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Hi All:

Hitting it hard with “The Experts” on biofuels, electricity and any number of other topics.

First off, Robert Topel, Economist from the University of Chicago:

Pricing of dumping carbon into the atmosphere… More later.

Wayne

U of Chicago Econ Robert Topel @Toyota Sustainbility Seminar: Oil $13 to $120/bbl in decade - Supply not sensitive to price. ^WG

Toyota is streaming it live (http://www.toyota.com/esq/events/2011/2011_Sustainable_Mobility_Seminar.html) for those that are interested. Looks like Wayne has a front row seat.

Here is the schedule:In its third year, this special event is designed to explore the complexities, challenges and opportunities facing the automotive industry as we move toward the ultimate goal of sustainable mobility. The 2011 seminar will take an in-depth look into the future of transportation fuels, specifically the societal, economic and environmental impacts of our future fuel choices. From batteries to biofuels, automakers are transitioning to a complex new era that will span cultural, regional, regulatory and business boundaries. The focus of our industry is shifting to mobility systems tailored to specific regions or markets vs. individual models or technologies. This new approach will require a dramatic shift in thinking on the part of automakers, legislators and customers.
The seminar will be conducted as a single wave, with a day and a half of panel presentations. Panelists will briefly present their topics followed by ample time for panel discussion and Q&A.

The seminar will commence with a keynote address by Dr. Robert Topel , of the University of Chicago school of business, on the economics of climate change followed by panel sessions focused on fuels of the future – electricity, hydrogen and additional liquid fuels.

Invited panelists discussing current and future liquid fuels include:

Dr. Peter Wells , of Neftex petroleum consulting, presenting supply and demand petroleum modeling and the implications for future fuels.
Dr. Steve Kay , from UC San Diego, exploring the role of genomic restructuring in advanced bio fuels.
Dr. Dawn Manley , of Sandia National Laboratory, discussing future fuels for future engines.
The hydrogen panel will explore the creation of the fuel itself to the infrastructure required to support the market. Invited panelists include:

Dr. Sandy Thomas , president & co-founder H2Gen Innovations, Inc., discussing hydrogen infrastructure.
Dr. Scott Samuelsen , UC Irvine, exploring the role of distributed generation in hydrogen.
Dr. Alan Weimer , from UC Berkeley discussing the role off high temperature solar in low carbon hydrogen.
The electricity panel will begin with an introduction to the Department of Energy’s Future Transportation Fuels (FTF) Study by Linda Capuano , study director, followed by a discussion on electricity as a future fuel. Invited panelists include:

Jaycie Chitwood , from Toyota, discussing the preliminary findings of the FTF Study Electricity subgroup.
Tony Markel , from National Renewable Energy Laboratory, reviewing the impacts of accessory loads on electric vehicle range.
Dr. Jan Kreider , of JFK & Associates, discussing the real world impacts of electric vehicle infrastructure.

Hi All:

@Toyota Sustainability Seminar: Dr. Peter Wells on Supply from Middle East

World has a lot of gas! Peak in 2030 or 204 vs. Crude (much sooner).

Wayne

Dr. Peter Wells: "CNG is best fuel to use on a CO2 emissions basis" in a std. Toyota Camry.

Wayne

Hi All:

@Toyota Sustainability Seminar: Dr. Peter Wells - Ethanol in the US would not exist without Subsidies.

Wayne

Hi All:

@Toyota Sustainability Seminar: Dr. Steve Kay: Genomic Restructuring and Advanced Biofuels - Also believes Ethanol is non-sense.

There are energy sources that are not only sustainable but useful! The Sun is one. Half the sunlight does provide photosynthesis on the planet.

29K people within 4-miles of hotel working on Biological solution for fuel(s).

Cheap DNA Sequencing makes this possible.

Algae produces oil like byproducts.

2014 is the crossover for Algae based oil to match cost of crude based gasoline/diesel somewhere around $6.00 per gallon

Wayne

Hi All:

@Toyota Sustainability Seminar: Dr. Dawn Manley on Future Fuels for future engineers.

Low ignition point fuels the future. Understand your fuel chemistry and you have idea for engine design.

Wayne

Hi All:

Q: Batch process of Algae in mass an engineering problem? A: Steve Kay: Minimal investment results in minimal results. < 1% of Research $’s are used for this.

Q: Shortage will have solutions? Prius from 2% to 10% for example. A: Peter Wells: Solutions

Q: Propane or butane? A: Peter Wells: Less abundant and more expensive.

A: Steve Kay: 15 TeraWatts used in the world – 85K Terawatts hits the earth per year.

Q: Refining poor crude inputs? A: Peter Wells: Tar Sands Pipeline cap is problem.

Q: Why not more CNG? A: Peter Wells: No CNG Stations and onboard car storage issues.

Wayne

Hi All:

@Toyota Sustainability Seminar: Dr. Sandy Thomas on H2 Fuels up now. Loves OBama admin for electrification. Hates no H2 :(

@Toyota Sustainability Seminar: Dr. Sandy Thomas: H2 for $5.32/kg today and $1.34 in just 6-years.

@Toyota Sustainability Seminar: Dr. Sandy Thomas: H2 refueling stations: Later cost ~ 1.2 Million each.

@Toyota Sustainability Seminar: Dr. Sandy Thomas: EU – 101 Billion for H2 Refueling for Continent. 540 Billion for electrical charging.

@Toyota Sustainability Seminar: Dr. Sandy Thomas: 14 gallons of gasoline = 10 MW’s of electricity. 8 + hour charge times. (Check numbers???)

@Toyota Sustainability Seminar: Dr. Sandy Thomas: Only H2 FCV’s can meet 80% CO2 emission reductions in 50 + years.

@Toyota Sustainability Seminar: Dr. Sandy Thomas: Only FCV tech works for short and long distances.

Some of his numbers do not jive with our understanding... Volt better on gas than electricity... Not in our study!

Wayne

Hi All:

@Toyota Sustainability Seminar: Dr. Scott Samuelson, Dir of Advanced Power – CA Irvine. ^WG

Dist. Energy Production through Stationary Fuel Cell. 50% Thermodynamic Efficiency. ^WG

Shows GM Equinox FCV at the Toyota Seminar ;-) ^WG

PlugPower 5kW FC in home. No cost given :( ^WG

High temp FC’s next generation. 650 to 1,000 degrees C. ^WG

Role of H2? High temp FC – Electricity, H2 for auto refueling and heat to heat. ^WG

Flush the toilet and get H2 in latest “Schemes” and high efficiency too! ^WG

Wayne

Hi All:

@Toyota Sustainability Seminar: Dr. Alan Weimer: Prof. of Chem and Bio Engineering at Univ. of CO. High Temp Solar in Low C H2.

Concentrated solar and deep into chemistry for H2 and 02 production.

Have to keep temps < 1,200 C to avoid using exotic mtl to contain. ^WG

Triple play – 100K kg of H2/day plant, salt water to potable and O2 ~ 1,200 acres of land.

Wayne

Interesting topics, Wayne. Glad to see Toyota paying attention to the future. What do you gather about the attendees - sponsorship, motivation, etc.?

Hi Darrell:

Most non-Toyota event I have ever been fortunate to attend. An only slightly deep look into the details behind years of deep research on a number of subjects. Attendees range across the spectrum. From C&D/R&T to Scientific American and the WSJ. Green Auto writers as well.

All, Internet access has been down all morning and afternoon but is up now so here is this mornings details.

@Toyota Sustainability Seminar: Dr. Linda Capuano: VP Emerging Technologies Marathon Oil – National Petroleum Council Future Transportation Fuels Study

Linda Capuano: Begin a report on Transportation – Protect the environment, Promote economic growth, Support energy security.

300 + study participants

Individual Fuel Vehicle options – Fastest way to 2050 with a commercial product to reduce GHG by 50% relative to 2005?

Mobility Demand – Wal-Mart, FedEx, UPS… what kind of mix of vehicles and fuels are expected.

Biofuels in the incumbent ICE/HEV, NG, BEV or will H2 reign.

Q&A: Study will include all vehicles or modality switching and fuels.

Q&A: Deadline for report? End of this year.

Q&A: Will the Recommendations become as a Road Map? Due to antitrust, no. These are probabilities, not certainties so there will be no definitive answer or direction.

Q&A: How to handle diversity of opinion? We will discuss all contingencies and directions. With the experts and research, most align one way or the other.

Q&A: Who is the Audience? Secretary of Energy but available to everyone and downloadable.

Q&A: Has this been done before? Unique time, second piece is a multi-industry group vs. just academic study and finally a broad reach of individuals and possible solutions across a range of probabilities.

Q&A: How will this be different than academia? Timing now vs. past. Large group of industry participants. Wal-Mart and FedEx into a transportation fuel study is different…

Q&A: Funding for study? Not DOE but individual companies through the NPC.  I do not see independence here.

Wayne

Hi All:

@Toyota Sustainability Seminar: Electricity Panel:

Dr. Jan Kreider – Founding Director of the University of Colorado’s Energy Management.

NPC Future Transportation Overview of Electricity Subgroup. Focus on just one of the pathways from the NPC report subcommittee – Electricity.

Jan is presenting for Jaycie Chitwood, one of the co-chairs of the Electric subgroup.

Spirited discussion on disagreements which in many cases can come to a consensus. Vehicle and infrastructure groups.

In the vehicle area, batteries jumped out… Li-Ion is the key now but something else may emerge.

Infrastructure – Fairly pricy. EVSE (Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment). Charging plug to the electrical panel to the car.

Standards: Does not address EV’s today but will roll in EVSE details as a standard.

2010 – 2050 – Looking at a time trajectory.

Nomenclature:
Parallel PHEV – Both motor or Engine drives the car.
Serial PHEV – Engine does not run the wheels.
BEV –

Battery cost evaluation

This is a study of studies: $1,000/kWh today and $150 to $400/kWh by 2030.

Vision Model: Carbon emission model for a number of different energy mix.

Report is a work in progress.

**********************

REAL WORLD INFRASTRUCTURE NEED FOR EV’s – Unpleasant Realities (Dr. Kreider again…)

Micro look within our group.

What is infrastructure?

Includes everything from electric generation to the car.

Do we have enough rid cap to meet certain level of EV rollout?

A look at CA: Every plant and T&D line was modeled.

With intelligent charging – night time, not a concern. SEE GRAPH.

Northeast? Same conclusion. That part of the infrastructure is in good hands.

Cost of Chargers: At home? No problem. 120V, nothing in some cases. Level 2 - < $2,000. Level 3 – $30 to $40,000USD today

DOE says not a problem.

Our study: 90% Level 2 and 10% Level 3’s in a building at 300 spaces.

Retrofit of building through real contractor bid(s): $12,400 per connect!!! 5 to6X’s greater than DOE for commercial building retrofit.

Level 3 is $106,000 per connection s not all chargers would be lie at the same time (hopefully?).

Real world end of the line costs are 5 to 10X’s the DOE.

Obama 1M EV goal by 2015 is non-sense.

Ignoring reality does not move the ball down the road.

Wayne

Hi All:

@Toyota Sustainability Seminar: Occupant Comfort Energy Impacts on PEVs and Grid Integration Opportunities.Tony Markel: Electrical Vehicle Grid Integration team.

NREL is only National Lab dedicated to advancing renewable energy and efficiency.

Get Vision of Future Transportation NREL Slide.

Passenger Compartment A/C and Heating – Significant impact on driving range iMiEV – MAX A/C and heater on 68% reduction in range. No A/C and Heating – 100%.

Preconditioning vehicles so range is not impacted so hard?

High temps reduce battery life as well.

Preconditioning will depend on your locale. San Antonio will be much higher then Minneapolis. A/C above 30 degrees C and heat when < < 20 degrees C.

Conclusions: Only a 20 to 30% reduction in range with Preconditioning.

Battery capacity loss over life:

PHEV15 - 2.1%
PHEV40 - 4.1%
EV100 - + 7.1%

Smart charging – To reduce Transformer Temp below degradation temperature if possible. Simple 10-minute decouple and recouple then transformer cools. Residential area can charge 36 EVs with this strategy and low level of harm to transformers.

2015 PHEVs can reduce crude oil consumption by 50%. 

2030 PEVs powered by renewables reduce consumption by 80%.

NREL built super building – 1 MW Solar and Grid with Smart Charging –

Q&A:

Q: V2G?
A: Tony Markel: Any cycle on the battery is a cycle of degradation. Manufactures design vehicles for you, not you and V2G. Even for 5 to 10% cycle of the battery over an entire day is a lot of electricity throughput.

NiMH and Li-Ion – Li-Ion Energy throughput matters, NiMH, cycles matters for longevity.

Q: Rare Earth’s concern: Why not a long term problem?
A: Many sources for metal. Real issue is how soon can other mines be brought online. It is matter of time and policy, not a shortage.

A: On the Toyota R&D side, they always look to improve the product and less expensive. About 3-months ago at the Detroit Show, induction motors do not use nearly the amount of Rare Earths and will be coming online in consumer vehicles. Toyota is finding paths around problem.

Q: Level 3 charging Degradation?
A: Jan: Battery tech is not ready for it today. Tony:

Q: Is heat main degradation mechanism of Li-Ion’s or Chemistry?
A: It is heat harming the batteries longevity.

Q: Growth of EVs over time causing issues on the grid?
A: Jan: 20 new plants online over the years and no problem for grid load?

Q: Number of Chargers in the Country at 20K by ????
A: Jan - Study saw $’s spent for a retrofit much more expensive.

Q: Who came up with charger costs?
A: Jan - INL produced costs 3-years back and they do not match our real world cost study.

Q: 68% reduction in range with EV heating. Gasoline heating?
A: Grid seems more viable. Emissions with fuel fired heater are not considered.

Q:
A: Grid storage is beyond the scope of the NPC study.

Q: Localized supply?
A: Defense National Security interest. Reinforcing localized generation is worth exploring.

Q: Electrical discussion. High Capacitance Batteries?
A: Not ready within scope of Study. Only a white paper addition.

Q: Positive impacts or value for Level 3 charging.
A: Level 3 is not to drive across the country. It is for localized driving. Not just 50-miles but 150-miles.
Dwell or sitting time (30 + minutes) every 50 to 100 miles makes no sense.

Q: Chargers installed at too high a rate? Does average EV driver need chargers?
A: Workplace charging is the killer app… (My words)

Q: High mileage work commutes in LA. Make attractive only if work charging is available during the day. Selfish vs. cooperative charging?
A: NPC does not study consumer behavior.

Wayne

Most impressive. There's just too much to digest, so your bullet points really help. Maybe the science writers can do what they're paid to do, & summarize the best & brightest.

Oh, and La Jolla, with this beautiful weather?!

Hi All:

Another great reason to have been in La Jolla this week :)

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/523/Rav4_EVs.jpg
2013 Rav4EV Prototypes! We drove them too!

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/523/Prius_PHEV_-_7_8_miles_driven_on_7_7_miles_of_EV_Range_Consumed.jpg
2012 Toyota Prius PHEV-12/13 anyone ;)

I was handed the keys with the pack topped off and 13.6 miles of EV range shown. Drove 7.8 miles and lost 7.7 miles of EV range. Stop light to stop light at Rush hour in La Jolla, CA but it still should have provided more range on less “juice” with the driving “style” I was using???

Wayne

Oh boy!! I'm excited to hear your impressions of the new RAV4 EV!!

Hi Sean:

They were all very early prototypes which was quite unusual for Toyota to allow a journalist to drive. Very unusual indeed!

Missing was the std. STAR safety system that Toyota will employ before the production variants reach us and the usual fitment that Toyota is known for.

The RAV4EV’s have a 0 to 60 time of ~ 9.3 sec. which is pretty darn quick for a small SUV, a AER of ~ 96 miles (36 kWh pack useable) and it handles better than the std. RAV4 due to the pack placement allowing a lower Cg. There was no extra instrumentation to mentions as it is still being finalized but I am sure it will arrive with a Prius like display including efficiencies, SoC, DTE plus the new AZURE telematics system with distance to nearest charging point, range of the car to furthest charging point before depletion stops you dead, remote and current charging profile to meet your needs, pre-conditioning of the interior…

It had a terrible MAX regen action similar to the MiniE that we have all come to loathe. Toyota said they will probably dial that way down if not eliminate it altogether with a button/switch once in a final production form.

Instead of a stick, it used buttons for D, R, L and P. Not a game changer but just different and it may or may not make it into the final production vehicle. And because this was a very early on production unit, it had the large Red Emergency Stop button on the driver’s side dash for that just in case moment. This button engaged the solenoids which then opened up the breakers from the pack to the inverter.

And the most important thing of all provided at the Toyota Sustainability seminar was?

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/2/Toyota_Cookie_SWAG.jpg
The Toyota Cookie and boy was it good :D

While not even close to most important thing by comparison to the information the multitude of presenters provided, I arrived about 02:00 AM in the morning and Teresa Bacal of Mission Impossible (Toyota’s contracted event handlers) had made sure there was a cheese tray, beef jerky, an apple and banana for me to snack on when I arrived. It was a life-saver to put it bluntly.

Wayne

Sounds like the makings of an excellent vehicle to me!

Too bad it didn't have any instrumentation that could give you an idea of miles per kW.

Hi All:
...
Cost of Chargers: At home? No problem. 120V, nothing in some cases. Level 2 - < $2,000. Level 3 – $30 to $40,000USD today

DOE says not a problem.

Our study: 90% Level 2 and 10% Level 3’s in a building at 300 spaces.

Retrofit of building through real contractor bid(s): $12,400 per connect!!! 5 to6X’s greater than DOE for commercial building retrofit.

Level 3 is $106,000 per connection s not all chargers would be lie at the same time (hopefully?).

Real world end of the line costs are 5 to 10X’s the DOE.

Obama 1M EV goal by 2015 is non-sense.

Ignoring reality does not move the ball down the road.

Wayne

I'm curious how the costs break out.

If you have space/available amps on your home service panel, level 2 should cost about the same as wiring a central A/C unit. For a three hundred unit installation though, there'd probably need to be additional electrical infrastructure (maybe including dedicated transformers?).

Hi Rich:

The study was blind and they asked three local contractors for bids to wire (retrofit) an existing 3-story parking garage with a given number of chargers in an approximate 90% 240V and 10% Quick DC charger mix. All 3-bids came in within 10% of one another and the cost was 6X's what the DOE has continuously touted. This included core drilling for wiring from floor to floor but had no additional monies for a larger feeder and associated HW to the building itself.

Wayne

Hi Rich:

The study was blind and they asked three local contractors for bids to wire (retrofit) an existing 3-story parking garage with a given number of chargers in an approximate 90% 240V and 10% Quick DC charger mix. All 3-bids came in within 10% of one another and the cost was 6X's what the DOE has continuously touted. This included core drilling for wiring from floor to floor but had no additional monies for a larger feeder and associated HW to the building itself.

Wayne

I don't know what code is for parking structures, but if surface mount conduit is acceptable the core drilling wouldn't account for much cost discrepancy--maybe 1 day's work for a rig at ~ $2,000/day. Even if you have to core drill each connection to comply with code I'd guesstimate coring costs at less than $250/connection. (for comparison $50 is the usual unit rate I pay for a simple drill rig concrete penetration in a street or parking lot; coring is more expensive, but makes a tidier hole.)

The bids seem high, probably they put in a lot of cushion for dealing with an unfamiliar client and technology?

Hi Rich:

I only know the base job specs and detail that was provided. The study was completed to find out what the actual cost of installing all of those chargers vs. the DOE's cost estimates. The presenter did say a new building should be less expensive but there is not going to be much new construction for the foreseeable future.

I do not know what the chargers themselves cost but I would assume a connected charger would cost no more than an extra $500 vs. a dumb charger?

Wayne