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View Full Version : America @ $100/Barrel: How Long Will the Oil Last?


Chuck
03-31-2008, 06:45 AM
Of the 4000 active oil/gas fields in the world, just 120 provide 40% of our energy. (http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/earth/4254875.html)

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/oil_gas2.jpgPopular Mechanics - April, 2008

We don't know the future, but need to do all we can - something we clearly are not. -- Ed.

Expanding Supply
These days everyone is worried about oil. The primitive black goo has been linked to climate change, economic disruption and other problems, but make no mistake: We still need oil, and lots of it. Not only is American demand rising—this year it’s expected to top 21 million barrels per day—but ascendant economies in India and China have developed huge appetites for the stuff. The stark reality is that the supply is finite. "Peak oil" theorists argue that production is already maxed out, meaning imminent shortages and sharper price spikes; more optimistic experts believe that day is 20 to 30 years away. Both camps agree that the task ahead is twofold: Develop new supplies while learning to stretch existing reserves.

The Relentless Search
There has not been a major find on U.S. soil since Prudhoe Bay in 1968, which means most major exploration has moved to the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where drilling and production are difficult and expensive. Last year, a Chevron-led consortium announced the discovery of the Jack field, 270 miles off Louisiana. It may hold 15 billion barrels, which would more than double domestic reserves. "The technology that is being brought to bear is phenomenal," says energy writer Robert Bryce, author of Gusher of Lies. "What we are seeing today in offshore drilling is the terrestrial version of the space program." Bryce is among those pushing to open offshore leases along the East and West coasts currently under federal moratorium but estimated to hold as much as 19 billion barrels of oil and 86 trillion cu. ft. of natural gas… http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/earth/4254875.html

Earthling
03-31-2008, 12:30 PM
Our government has also managed to ruin the value of the US dollar, which is accentuating the rise in fuel costs.

Oil, gasoline, natural gas, and even coal are in limited supply and will do nothing but trend upwards in price. Since most oil is imported, the de-valuing of the US dollar will make that trend even worse, and is what is happening right now.

Harry

lamebums
03-31-2008, 05:22 PM
If the dollar kept pace with the euro since 2002 oil would be about $57 a barrel instead of 100. Nevertheless it's a sign of the times, that one of these days we'll need to get off oil. There will always be oil for our plastics and our machinery - the era of cheap oil however is coming to an end. I'll give it 30 years before we're facing serious shortages if we don't do something, when oil production truly peaks and can't even come close to matching demand.

Then we'll be up ****creek without a paddle.



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