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View Full Version : Are hybrid sales running out of gas?


xcel
04-15-2006, 01:19 PM
Smallest models are still hot, but some larger ones languish on the lot. (http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060414/AUTO01/604140364/1148)

Brett Clanton - The Detroit News - April 14, 2006

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/Lexus_LS600H_Hybrid_Sales.jpg
Bob Carter, Lexus division group vice president and general manager,
presents the marque's hybrid, the LS 600h, at the New York Auto Show.

NEW YORK - Hot or not? When it comes to fuel-saving hybrid vehicles, you can argue either side.

But a top Honda official on Thursday gave naysayers a little more reason to doubt that hybrids are part of the long-term solution to kicking America's gas habit.

Honda may cut production of its Accord Hybrid after seeing weaker-than-expected sales in its first four months on the market, said Dick Colliver, executive vice president of Honda Motor Co.'s U.S. sales arm.

"We've had to reevaluate our position," said Colliver. "It's having a hard time in the market."

Other automakers such as Ford Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. also are seeing sales stall for some of their hybrid models -- a trend that has spurred questions about the long-term acceptance of vehicles powered by both gas engines and electric batteries.

"It's definitely a warning signal," said Guido Vildoso, industry analyst with Global Insight in Lexington, Mass.

But with vehicles such as the Toyota Prius continuing to flourish, most manufacturers remain convinced there is a larger market for hybrid vehicles, even if they prove to be one of several alternatives to traditional gasoline-powered engines.

It's just of matter of figuring out where the sweet spot of the hybrid market is, they say.

Analyst sees market growing
In a new Harris Interactive poll, one quarter of prospective car buyers would consider a hybrid, and other polls put the figure even higher. Hybrids now account for 1 percent of all light vehicle sales, but J.D. Power and Associates sees the figure climbing to 4 percent by 2012.

In the next couple of years, a raft of automakers will take their best stab at cracking the code by introducing hybrid vehicles to suit every price range and taste.

Later this year, General Motors Corp. will fish for bargain-hunting greenies with a hybrid version of its Saturn VUE sport utility that starts under $23,000.

Ford has pledged to offer hybrid versions of half of its models by the end of decade.

At the other end of the spectrum, Toyota's Lexus brand will test the waters with a have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too hybrid that offers the performance of a rocket-like 12-cylinder engine with the fuel economy of a V8.

Lexus introduced the 2008 LS 600h L sedan on Wednesday at the New York International Auto Show. After the presentation, company officials defended the luxury hybrid, which will get a combined 22 miles per gallon, in the face of criticism that it is an irresponsible use of technology intended to conserve fuel, not boost horsepower.

"In the luxury segment, if we just focused on fuel economy, that wouldn't be enough," said Bob Carter, Lexus division group vice president and general manager.

Customers: Mixed feelings
Hybrid vehicles, which combine gas and electric engines to achieve better gas mileage, burst onto the scene six years ago. They were heralded as a way to curb America's appetite for foreign oil and to reduce smog-forming emissions. Along the way, they earned the blessing of eco-friendly Hollywood stars and rode a wave of hype that tended to gloss over their shortcomings - and that cast Detroit automakers as laggards for not jumping on board sooner.

But some consumers have complained that the money they save in gas from driving a hybrid is not enough to offset the premium they paid when buying a hybrid. Or that they don't get the fuel economy numbers that were advertised.

Such complaints have spurred some automakers, even those with hybrids on the way, to temper their expectations about the vehicles and their place in the U.S. auto market.

"Even though hybrids are a solution, they're not the solution," Carlos Ghosn, chairman and CEO of Nissan Motor Co., said in a speech Wednesday in New York.

He later reminded reporters that he has warned hybrids could have limited appeal.

"At least admit I was the only guy saying, 'Watch out, the consumer decides, " Ghosn said. "I have some kind of satisfaction of don't be excited about it,' being a little bit right on this one."

He said he sees promise in alternative fuels, including corn-based ethanol, diesels and hydrogen. "I'm not a one-solution guy."

Toyota plans more hybrids
But Toyota, which has aggressive plans to offer hybrids across its entire lineup, disputes the idea that hybrids are a temporary or "bridge" solution to something better.

"That's some of my competitors' spin," said David Hermance, an executive engineer at Toyota who oversees hybrid programs.

Honda officials also say they do not see the bloom fading from the hybrid market, despite the possibility that it may pare output of its Accord Hybrid. They point to the success of its gas-electric Civic sedan.

But they say the lesson of the Accord - pitched as a high-performance flagship with a V6 that boasts better horsepower than its top-of-the-line Accord - is that hybrid buyers are more interested in fuel economy than vroom.

David Cole, head of the Center for Automove Studies, said the hybrid market is showing some softness while entering a new phase.

As models are added and the number of hybrids on the market grows beyond demand from so-called "early adopters" and environmentalists, more mainstream consumers are having a tough time justifying the increased cost, despite rising fuel prices.

Carmakers, Cole said, may need to target reluctant consumers with discounts and low financing.

Buyers may also be passing on hybrids like the Accord and Ford Escape - which last week began offering zero-percent financing for five years to stoke tepid sales - because they look too much like their mainstream counterparts.

"What hybrid owners want is to stand out," said Jeff Schuster, executive director of J.D. Power Automotive Forecasting.

That may help explain the success of the Toyota Prius, a vehicle whose unique design announces it is a green machine, and why manufacturers have started adding design cues to differentiate their hybrids from their gas-powered counterparts.

Honda's Colliver did not say when a decision would be made whether to cut Accord Hybrid production. But any reduction is likely to have little impact, he said, since the hybrid model represents such a small portion of Accord's 400,000-plus annual U.S. sales.

He also did not rule out ending production soon of the Honda Insight, the first hybrid introduced to the U.S. market in 1999. "Anything's possible," he said.

The quirky two-seater, which gets 70 miles per gallon and is made of aluminum, embodied the hybrid movement at its outset. It boasted mind-blowing fuel economy in a package only a geek could love.

But today, it's getting harder to tell hybrids from other cars on the road. Is that a good development? It depends on whom you ask.

Chuck
04-15-2006, 05:30 PM
Need to file more articles - one on the Prius stated that it was not just that it was a hybrid that made it a success - Toyota priced it competively and bit the bullet on short-term profits. The Civic has had a very nice makeover and is also doing well.

The $3,000-something markup to offer a hybrid version of a model will be a problem for awhile. Hopefully, technology will reduce this premium with better batteries and/or capacitors.

Of course, a gas pump spike will reverse this trend quicker than a Lexus LS 600h. :D

tbaleno
04-15-2006, 05:52 PM
The automatic transmissions on most models is a $1500 mark-up but rarely do you hear anyone mention it as an issue.

xcel
04-15-2006, 06:58 PM
Hi Tom:

___I will let the power hybrid’s sit where they are because the HH and the RXh have not shown a very significant real world gain in FE vs. their non-hybrid counterparts. The FEH is a strange one but it too has a rather large premium vs. its non-hybrid counterpart. At least you can deal on them …

___It was not but 12 months ago that brand new 05 HCH-I’s w/ MT’s were going for < $17.5K while being shopped against the LX/EX for < $14.5/16K. Those HCH-I’s were hitting the street for $5K less then the current 06 HCH-II! There is a vast improvement in the 06’s everything vs. the 05’s except for a smidgeon higher real world FE vs. the CVT of course but I do not believe the HCH-II is worth $4 - $5K more then the HCH-I is all …

___Along that line of thinking, new 4-door EX w/ AT’s are hitting the street in the $18,300 - $18,700 range when shopped according to the Edmunds - Prices Paid forum. Mark Roberts was mentioned as the best deal in the country and I hope Psy is making a ton ;) Those real world EX out the door prices not including TTL are a huge discount ($4,000 +) compared to an MSRP deal of $22,700 + for the HCH-II :(

___Prius II’s? Well those things have almost always went for MSRP and MSRP +. When loaded up, the darn things have been seen leaving the lot for > $30K! Even when comparably equipped (package #3), they are still over $23,780. That is a lot of $’s for a compact hatch and must be brought down or they will never sell like the Corolla or non-hybrid Civic’s they are up against.

___When we can wheel and deal on hybrids like the 03 - 05 HCH-I’s in the past and the FEH’s today, the hybrid sales numbers will run back up. The Hybrid premium is not just MSRP to MSRP but MSRP vs. a few hundred over invoice that the non-hybrid’s can be purchased for in the real world. Once the supply issue has been taken care of, then we shall see where it all falls? The market is and has been so distorted that I can almost guarantee Toyota is controlling the Prius II supply like a wolf watches over her pups. An extra 2 days supply and they pull back on the throttles a touch to keep this thing off the lots in quantity and to keep those prices high. Anyone that believes there are Hybrid HW supply issues after 3 + years is blowing a lot of smoke our direction. Supply issues in the auto business do not last but 1 year unless someone has deemed that to be the case.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

tigerhonaker
04-15-2006, 09:37 PM
The people I work with are still asking and Commenting to me on why I chose to Purchase a Hybrid for the Cost of one.

I'm really over explaining it to "Anyone".

xcel
04-15-2006, 10:32 PM
Hi Terry:

___I was a bit rough on the hybrid owners above but it isn’t a hybrid issue I am ticked about. It’s the darn hybrid supply! If we were comparing invoice to invoice, there would not be a problem in the least but why can we find Corolla’s and Camry’s at a few hundred above/below invoice when we cannot find a Prius II for anything but $500 under MSRP to $2,000 above? 06 non-hybrid Civic’s are going out the door in the $300 + over invoice range yet the HCH-II’s are $500 under MSRP to MSRP? This is the real problem in my eyes :(

___Good Luck

___Wayne

tigerhonaker
04-15-2006, 10:40 PM
Hi Terry:

___I was a bit rough on the hybrid owners above but it isn’t a hybrid issue I am ticked about. It’s the darn hybrid supply! If we were comparing invoice to invoice, there would not be a problem in the least but why can we find Corolla’s and Camry’s at a few hundred above/below invoice when we cannot find a Prius II for anything but $500 under MSRP to $2,000 above? 06 non-hybrid Civic’s are going out the door in the $300 + over invoice range yet the HCH-II’s are $500 under MSRP to MSRP? This is the real problem in my eyes :(

___Good Luck

___Wayne
Wayne;

You are seeing the Correct Picture of the Pricing of the Hybrids Versus Non-Hybrids in the Market Place.

And I don't think it will change in the Near-Future based on the Price of ever Increasing Fuel.

There could be alot more Hybrids sold if the Manufactures wanted to get {Serious} about their pricing Policies and, {Limited-Hybrid-Supply}. That they keep it that way and of course that keeps the price up as well.

Supply-and Demand.



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