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Late 2010, Check. PHEV-40, Check. $40,000 ... Whoops :( (http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080131/BIZ/801310505/1148/AUTO01)

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/Chevrolet_VOLT.jpgDavid Shepardson - Detroit News - Jan 31, 2008

If adding a $5,000 16 kWh Li-Ion pack and a $1,000 Electric motor to a compact Chevrolet Volt brings the price anywhere near $40,000, GM can build all they want and they will sit on the lots :( -- Ed.

WASHINGTON -- General Motors Corp. plans to build "tens of thousands" Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid electric cars by 2011, a senior executive said today.

"We're not doing the Volt to sell 500 or 1,000 (vehicles)," Jonathan Lauckner, GM's vice president for global program management, said today at forum sponsored by the Center for American Progress here. "We're talking about tens of thousands and more than that within the year."

Lauckner reiterated GM plans to start production of the concept electric vehicle by the end of 2010.

The Volt will be able to meet the commuting needs of 78 percent of drivers, who travel less than 40 miles a day, he said, adding that. GM plans to sell the car "around the world."

A version of an energy bill passed by the House would have given consumers a $3,000 tax break to buy a plug-in hybrid. Lauckner said federal tax incentives would be "very helpful." … http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080131/BIZ/801310505/1148/AUTO01

"He said, 'Maybe it's closer to 40 (thousand) than 30," Lauckner said an interview after the forum. "We're still fairly early in the program. We haven't sourced the battery yet."

And the Prius was criticized for it's "hybrid premium." What's the payback period on a $40K Volt, Luddite Lutz?

Harry

WHA-A-A-AT?!? $40K?!?!? They should be selling it at no more than about $27K if I don't miss my guess -- and that would be raking in ridiculous profits when considering the cost of materials!

If GM puts a price tag like that on the car, they can't seriously think they are going to sell anywhere near "tens of thousands" of these things in any kind of reasonable time frame. I don't really want a plug-in Prius. It is an overly complicated solution to a very basic problem -- on that is solved elegantly and robustly by the series hybrid platform the Volt is supposed to be. :(

I can't believe I just read this. :ccry:

$40k is a bit pricy.. I wonder if they will lease them out? Hmm, brings back memories of GM and electric cars... Did someone say EV-1?

Hi All:

___I know GM is shooting for $250 to $300/kWh so there is $4 - $5K for the 16kWh pack. A full capacity electric motor including the Busses and controllers cannot cost over $1K OEM either. Inverter and smart charger? Let us give GM the benefit of the doubt with a ton of leeway and say another $1K. That comes out to be a maximum of $7K let alone the loss of a 4 to 6 speed transmission for the much smaller 1.0L ICE. Cobalt’s can be had for under $13K. Add all the bell’s and whistles and you have a $22K PHEV with some premium for R&D and startup costs. Where the hell is this $40K price tag non-sense coming from? Does GM want to give away their market to Toyota with its $1,000 addition to the Prius-II as a PHEV-6 solution that works today and a PHEV-10 solution tomorrow for the same :angry:

___Believe it or not, I smell a trial balloon here :rolleyes:

___Good Luck

___Wayne

Thanks for more numbers, Wayne. That helps validate my gut feeling that $27K is about what it should be the top end limit on price. The components don't justify such a high cost! Electric cars are dang simple for crying out loud!!

Hrumph. :angry:

At 40K, why don't the make it a Cadilliac Electra instead of a Chevy Volt?

I wouldn't take too much stock in early pricing estimates.

If you have everyone thinking $40K and then it gets released at 35K, people will like that much more than having their minds set on a 30K vehicle that ends up being priced at 35K.

It isn't worth $35K either. I was ready to swallow $30K because it would (as of this forecast anyway) be the only thing on the road with its capabilities. That is over twice what I have ever paid for a car... Anything over that and the already extremely difficult to justify price is now just plain ridiculous.

I'm sorry -- this is really frustrating to me. I want to see them succeed and the Volt has the platform I've been waiting for... but this looks too much like more down the tubes work. :(

I hate to say it, but I think GM is trying to kill off the Hybrid technology. The hybrid trucks are only available on the top end Silverado model, then it’s an 8k dollar price increase over that for a 3mpg gain.

How many people buy the top end truck to begin with? How many of that number are going to spring another 8k dollars for 3mpg? I’m guessing most of the trucks will languish in the dealer lots, at which point GM can call the “Hybrid thing” a passing phase and claim their customers weren’t really interested in the technology in the first place. It would be an easy out to quit building Hybrids.

Now GM is going to price the Volt at 40k dollars? Unless GM is hoping/planning inflation pushes all vehicle prices into the stratosphere, I think they’re missing the target audience by a wide margin. Kill off the electric car again, this time with price?

My Prius was just over 20k after haggling, this car is going to be 100% more than that, with GM’s build quality issues? I’m pulling for the American car companies, even though many of their vehicles don’t qualify as domestic anymore, but they’re going to have to change their game plan more than this to win me over. :mad:

Why does GM constantly make me feel like a Buffalo Bills fan in the early 90s?

A full capacity electric motor including the Busses and controllers cannot cost over $1K OEM either. Inverter and smart charger? Let us give GM the benefit of the doubt with a ton of leeway and say another $1K.Not sure where you're getting those numbers, Wayne. If you look at the prices of AC drive systems on Metric Mind (http://www.metricmind.com/)'s Current Price List (http://www.metricmind.com/prices.htm) you'll see the cheapest AC motor is over $5,000 retail. The highest price is over $16,000, and the prices for Siemens hardware aren't even listed. Power inverters listed for $6,000 to $24,000. This does not include busses and wiring. "Controller" and "inverter" are synonymous in AC drive systems. Chargers $2,700 and up. Even if you look at low power Solectria hardware here (http://www.electroauto.com/catalog/price-pts.shtml) the numbers are much higher than you suggest. Granted, this is retail, but it also isn't custom developed like much of the hardware GM is likely to use will be.

Why does GM constantly make me feel like a Buffalo Bills fan in the early 90s?...or Toyota seem like the New England Patriots?

Hi Fenrir:

___You are not looking OEM. The 16 kWh pack at $4 - $5K is exactly the target price GM expects to pay. The rest come about from Toyota’s wizardry with the Prius-II. The TCH is almost $2,000 retail to the penny over and above the XLE similarly equipped. That includes the (2) MGSets, the NiMH pack, the monster garage inverter and SW programming. $2,000 upcharge OEM including the pack!!! Toyota is shooting for $1,500 by the end of this year all-in. Honda is shooting for less than $1,500 all-in for IMA in the new Global Hybrid. Your numbers are way out there vs. the OEM purchases I have been privy too.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

I'm working on a set of slides for a talk at our local
library next week, and am finding myself wanting to raise
the usual questions for people to think about:
_ will the Volt really make it?
_ why did they bother with a hybrid Escalade?
_ where the heck is the Estima in this country, huh?
I see plenty of BS going on across all sectors of the
industry, but Toyota seems to still be coming up as "least evil"
with a few notable gaps here and there.
.
_H*

GM, RIP if Lutz is anywhere near right. $40k puts it out of the hands of most Americans. Toyota and Honda will have a field day if Lutz reality comes to pass.

Hey, guys, I have this great idea! We don't really want to sell a flagship efficient car because the profit margins are way thinner than our guzzlers. So get this: we can design one, build it, and offer it to the public for $10k more than it's actually worth. That way we get our green cred, then we get to tell everybody how expensive these cars are and that it's not worth it. So we can go back to selling trucks again like always! It's so brilliant I deserve another bonus!

Brick, I think you're bang on.

Wayne, HSD and E Flex are quite different animals. You know that. You seem to be saying that because the Camry Hybrid is $2,000 more than the standard Camry, GM should be able to build an all-electric drivetrain for $2,000 (excluding batteries). How many Prii did Toyota have to sell before it became profitable? The TCH shares lots of parts with the standard Camry and the Prius, whereas the Volt will probably be mostly unique except for the chassis. Even a low voltage DC conversion kit for a Metro or S-10 or whatever will set you back $4,000 to $9,000 not including batteries, and AC systems are much more expensive. True, that's retail, not OEM. But just how much of a discount do you think OEMs get? You're not gonna see a $7,000 all electric AC drivetrain with lithium ion battery providing a 40 mi range and performance Americans expect at "tens of thousands" of units sold.

Do I think the Volt will be worth $40,000? No. But you're not gonna buy it for $7,000 over the cost of a Cobalt.

Hi Fenrir:

___I am not saying it will be a $7,000 price increase over the Cobalt but I am hoping to see a $10,000 price increase over the cost of the Cobalt, not $27,000!

___As for costs, I am speaking of the actual $’s Toyota and GM pay for the HW we love to discuss. The packs are dirt cheap to them at the production stage and outrageous for us as an end consumer. A Cobalt when priced out in parts to build including labor is probably a lot closer to $8 - $9K than the $13K my parents purchased a brand new one equipped with the safety package for my aunt just 2 months ago. The Prius' NiMH costs us ~ $4K not including the install. OEM they are ~ $1,000. This came from Toyota officials themselves. Same for the Li-Ion's. All this talk about $10 - $20K upgrades for a Prius-II PHEV from the after market guys are bunk. The A123Sytems packs DeWalt uses for their portable hand tools when racked and stacked in a prismatic form factor are dirt cheap vs. any of the conversion prices we are exposed to once a month or so.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

Do you have documentation of OEM battery costs you can share? The cost of NiMH packs currently used in hybrids isn't relevant because they don't have anywhere near enough capacity for a 40 mile all electric range, and the Volt will use Li-Ion not NiMH. Besides, I was only contesting your motor and controller/inverter cost estimates.

Hi Fenrir:

___Do a search on the cost of consumer based Li-Ion cel’s (cobalt unfortunately) and then ask your nearest high level Volt project manager if that is what the number they are shooting for. If he says you are very close to our projected target’s, you will know what the Li-Ion prices for the large packs will cost.

___Can you remove your hidden mode as you show up with a bright red dot vs. the cool green like everyone else to the mods and admins ;)

___Good Luck

___Wayne

Sounds a bit high too me from a budget constraint... Perhaps they'll offer a $10,000 rebate when they don't sell like the trucks.

The Volt is heavily flawed because Lithium Batteries can only cycle soo much then you have to replace them [according to my laptop batteries and Light & Motion Ultra HID bike light]. So it'll be very expensive replacing Volt Batteries.

And some places have cheap gas but very expensive electricity - Houston, Texas is like this. Chicago has cheap electricity but expensive gas.

I don't think the metric mind website is going to settle any pricing disputes, but it is a very worthwhile site to visit, so I will use this as an excuse to link it:

http://www.metricmind.com/index1.htm

DAS

Hi 99HXCivic:

___Hybrid Car Batteries are not anything like the cheap Li-Ion (Co based) laptop or cel phone or batteries you are currently using in terms of cap, C rates and longevity in terms of either cycles or age.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

Will the Volt batteries be an A123 style? Fast discharge and charge? Or will they be more similar to a Li-Poly battery with a slow charge and high discharge C ratings?

Hi Rweatherford:

___A PHEV pack is a hybrid of sorts itself. The basic criteria for any hybrid car battery is 150K miles w/ > 90% Cap and lasting for 10 + years no matter the environment. Since the Volt Series PHEV must do all the work to accelerate to 60 in ~ 8.5 seconds, the massively parallel pack has to supply the high C-Rates to do exactly that but no more. On the charging side, GM could make it a fast charger as A123Systems Li-Ion’s are certainly capable of that but with an overnight plug-in spec, I think they will keep the in rush low for battery longevity to go well beyond 10 years.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

What's the payback period on a $40K Volt, Luddite Lutz?

The first mile you drive it off the lot instead of a $40k SUV.

If the Volt can get 4 miles per kWh ...

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table5_6_a.html

the average cost for US kWh seems to be about $0.1094

0.1094 / 4 = ~$0.02735 per mile

When Gasoline is $3.50 per gallon

3.50 / 0.02735 = ~128 MPG to break even during EV operation

Another thing you don't seem to be considering, Wayne, is the battery management system. For a "massively parallel" pack of lithium ion cells, the BMS could easily exceed the cost of the cells themselves. The BMS is where Tesla spent most of their R&D budget.

Hi Fenrir:

___What you are missing is Tesla in their haste are using off-the-shelf Li-Ion based on Cobalt chemistry and because of doing were forced to sheath the stacks in a stainless jacket. I can bet Eberhard was removed for insisting on keeping that pack design instead of purchasing from A123Syste’s an appropriate sized and protected pack. Last I heard Tesla was looking for exactly that. Nobody in their right mind would consider that other then Tesla and AFS/Trinity. Controlling the NiMH and Nona-phosphate Li-Ion cel stacks and pack is done in every hybrid and PHEV conversion I know of today. Take a look to the current Prius-I, II, TCH, HiHy, Lexus’, FEH and the 2-Mode’s. Better yet, look at the RAV4 EV. There is a lot more work protecting a std. hybrids small pack then you may believe because there is no massively parallel bank to rely on for the high C-Rate launch when they do get touched! Very little code was changed for the Prius-II OEM/PHEV-6 if that is where you were headed?

___Better yet, here you go: Toyota’s 08 Camry XLE vs. 08 TCH - Cost and features analysis. (http://www.cleanmpg.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6665)

___On top of the std. $2,000 hybrid premium, 15 days worth of code work, an extra $1,000 NiMH with charger port and bingo, OEM TCH PHEV-6 just like the Prius PHEV-6. When Toyota receives a Li-Ion of the same cap and weight of the current dual NiMH packs in the test mules, a PHEV-12 is available and nothing needs to be changed other then more code that is already written but needs to be tweaked for the new pack size, cap and chemistry.

___Good Luck

___Wayne