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Carmaker to stick with plug-in through initial sales; admits mistake in early hybrid strategy. (http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080320/AUTO04/803200347/1148/rss25)

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/Volt_as_an_FCV.jpgDavid Shepardson and Eric Morath - The Detroit News - March 20, 2008

General Motors Corp. could some day sell more than 500,000 Chevrolet Volts annually worldwide, but the company is preparing to lose money "for years" on the range-extended electric vehicle, Vice Chairman Bob Lutz said Wednesday.

While speaking to a group of Volt fanatics at the New York International Auto Show, Lutz said it was a mistake that GM didn't beat Toyota Motor Corp. to market with hybrid vehicles even though the Detroit automaker had electric vehicle technology dating back to the 1960s.

He said GM won't make that error again, even if it means losing money on initial Volt sales.

"We won't make a dime on this car for years, and the board is OK with that," he said. GM was hesitant to go to market with hybrids a decade ago because he said the automaker was likely to lose $250 million a year selling such vehicles.

Lutz said being late to the market with hybrids has cost GM billions in sales because it lost its image of having superior technology.

GM's initial estimates of 60,000 to 100,000 annual Volt sales could grow five-fold, Lutz said, adding that the car is a "game changer" on par with the Ford Model T.

More than 100 Volt fans accepted GM's invitation to attend the New York show and meet executives.

Mark Haines traveled from Melbourne, Fla., to hear more about the Volt. An electrical engineer who built his own electric vehicle, he said he'll be among the first to buy a Volt.

"For me it's a national security issue and we finally have technology to end our dependence on foreign oil," he said. "I have to support that."

The Volt is not GM's only effort to increase the fuel economy of its vehicles...http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080320/AUTO04/803200347/1148/rss25

If they really are prepared to take a loss on the vehicle, they should price it in the low-mid $20K range to be strongly competitive with any and all similar tech. They should put out a high quality product with the right price and simply flood the market with it because of its merits. None of this "We have to make back our R&D efforts in a short time with $6K-$8k markups!!" junk -- sell enough and you'll make your costs back!

I still want one of these and I sincerely hope they come through, guns blazing with the quality flag proudly flying! :flag:

I'm really tired of the GM hyperbole, though. 150yrs to get back the price differential on a Prius??? :confused:

GM will build future versions of hybrids that are less expensive, Lutz said, "and without the premium, where today if you buy a Toyota Prius you have to live to 150 to get back the premium over a conventional car."

Luddite Lutz is paid to compete with Toyota, and he comes up with a Neanderthal comment like that?

Check your prices, Bob. Your Malibu's aren't much different in price than a Prius, so the premium for a Prius isnt much, and it is being paid back in 2 or 3 years. But the payback doesn't end, it keeps on delivering in fuel savings for as long as I own the Prius.

Harry

I was quite taken back by that same statement Earthling. Lutz just gets lower and lower on my respect-o-meter everytime I read one of his idiotic quotes in an article.

I really want to see the Volt take off as a good quality American car. It could pave the way for big changes that benefit our country a LOT.

I definitly agree with the statement about car manufacturers complaining about regulations.

The headline makes me chuckle. GM as a whole has been operating at a loss for a long time now. Why not take a loss on a specific model?

The headline makes me chuckle. GM as a whole has been operating at a loss for a long time now. Why not take a loss on a specific model?

exactly...they lose billions every year...whats another couple :woot:

Lutz, Putz. In French la lance d'amour. In Spanish, Papalo in a sombrabro.

Apologies to Dr Seuss.


Lets just be thankful that George W and Lutz can't have a baby!

Lutz said, "...today if you buy a Toyota Prius you have to live to 150 to get back the premium over a conventional car..."

What premium?

The Prius doesn't have a non hybrid to compare the "hybrid premium" to. I was originally drawn to the Prius by the hatchback and easy loading feature. I was replacing a Silverado and needed easy loading for our deliveries.

Now, it seems that I have caught some kind of hypermiling virus since getting the Prius. But that is another story (A long story at that).

Check your prices, Bob. Your Malibu's aren't much different in price than a Prius, so the premium for a Prius isnt much, and it is being paid back in 2 or 3 years. But the payback doesn't end, it keeps on delivering in fuel savings for as long as I own the Prius.I think I've figured out the disconnect. It might be one of those Prez Bush, Grocery scanner moments. Has anyone asked Lutz how much he thinks gas costs, or what rate wage is at? Being a billionaire, he may not know that most minimum wage workers spend at least 1 hours wage out of every work day just to pay for the gas to get to/from work. It certainly would explain a lot.

I still want one of these and I sincerely hope they come through, guns blazing with the quality flag proudly flying! :flag: Wish I could say the same, but I will never buy another car that doesn't have 4 doors. Sorry guys. I just don't understand why everything GM makes has to either look like a muscle car or a military assault vehicle. Besides, I'm not convinced that a Plug-in Volt is going to come anywhere remotely close to a plug-in prius. Last numbers I say put the Volt at 55 MPG if it was never plugged in (close cycle). Pretty wimpy for the next generation hybrid.

11011011

I would like Lutz to consider the resale value of a Prius compared to a Malibu.

Wish I could say the same, but I will never buy another car that doesn't have 4 doors. Sorry guys. I just don't understand why everything GM makes has to either look like a muscle car or a military assault vehicle. Besides, I'm not convinced that a Plug-in Volt is going to come anywhere remotely close to a plug-in prius. Last numbers I say put the Volt at 55 MPG if it was never plugged in (close cycle). Pretty wimpy for the next generation hybrid.

11011011

I may be mistaken but since the car we've seen isn't even close in appearance to what the production model will look like, I'm thinking there will at least be a 4 door variant. I could see a 5 door variant in the works as well -- the platform is plenty flexible enough for it and body tooling is not THAT hard when compared to the tech that goes under it. I also expect the volume use to be quite good -- electric motors are way the heck smaller by weight to power ratio than conventionally sized internal combustion engines and all their associated plumbing. A generator can be much smaller.

I don't know about the 55mpg call in what you are terming "closed cycle" but I do know that I could do most of my driving on nothing but battery power if they deliver the vehicle designed to go a solid 40mi with moderately aggressive driving and AC. I figure I should be able to pull around 20mi more out of such a vehicle with my current driving habits, and probably could just about get by with work commuting still completely on battery power even with moderately cold winter temperatures sapping range (call it a 1/3 to 1/2 reduction -- fair?).

If I'm correct about the above, I'd essentially have a highway capable EV with extra range for the few times a year I actually need it. Additionally, I figure a series hybrid offers easy upgrade options. Just yank the little generator and replace it with whatever you like -- more batteries even. The basic system is superbly simple -- and I like that because to me it spells durability and reliability. Nothing against Toyota's approach but it seems needlessly complex (to me at any rate!) for the eventual goal we are all headed toward -- very occasional and extremely limited use of liquid fuel.

I know that was wordy, but those are the reasons I'd like to have a Volt (in 4 or 5 door format, preferably :)). ;)

Um... The Volt does have 4 doors from what I've seen Dan. It still is quite muscle carish though. However, I did just read a post on ecomodder.com about how they dropped the Cd of the Volt about 30%... Lemme dig up the link... Here we are:

http://news.windingroad.com/concept-cars/general-motors-works-to-lower-the-chevrolet-volt%e2%80%99s-coefficient-of-drag/

Hi Daox:

___There is not even a final body style finalized on the VOLT so it is pointless to worry about its Cd even though we know the first iteration was probably in the .35 range.

___About taking a loss. GM doesn’t need to take a loss if they are willing to sell the vehicles. Think $250 - $300/kWh x 16 kWh for the pack from either LG or A123Systems and you are in the ball park. Small ICE, high power inverter and a strong MGSet do not make this all that expensive an undertaking for an OEM the size of GM. Design work is where they have to be careful but they have been throwing away this same $’s on the FCV’s for many years and the electric drive is going to come form one of those already on the road. Expecting it to rival the base Prius HEV on price would be crazy talk given it is a PHEV-40 and the Prius with a 40 mile AER PHEV conversion costs upwards of $35K +. $30K is the Cobalt with a ton of bells and whistles plus $10K for the electrified drivetrain. That $40K trial balloon GM launched a few weeks ago just about had the community ready to rip GM’s and Lutz’ head off so we know that is going nowhere fast.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

At least GM is the only one of the Big 3 making a plug in hybrid car. But the Big 3 should have started way back in 1991 when the US Governement gave them an incentive to develop a hybrid car. My 1992 college Sr Design project involved work on converting a Ford Escort to a hybrid.

Yeah, Lutz and GM are still big idiots, and I'd rather have a Prius or 55 mpg 09 1.3L Fit than a Volt.

Um... The Volt does have 4 doors from what I've seen Dan. It still is quite muscle carish though. However, I did just read a post on ecomodder.com about how they dropped the Cd of the Volt about 30%... Lemme dig up the link... Here we are:

http://news.windingroad.com/concept-cars/general-motors-works-to-lower-the-chevrolet-volt%e2%80%99s-coefficient-of-drag/

http://www.diseno-art.com/encyclopedia/concept_cars/chevrolet_volt.html

Well Color Me Corrected! One of the EARLY mock-ups I say was a 2-door and looked like they were going for a sportster.

As far as the "55 mpg", it's a rumor that has legs. Don't know how much credit it has, but I can't find a solid contradiction. Just googling volt 55mpg (http://www.google.com/search?q=volt+55mpg) yields a few hits.

http://web.camaross.com/forums/showpost.php?p=5192757&postcount=13

Basically the 55mpg question boils down to this... If you drive it from New York to San Francisco non-stop, how many times would you need to fill up? Doing the math on that puts it at about 55mpg purely in serial-hybrid mode. Definitely good, but I guess I would have expected a bit more from the next big hybrid tech.

2010 is rumored to have:
VW Hybrid (hopeful)
GM Volt (definate)
Prius III PHEV (speculative)

I'll get the 4 door that gets the best Wh/mi and mpg. But since I can wait till 2014 for my next car, Volt might not be top dog.

11011011

I'll get the 4 door that gets the best Wh/mi and mpg. But since I can wait till 2014 for my next car, Volt might not be top dog.

I hear you loud and clear!!

I wonder how long it will be economically feasible to continue running my Insight? I'll have to have something for the wife to drive in 2.3 years as well...

Hi Dan:

___Although we would think the 1.0L should be worth more than that for any of us, let me put this up for the members to think about …

08 Prius - 45 mpg highway
08 HCH-II - 45 mpg highway
06 Insight - 58 mpg highway

___All on the 08 specs. The Volt is probably going to weigh in the 3,100 – 3,300 # range with a 0 - 60 time possibly in the 10 second range vs. the Prius at < 3,000, HCH-II’s < 2,900 and the Insight at < 1,900 #’s. I would be very surprised of the 1.0 in that heavy of a vehicle with that kind of performance pulls 55 on the 08 EPA highway myself?

___Good Luck

___Wayne

And yet, I'm still wondering about the Aptera with it's 120 mile EV range and 300mpg hybrid engine. I'm tempted to have a friend in California place the order for me so I can get my hands on one. For 99% of my driving needs, the Aptera, or similar vehicle would do just fine.
In many ways, I'd rather support an entrepreneur with a vision instead of Goliath Motors. Risky, but potentially very rewarding.

GM will build future versions of hybrids that are less expensive, Lutz said, "and without the premium, where today if you buy a Toyota Prius you have to live to 150 to get back the premium over a conventional car."

Luddite Lutz is paid to compete with Toyota, and he comes up with a Neanderthal comment like that?

Cripes...150 years for a Prius....how long will my HiHy take? Get real GM!

Anybody want to go class-action on GM for their slander? :flag:

Anybody want to go class-action on GM for their slander? :flag:I think the CLASS of driver that cares about this country has already taken ACTION. Just look at their stock.

11011011

Yes, the Aptera is looking awesome, almost too good to believe. I don't really like the "futuristic" look, but with those numbers and that cost who the heck cares what it looks like! The only thing I'd prefer in the Aptera would be seating for 4, but if successful they may make one of those next with not as good numbers...

Hi Dan:

___Although we would think the 1.0L should be worth more than that for any of us, let me put this up for the members to think about …

08 Prius - 45 mpg highway
08 HCH-II - 45 mpg highway
06 Insight - 58 mpg highway

___All on the 08 specs. The Volt is probably going to weigh in the 3,100 – 3,300 # range with a 0 - 60 time possibly in the 10 second range vs. the Prius at < 3,000, HCH-II’s < 2,900 and the Insight at < 1,900 #’s. I would be very surprised of the 1.0 in that heavy of a vehicle with that kind of performance pulls 55 on the 08 EPA highway myself?

___Good Luck

___Wayne

Wayne, I've been thinking about this but I'm not sure how to make the comparison since presumably the "generator" in the Volt will be running at a constant RPM and load specifically chosen to maximize efficiency in electricity generation. Just as in the fuel cell vehicles, the battery pack then becomes the more flexible buffer to this constant output with the ability to vary output efficiently.

If someone has a way to calculate the boundaries of efficiency for that system, I'd be very interested in seeing how the numbers work out!

re: 55mpg in a 3300 lb vehicle

Maybe it is possible because of less losses in the serial hybrid configuration?

Still, it would be nice if they could lose 500 lbs or more from the Volt...
I can't believe the engine size reduction did not make up for a large chunk of
the HV battery weight. And that heft is there even with the use of advanced
materials such as plastics? Puzzling. What else is in the car? Gadgets galore?

cheers,
Bill

edit: I see Sean has been thinking along
similar lines (efficiency of serial hybrid)

Still, it would be nice if they could lose 500 lbs or more from the Volt...
I can't believe the engine size reduction did not make up for a large chunk of
the HV battery weight. And that heft is there even with the use of advanced
materials such as plastics? Puzzling. What else is in the car? Gadgets galore?

Obviously the air conditioner is a solid block of lead and the windshield wipers are made of pure Iridium.

If someone has a way to calculate the boundaries of efficiency for that system, I'd be very interested in seeing how the numbers work out!A bit OT, but:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnot_cycle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_Engine

I think you know the equations better than I do though. One big loss will be all the energy conversions in the cycle.


Chemical to Mechanical - Gas in ICE converted to rotational energy at differential
Mechanical to Electrical - Generator tapping differential to spin a magnet and herd electrons
Electrical to Chemical - Electrons nestled into the LiON matrix to wait.
Chemical to Electrical - LiON bonds broken to generate electricity.
Electrical to Mechanical - Electricity does XYZ and spins the electric motor.
Mechanical to Kentic - Motor spins the wheels which meet the road which move the car.


Now I don't know the efficiencies, but a rough guess goes like this 1) 40%, 2) 95%, 3) 95%, 4) 95%, 5) 95%, 6) 80%. This results in about a thermal efficiency of something like 25% (actually pretty good compared to a variable RPM ICE). You also get some of the Kenetic energy in step 6 back in regen breaking. If they got clever (which I'm sure they are) they could jump from step 2 to 5 with some percentage of their output in the right conditions.

But again, these numbers are all made up... it's just an illustration of the compound effect of energy conversions.

11011011

Back in 1980, GM had 50% of the US automotive market. Today it's below 25%. They sold off a lot of assets recently to continue operations...if they don't regain market share, the next time their situation could look more like Chrysler right now. :eek:

For some reason, the remark that it takes 150 years to break even on the Prius seems like it was sourced from Art Spinella...heck, I'm thinking he did that study on CFLs.

Hi Sean:

___I would not bet on the 1.0L being a steady state ICE. Unless it will be running at < 2,000 RPM. The quickest way to ruin the feel of anything is to have something buzzing away at 2,500 RPM while we are stopped at a light, sign, parade, cow, lemming or RR crossing? This thing is going to have to rev up and down while not in a std. highway mode and since it is all about fuel consumption for a given power output to the bus, we will probably see a limited RPM range but it will shut down at a stop. I doubt however we will see all the fancy valve tricks to help hold efficiency throughout an entire RPM band like we see in a std. modern day ICE.

___55 is probably a tad high given the suspected weight and such.

___Bill, I am throwing around the 3,200 + # number only because the current Cobalt is a 3,200 # vehicle. I am sure there will be some weight savings in the design but it does carry a complete ICE albeit a small one and two very substantial MGSets + 16kWh of Li-Ion’s and inverter/converter.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

I have no idea who owns the following site, but it has a lot
of Chevy Volt info/speculations:

http://www.chevy-volt.net/chevrolet-volt-specs.htm
http://www.chevy-volt.net/chevrolet-volt-weight-details.htm
etc.

Posted therein: 3500 lbs!

I have not looked closely, just skimmed it.

It does talk about a nominal rpm range for ICE operation,
plus a max rpm.

I'm guessing there is some likelihood that the ICE would be
normally run at an efficient range with constant load. The
max rpm may come into play when pedal-to-the-metal or top
speed is requested and the battery cannot supply sufficient
current. It would make sense (to me) that there would be a
path from generator to battery as well as a bypass path,
with the possibility to have both paths active. Anyway,
that's how I would design it. :-) And if GM were smart, the
car would switch from charge depleting mode to charge
sustaining mode, with hints from the driver as to the
intended driving distance, thereby saving the batteries from
excessive cycling.

cheers,
Bill

3200 lbs seems completely plausible to me.The Prius has a ~100 lb battery?The Volt will have a battery with 10X the storage,so if will have plenty of battery weight.It won't have 1000 lbs of battery, but it will sure as heck have 500 lbs of battery-maybe 700 lbs?
.
If the Volt weights just 3200 lbs; I would consider that pretty good.

The 150 years old-typical hyperbole meant for folks who literally "don't do the math." Many folks literally won't do the numbers and won't see what BS that is,so it is effective hyperbole(or just an outright lie).

If GM can get it to buyers for $30000-OTD after any tax credit(which might mean the actual selling price is $32000+$2000 TTL -$4000 TC) it will be a big seller.$30000 isn't that much more than the Prius will sell for in 2010. The yen is appreciating,and the Prius are all made in Japan,so they are going up in price.

Despite his BS comments,I'm happy that Lutz seems to be betting the farm on the Volt.We in the USA have lots of coal,and the Volt will essentially be coal powered.Coal is cheap,and we don't have to buy it from countries that would love to use our dollars to buy nukes to slip into our harbors.

It will be nice to eventually have other sources of electricity-wind,solar,tidal, more nuclear-but we have coal ,a lotta' coal.We have an energy problem now.Electric cars are the answer now.The Volt will scale up, no problem.It is just a diesel electric locomotive with a battery.Granted,the battery is THE critical element, but I'm optimistic about it.

Lutz is frequently full of bull , but he is married to the Volt,so I'm happy.Warts and all, he might save GM .
Charlie

Why would a 76-yr-old exec still be at GM?

I figure it's so he has a nice looking epitaph...if the Volt is a hit he can die happy and the rest of us will live better.

Lutz loves cars. Mainly big, fast, high HP ones... That's why he still works at GM.

It will be nice if they can make it.

Unlike an ICE, a lightly loaded electric motor is more efficient. Resistive losses go up with the square of current, and torque goes up proportional to current. Quick 0-60 time potential and good fuel economy can go together on an EV. As always, or perhaps even more so with an EV, using that available power will kill the FE.

Given the same battery technology, the larger battery is more efficient, too, due to lower resistance.

I'll agree I wouldn't like the noise of an engine running at rated power at a stoplight, but if gas is $5/gal when the Volt comes out, I think demand would still be far higher than the # of cars GM will build. Maybe that is why GM thinks they need a 10 speaker sound system!