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Higher production would let GM get volume discounts from auto-parts suppliers and put the $30,000 goal within reach. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=atR4ArJR__OI&refer=us)

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/548/Chevrolet_Volt_-_Front_Page.jpgJeff Green - Bloomberg - Aug. 22, 2007

Chevrolet Volt could sell for under $30,000.

General Motors Corp. may build as many as 60,000 of its Volt electric cars for their inaugural year on the market, four times the sales of Toyota Motor Corp.'s hybrid Prius in its U.S. debut, people with knowledge of GM's plans said.

Production at that level may allow GM to sell the plug-in Volt for less than $30,000, said the people, who didn't want to be identified because the plans are confidential. The discussions show the Detroit automaker, racked by losses and U.S. sales declines, believes an affordable electric car will help spur a revival, the people said. Toyota's Prius can be bought for $22,175.

``If they were able to get 30,000 to 60,000 on the road in a year, it would be a huge leap in technology,'' said Brett Smith, an alternative-fuel analyst at the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan. ``It will be difficult, though, because there are so many barriers to making this happen.''

A high-volume debut for the Volt, designed to go 40 miles without recharging, would lend credence to GM Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner's strategy of using technological advances to gain ground on Toyota. The Japanese company has a decade-long lead with its Prius, a gasoline-electric car that is the world's best-selling hybrid … http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=atR4ArJR__OI&refer=us

Hm. A few things bother me about this.

60,000 in the first year seems pretty high... unless they are figuring in sales across the globe?

Second, the author's source failed to take into account all the other running gear that can be taken out when you go to the flex system -- so 400lbs of battery does NOT mean "normal car" weight PLUS battery weight for Volt curb weight. :rolleyes:

Finally, what's with the "end of 2010?" Weren't previous statements "by 2010?" A lot can happen in 3 years. My car will have about 160K miles on it by then. Toyota will hopefully have been selling PHEVs for at least 1.5 years. Honda will be on to the next hybrid platform by then. Clean diesels will be flooding the market. This smells like more delay and pie in the sky from GM, frankly.

I remain skeptical... but hopeful. :confused:

As far as I'm concerned the Volt is just a gimmick, plain and simple. It wouldn't be as annoying if they were actually releasing little things that show they've actually applied this technology to other cars that they're developing, but they haven't shown anything. A123 didn't even get to test drive it so who knows if it's even a real car or not.

Then there's this Bloomberg article that says there's no way they can produce that many traction batteries in time....
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atR4ArJR__OI

In the past, I've said I hope this is a hit, but GM's history with projects like this is not encouraging.

Hi All:

___The reporter was a bit naïve wrt to the subject matter I believe but at least he heard from someone about production numbers. I have spoken with A123 people and they can ramp up production to practically whatever within 6 months. They are already producing HEV capable Cel’s to the tune of millions of units even today but those cel’s are heading into the power tool market. The new Prismatic/flat cel config should not be a problem for A123 but it is in the final product we do have to wonder about?

___This is the cool part. The Cobalt is a $10 - $12K vehicle. Even less OEM. The Volt will be built on the Cobalt platform. I am all but positive the pack for the PHEV-40 based Volt will not cost over $7K. Toyota procures the OEM 1.3 kWh Panasonic NiMH’s for around $800 and the Volt will be using an ~ 16kWh (a touch over 10X’s the size) pack with a useable Soc of probably 50 - 60%. Add $2K of electronics (Toyota’s entire HSD including the NiMH pack costs less then $2K) and you have a profitable $25K vehicle.

___My worst fears are they will be using the Cobalt platform to save $’s and anyone that has driven a Cobalt after 20K miles knows all to well you don’t want someone to have purchased that thing for $25 + K and have it turn into a rattle trap.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

That's quite encouraging info, Wayne! How likely do you think it is that they would be able to sell a good 30-60K of these in a single year? You've got a better feel for the pulse of the car buying public than I do... and a heck of a lot better set of contacts!

They ought to be putting this thing out at the end of 2009. Not a year later!! (Yeah, that's partly my selfish desire talking. ;))

Hi Sean:

___I do not see A123Systems having problems meeting the demand w/ a 2.5 year lead time nor the longevity of their packs to cause concern. GM has had similar packs in their vehicles (7kWh Li-Ion in the drivable Saturn Vue 2-Mode) well before the “Volt” prototype was unveiled in Detroit. From the sounds of the drum beats; everybody within GM is absolutely impressed with the performance so far!

___About 2009 … Podstawa is the guy heading up the Volt’s design, testing and initial manufacture but is basically doing this from scratch. He told us in a roundabout way they have some of the original EV-1 folks on it although considering the time frame, I am sure most are gone or have retired. That is my own speculation of course. Either way, bringing a vehicle from prototype concept without a real running engine, MGSet or pack to a fully laydened, streetable car with all the bells and whistles and an extremely advanced powertrain in 3 years is a huge undertaking! I am sure there will be setbacks but the guys we spoke to appear to be on a war footing and I for one believe they can do it! I am an optimist and will be rooting for GM in a big way. Why? Because I believe this is their last stand against the forces that are in front of them … and all of us.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

:ccry: If they pull it off, big oil is going to hate them. :ccry:

Wayne, that squares with my take on A123Systems' ability to produce. I too sincerely hope that GM can come through this time -- I would be very happy to drive a quality American vehicle! I just wonder what exactly the market for it will be... putting these things on lots across the country is a bit different than actually selling them.

If I've not already bought something else and it is good quality, I'd definitely be serious about considering the purchase of a Volt a few months after introduction -- just enough time to see reviews and user reports.

Go GM! :flag:

It's not too late for GM to offer PHEV's for the fleets of city, county, state and federal organizations. Back during the time of "Who Killed the Electric Car?", GM might have made that a counter proposal and profited handsomly.

As with any new car, I'd wait until it's been on the road a year. Actually 2 years in the case of GM. Wayne's comments re: rattle-trap Cobalts definitely resonate with me.

Don't get me wrong -- I'm thrilled if GM is really serious about this. But if they really do achieve these production volumes in the first year, serious quality problems are almost a given.

I think the EV1 would be cool today! (They could get their plans out of moth balls and reintroduce it. Though, as a natural bourne cynic :-) I'm thinking they are planning the Volt crushers as we speak.

--des

It's not too late for GM to offer PHEV's for the fleets of city, county, state and federal organizations. Back during the time of "Who Killed the Electric Car?", GM might have made that a counter proposal and profited handsomly.

As with any new car, I'd wait until it's been on the road a year. Actually 2 years in the case of GM. Wayne's comments re: rattle-trap Cobalts definitely resonate with me.

Don't get me wrong -- I'm thrilled if GM is really serious about this. But if they really do achieve these production volumes in the first year, serious quality problems are almost a given.
I, for one, will be a willing guinea pig for the first one I can get my hands on (assuming Toyota doesn't beat them to it). I expect some issues, I also expect GM to handle them decently. I want to be there to demonstrate that this is a product that people want and will buy and make sure they have no excuses for calling in the crushers again.

Hi Evan:

___God bless you and I look forward to the review in the not to distant future :D :D :D

___Good Luck

___Wayne

Thanks Wayne, I have the happy convenience of having enough expendable income to be able to take chances like that and, indeed, feel a bit compelled to do so. I had one of the first couple hundred 2G Prius to come out, have had the "opportunity" to experience each and every TSB/Recall that's occured....but I'm totally OK with that. I expected it, to some degree. I have realistic expectations of what a novel vehicle like the Volt or Prius should be and what it can't be. But for the vehicle line to be a success someone's gotta be willing to take the chances, suffer the imperfections, and still show that the concept and vehicle are sound.

Again, I'm NOT 100% convinced that the Volt will be all they say it will be, I'm NOT convinced it'll come out when they say it will. And I'm not even 50% confident they'll do it before or much before Toyota does something similar. But if they do I'll be pounding down the doors at the local Chevy place (no idea where that is, but I'll find it), slipping $20s in salesmen's pockets and doing what I need to do to get one of those babies!

Japan had a motive for coming out with hybrids-- they were scared to death that Detroit would beat them to it when there was governmental pressure for hybrid development. I don't see any pressure coming from anywhere, including the public for a Volt (or a Prius plug in).
It could change-- but not in the next year or two.


--des