saudi Arabia and other producers increased production.

“The physical market loosened up several weeks ago, thanks to increased Saudi production and seasonal refinery maintenance, but the futures market has been slow to respond. The jobs numbers out this morning appear to have catalyzed a change in market sentiment with concerns about demand weakness in the West outweighing fears of Iran-related disruptions,” said Trevor Houser, partner with the Rhodium Group.

Earlier this week, government data showed that crude oil inventories were at their highest level since September 1990. Stockpiles nationwide rose by 2.84 million barrels last week. Inventories at the key Cushing, Okla., hub hit a record high and gained 4.4 million barrels, or 11.5 percent, over the past six weeks.

International supply also seems to have relaxed. OPEC Secretary General Abdalla el-Bardi also stressed this week that the organization was actively pumping above its official target to try to bring prices down. “We are not happy with prices at this level because there will be destruction as far as demand is concerned,” he said, reiterating that $100 a barrel oil was a comfortable price."

Re: Gasoline prices could dip under $3 again
 

The other factor is that the Arab countries in the region replaced the Iran oil supply even if it is shut off due to a war. Any disruption of Iran's oil output due to an attack by Israel will have minimal effect of the worlds oil supply.

Three years ago these same people were talking $75 a barrel oil was their benchmark. I'm seeing some scared Arabs looking at long term decrease in the western countries future consumption of their oil. Too many new variables coming on line in the last two years that has them getting real nervous. If we continue to see increased efficiency across the board on top of the massive new finds in Natural Gas, the future of middle eastern oil prices may be in jeopardy.

They may see the demand in oil use by the Chinese increase but the Chinese don't play by the same rules as the western world does. Look at Iran, the E.U. stopped buying their oil but the Chinese didn't. At the moment the Chinese are buying it with around a 15-20% discount off of market prices.