xcel
01-21-2007, 09:35 AM
Is GM ready to do it right this time around? (http://www.cleanmpg.com/forums/in-the-news/t-detroit-auto-show-2007-chevrolet-volt-shocks-the-industry-conclusion-3312.html)
http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/548/Resize_of_Volt_Front_View.jpgWayne Gerdes/Tom Baleno/Rich Krueger - CleanMPG.com (www.cleanmpg.com) - Dec. 7, 2006
Chevrolet Volt - The time is now.
Final of a 3 part series.
The Chevrolet Volt - PHEV, while not yet a roadworthy vehicle and filled with conceptual design technology simply because GM could, should not lessen the message of a low carbon emission-based transportation future. GM appears to be very concerned given the recent history of high gasoline prices, current oil supply and future outlook. As an underground project to avoid naysayers and competition and more importantly get a head start on a PHEV development project of this magnitude, the Volt was designed with the idea to create a real electric vehicle. In fact, the design team's goal of an all-electric propulsion system was paramount over and above everything else. With an expected 300 million more vehicles on the road by 2020, something has to give. Given that too much of the world's transportation fuel resources are available only from hostile or non-stable areas of the globe, and disappointment with the current administration's ideas about energy independence, GM felt it was time to be "absolutely dead serious" about getting energy options out to the consumer both in America and across the globe.
Not another SUV. Despite GM’s commitment to DualMode hybrid technology debuting in their largest vehicles and then trickling down to the smaller vehicles systematically, the Chevrolet Volt is a breath of fresh air. With a target goal of only 3140 lbs and sized to be sold within a functional and wide appealing framework, this vehicle is all about efficiency, not performance or size. It should last well over a decade without any difficulties and adaptable to whatever the future of technology and/or industries may hold. "Lithium Ion is a great technology." says Bob Posawatz, project manager of the Volt, who was adamant about size constraints of the vehicle. Not another two seater or other small vehicle, nor a behemoth, this is a sensible, smart vehicle that people actually use. "We don't want to sell this idea to America, we want to sell it to the world," laughed Posawatz, "In Europe and Japan, people don't want large SUV's."
It's a great vehicle that we will never see as presented. "It needs new base architecture," says Posawatz, who chose the body style based on a worldwide competition which gave the size and weight targets to the designers to see what they would come up with. Originally tested with the Cobalt platform, this new CTS/Malibu-like appearance won out. Or did it? "Don't be surprised to see it at another show with a different body on it," says Posawatz. The idea isn't the body, or the displays, or even the technology currently inside it. It's to press the development forward, to cherry pick the best features, and to enable GM to make a very thorough statement as they press design and technology forward and away from a single source of vehicular fuel. They are concerned and they want people to look at GM as a company that knows getting by just isn't good enough.
Bob Lutz’ Chevrolet “Volt” concept presentation follows in its entirety:
Ladies and Gentleman, the 2007 Chevrolet Volt Concept.
Bob Lutz: Well here it is, the Chevrolet Volt. An electrically driven car from General Motors. I am shocked. Truly shocked. A GM electric vehicle is an “Inconvenient Truth”. And the truth is, we are moving forward with technology that will unite several sources of energy and “E-Flex” technology is the conduit that’s going to make that happen. The Chevrolet Volt is a real world example of how “E-Flex” can be configured into an extended range electric vehicle. It’s equipped with a small engine and an onboard generator that creates electricity to recharge the electric propulsion system when necessary.
Now beyond proving that our “E-Flex” system can be applied to real vehicles, the Chevy Volt proves another very important point and that is that environmentally conscious cars can actually look good as well. This is a no compromise design. The Volt was designed in collaboration with GE plastics. It incorporates advanced material technology from GE in the roof, in the exterior body panels, the instrument panel and interior lighting. Now these GE advanced materials save weight and allowed our designers to create shapes that wouldn’t be possible with more conventional materials. So I hope you will come up and take a closer look inside and out and see for yourselves when we conclude.
On the road, the Chevrolet Volt can go up to 40 miles using only its Li-Ion batteries to drive the wheels. Now. When greater range is required, its unique flex fuel internal combustion engine kicks in. Note that this engine, unlike in hybrids, this engine never drives the wheels. Rather along with a generator, the engine creates more electricity to drive the vehicle on electric power.
Now, why does the Volt get 40 miles of pure EV range and not more? Well, interesting fact. 78% of Americans live within 20 miles of work so if your daily driving whether to work or running errands or for recreational use is 40 miles a day or less and you charge the vehicle every night when you get home, you will never need to buy gasoline during the entire life of the vehicle. And you would save 500 gallons of gasoline and eliminate 4.4 metric tons of CO2 a year from the tailpipe.
Now, even if your daily driving is 60 miles, where you would be doing 40 purely electrically and then 20 with the generator set cut in, you would still be averaging 150 mpg based on EPA city adjusted cycles. And should you use E85, which is of course is 85% alcohol and only 15% petroleum based gasoline, you would get more then 500 miles per equivalent petroleum gallon. Obviously because E85 is only 15% petroleum. By using electricity or Hydrogen which is simply stored electricity in a different form, Americans and people all over the world would decrease their dependence on oil without decreasing their personal independence which is the kind of personal independence that we can only get from the privately owned automobile.
Now, as Rick said, it’s the flex part of “E-Flex”, its wide range of potential energy sources that makes this architecture so significant.
Let’s say we do a vehicle with a Li-Ion battery that is plug-in capable like this Chevy Volt here meaning that it receives and stores its energy from the electric power grid. Such a vehicle would be equipped with a small flex fuel engine that can run on ethanol or Bio-diesel and that would be used to recharge the batteries while the vehicle is running.
Now this will dramatically extend its range to over 600 miles by the way. Beyond that example, the capability of “E-Flex” runs the gamut of energy sources and applied technology including Fuel Cels! If “E-Flex” were configured with a fuel cel for example, the vehicle could be equipped with a much smaller battery which would simply be there for initial acceleration boost and for the capture of the energy from regenerative braking. The Fuel Cel would be driving the wheels just as it now does in our Chevrolet Sequel Fuel Cel concept car.
Now all of these examples have one thing in common. They are electrically driven vehicles that provide us the opportunity to diversify the fuel sources that generate the electricity that actually drives the wheels. And that is the real beauty of “E-Flex”. That’s what makes it a global solution that can be adapted to suit local and regional needs. And I think that is what makes it a whole new ball game.
I’ve been talking about GM’s transformation into a company with a bone deep commitment to design and technology leadership. “E-Flex” is a huge part of that. A perfect example of what we’ve been saying and I’m honestly as excited and as passionate about this program as I have ever been about anything that I have done in my 40 years in this business.
So with that, I’d like to thank you very much for your attention. Rick and I will be up on the stage and will be joined by Jon Lauckner, VP of Global Program Management who is one of the huge driving forces behind this program. And Tony Posawatz, who has been assigned the responsibility of vehicle line director as we engineer this vehicle. And between the four of us, especially from the two experts, I am sure that we will be able to answer the bulk of your questions.
And we will also be very happy to answer any questions you may have about our “Clean Sweep” of the “Car and Truck of the Year” awards.
Thank you very much. Thanks very much for that applause. Saturn Aura, “Car of the Year”, Chevy Silverado, “Truck of the Year” and I think it’s a vindication and a reward that we gratefully and faithfully accept on behalf of all the really really skilled and talented people at General Motors who want just one thing and one thing only and that’s to return General Motors to the top of the world auto industry in terms of vehicle excellence.
So thank you very much. Rick and gentlemen.
And a few of Bob Lutz’ other comments worth mentioning:
“The EV1 was the benchmark in battery technology and was a tremendous achievement,” Lutz said. “Even so, electric vehicles, in general, had limitations. They had limited range, limited room for passengers or luggage, couldn’t climb a hill or run the air conditioning without depleting the battery, and had no device to get you home when the battery’s charge ran low.
“The Chevrolet Volt is a new type of electric vehicle. It addresses the range problem and has room for passengers and their stuff. You can climb a hill or turn on the air conditioning and not worry about it.”
With Lutz’ possible trivialization of “An Inconvenient Truth” and its message about Global Warming in the first paragraph of a major Concept presentation plus a bit of additional nonsense about the EV1, herein lies our hesitation with regards to GM’s sincerity to make this happen. GM certainly has the capability to put the “Volt” or similar Series or Parallel PHEV on the road but do they have the wherewithal to follow through with a new project of this magnitude? GM’s credibility amongst both the environmental and hybrid communities is at best suspect because as of this writing, there has never been an electric automobile from GM for sale to the general public, EVER. On the hybrid side of the equation, GM offerings to date have been dismal failures from our perspective, which raises yet more questions with regards to GM, its capabilities and its future product plans.
Let us look back at the EV1 and the many alternative designs GM failed to produce, let alone mention when it came time to discuss the Chevrolet Volt PHEV with its own range extending solutions. GM revealed several prototype variants of the EV1 at the 1998 Detroit Auto Show. The models included diesel/electric parallel hybrid, gas turbine/electric series hybrid, fuel cell/electric version and compressed natural gas low emission internal combustion engine version.
http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/548/GM_EV1_4-seat_series_hybrid.jpg
GM EV1 series hybrid prototype in a 4 seat configuration shown at the EVS-16 symposium in Beijing, China, 1999. Photo by Peter Van den Bossche.
As shown, GM has produced Electric Vehicles that were without limited range, without limited passenger room, could climb a hill without depleting the battery, and could get you home when the battery’s charge ran low.
What also raises some questions and skepticism are some of Lutz’ past accomplishments including the “Dodge Viper” and current “Chevrolet Camaro concept”. These were not well received in terms of making either Dodge or GM real $’s yet or having anything to do with reducing CO2 emissions or our dependence on foreign oil supplies. Neither were his recent blog entries from Dec 22 of last year entitled Season’s Rantings (http://fastlane.gmblogs.com/archives/bob_lutz/) detailing his aversion to the upcoming CAFÉ standards. We have to give him credit for the design and launch of the Pontiac Solstice as it is a beautiful 2-seat convertible. With its limited market and sales potential however, its financial success remains to be seen.
What about the Volt’s specifications (http://www.cleanmpg.com/forums/in-the-news/t-detroit-auto-show-2007-chevrolet-volt-shocks-the-industry-part-ii-3275.html)? With an ICE capable of a continuous 53 HP and a possible maximum 72 HP through the MGSet, the ICE is going to power the large traction motor via the MGSet for propulsion and fill the battery at the same time if needed. So far, we do not see a power spec problem yet. How the Electric Buss(s) are configured will be a minor issue vs. the news of the PHEV capable “Volt”. Can a Series hybrid solution compete with a Parallel based hybrid? Parallel hybrids have the advantage of being able to use both the ICE and the large traction motor via battery for power at the same time so as to limit the size and costs of each. A Series hybrid has the advantage of simplicity of design and usually a smaller ICE, but to achieve equivalent power output 2 even larger electric motors and usually battery with their additional costs and weight are needed for similar performance. A Series hybrid is at a slight disadvantage in FE over hundreds of miles, but with the large traction motor and pack in the Volt - Series Hybrid with no fuel consumed over most short trips and commutes plus the ability to control the ICE’s output over a tightly controlled and fuel efficient RPM band once the Range Extender (ICE) is running. GM should have no problem making up for any disadvantage that could be anticipated today.
What has been stated publicly and our feel as to what GM is doing behind the scenes. GM has the capability but will they deliver?
Harry Pearce, the retired vice-chairman of General Motors who was responsible for the EV-1 project before it was cancelled, called the E-flex concept "A home run. I've always felt electric propulsion was the endgame. I'm very confident this vehicle is going to be produced."
Bob Lutz, the President of GM. "The engineering development of the car itself is 18 months from being completed. The batteries are about 18 months behind the rest of the car."
Jon Lauckner, the GM vice president. "This program is not a public-relations ploy. We are dead serious about taking this technology into high-volume production."
Tony Posawatz, the vehicle line director. "The vehicle on display at the auto show is a concept car, but GM is intent on developing a production version."
We spoke with a bevy of GM Corporate leaders, engineers and marketing employees manning the GM show floor and the word on the carpet was that this concept (or at least its underlying E-Flex platform) is a “Go”!
While leaving the show on Day 2, we ran into Chelsea and Bob Sexton of “Who Killed the Electric Car”. A short conversation ensued about the Chevrolet Volt. The multiple inside sources they had spoken with the previous 24 hours also declared the “E-Flex” project was a go.
There were other inside players besides top management who mentioned the underlying energy was indeed real and not just a smoke screen, and thus we also believe this concept will become a streetable automobile in similar form to that shown in the not too distant future.
What about the Li-Ion batteries? We had discussions with employees from both JCI-SAFT and A123Systems about the current state of the Li-Ion cel’s and pack technologies supplied to GM for internal testing. From both courts, they both said there was no known issue in meeting any of the specs needed for the “E-Flex” platform. The large JCI-SAFT and A123Systems Li-Ion packs currently in GM PHEVs have performed magnificently to date although we did not receive independent verification of those statements. We understand the hesitation from the heads of the major automobile manufacturers with regards to Li-Ion longevity, supply and quality control, but from the discussions and testing that have been completed so far, we can think of no other reason (other then negotiated cost) why the Li-Ion packs of appropriate size and quality would not be ready for PHEV install well before a possible 2010 model year release. Expect to see the 15 + kWh packs for less than $500/kWh and in quantity to meet any demand that may arise in the near term. This may seem like a huge expense and it is but with Cel costs falling month by month, it is only a matter of time before a large enough Li-Ion PHEV pack is not only cost effective but also affordable for a mass market offering GM is currently pursuing.
The Chevrolet Volt’s “E-Flex” platform. Currently, the E-Flex could house something similar to a mass produced Cobalt body, as that is where the Volt’s base platform arose. The Chevrolet Cobalt is not the most desirable vehicle as seen by its year over year sales numbers but with GM following through with exciting interiors, exteriors and acceptable performance and handling characteristics (see the new Chevrolet Malibu or Cadillac CTS as examples), Tony Posawatz and his team appear unwilling to settle for mediocrity for the first major PHEV release seen anywhere. In other words, it will not be an unfashionable nor undesirable automobile. We can only hope the bean counters do not get in the way and ruin what could be the first of many ground breaking automobiles from GM in the not too distant future …
Who else? If not by GM, Ford, DCX, Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi or some yet unknown small company will produce a high quality PHEV because it makes too much sense given all the problems it can solve in one fell swoop. Price is still a problem but even that will be overcome. Anyone who has their hands in Fuel Cel R&D can make an “E-Flex” like platform under their own brand, thus competition is yet another reason why we believe GM will follow through. GM does not have enough $’s in the bank to sustain continuing losses seen this past year and the Chevrolet “Volt” could be the vehicle which helps GM win back the current non-domestic automobile purchaser with an exciting, high quality automobile at a price most would deem reasonable given its capabilities.
Will GM follow through? We know of GM PHEV-capable - DualMode equipped SUV’s w/ 7 kWh Li-Ion packs already on the road. Because DualMode is scalable to any size and format, why not just expand on a parallel designed - plug-in capable - DualMode in any one of GM’s current platforms? Toyota is heading in that direction with HSD or one of its future variants being offered in more of its standard vehicles each and every year. Ford is planning to follow in Toyota’s footsteps with a Ford Fusion variant of the FEH HEV platform late next year as well. We believe DualMode is the Chevrolet Volt’s “E-Flex” platform biggest competitor at this time. From the same company mind you, but with the possibility of similar performance characteristics. GM will soon have to make up its mind whether to follow through with yet a second hybrid platform being the series-hybrid Volt when the parallel-hybrid DualMode solution may perform as well with less cash outlay. This question has yet to be answered but it is an interesting one from our perspective.
Your Vote. And like most mass media outlets in today’s 24/7 advertising world, there is a poll. Feel free to offer your vote either yes or no on the following 2 questions:Would you like to see GM build the Chevrolet Volt?
If GM builds the Chevrolet Volt, would you consider buying one?Vote here. (http://www.gmsurveys2.com/se.ashx?s=7C7FD94F76D8CE27)
Our hopes … Ok GM, it's game time. It is late in the fourth and the 2-minute warning has sounded. You are 6 points behind and its time to take the ball into the end zone. We have been waiting for far too long for an automobile from GM with both pizzazz and even the slightest hint of environmental credentials worth considering. The Volt and its underlying “E-Flex” platform have our undivided attention. If you fail to produce, there won’t be a rock on earth to hide under this time around. I also know of a Toyota Prius III w/ PHEV capability that will receive my earnings in the not to distant future if you fail to produce. If you prevail, you will have converted hundreds of thousands if not millions of us who will line up with checks in hand.
Here is my offer. I will personally write and deliver a certified check for $33,000 to Bob Lutz for a loaded Pontiac Solstice with the perfected E-Flex/Chevrolet Volt platform and its advertised capabilities underneath. You tell me where and when and I will deliver that check to you in person post haste.
http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/548/Pontiac_Solstice_Front.jpghttp://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/548/Pontiac_Solstice.jpg
Anybody want a 2010 Pontiac Solstice w/ a 40 mile PHEV capability?
Conclusion. Ultimately it is the economics. Replacing gasoline with electricity in an affordable automobile will drive demand for a PHEV like the Chevrolet “Volt” to obscene levels in short order. The cost to drive an automobile like the Volt a distance of 40 miles on electricity is less than $1 in many areas of the country vs. the same distance from a single gallon of gasoline at more then twice the price. PHEVs are our best opportunity for energy independence and at the same time reducing our CO2 and smog-forming emissions drastically. As the electric supply becomes greener, the environmental impact of our daily drive is lessened day after day, week after week, month after month and year after year.
The choice is clear: Build it and we will come.
Part I - Chevrolet “VOLT” introductions. (http://www.cleanmpg.com/forums/in-the-news/t-detroit-auto-show-2007-chevrolet-volt-shocks-the-industry-3262.html)
Part II - Chevrolet “VOLT” specifications. (http://www.cleanmpg.com/forums/in-the-news/t-detroit-auto-show-2007-chevrolet-volt-shocks-the-industry-part-ii-3275.html)
Tarabell, thank you for your assistance.
http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/548/Resize_of_Volt_Front_View.jpgWayne Gerdes/Tom Baleno/Rich Krueger - CleanMPG.com (www.cleanmpg.com) - Dec. 7, 2006
Chevrolet Volt - The time is now.
Final of a 3 part series.
The Chevrolet Volt - PHEV, while not yet a roadworthy vehicle and filled with conceptual design technology simply because GM could, should not lessen the message of a low carbon emission-based transportation future. GM appears to be very concerned given the recent history of high gasoline prices, current oil supply and future outlook. As an underground project to avoid naysayers and competition and more importantly get a head start on a PHEV development project of this magnitude, the Volt was designed with the idea to create a real electric vehicle. In fact, the design team's goal of an all-electric propulsion system was paramount over and above everything else. With an expected 300 million more vehicles on the road by 2020, something has to give. Given that too much of the world's transportation fuel resources are available only from hostile or non-stable areas of the globe, and disappointment with the current administration's ideas about energy independence, GM felt it was time to be "absolutely dead serious" about getting energy options out to the consumer both in America and across the globe.
Not another SUV. Despite GM’s commitment to DualMode hybrid technology debuting in their largest vehicles and then trickling down to the smaller vehicles systematically, the Chevrolet Volt is a breath of fresh air. With a target goal of only 3140 lbs and sized to be sold within a functional and wide appealing framework, this vehicle is all about efficiency, not performance or size. It should last well over a decade without any difficulties and adaptable to whatever the future of technology and/or industries may hold. "Lithium Ion is a great technology." says Bob Posawatz, project manager of the Volt, who was adamant about size constraints of the vehicle. Not another two seater or other small vehicle, nor a behemoth, this is a sensible, smart vehicle that people actually use. "We don't want to sell this idea to America, we want to sell it to the world," laughed Posawatz, "In Europe and Japan, people don't want large SUV's."
It's a great vehicle that we will never see as presented. "It needs new base architecture," says Posawatz, who chose the body style based on a worldwide competition which gave the size and weight targets to the designers to see what they would come up with. Originally tested with the Cobalt platform, this new CTS/Malibu-like appearance won out. Or did it? "Don't be surprised to see it at another show with a different body on it," says Posawatz. The idea isn't the body, or the displays, or even the technology currently inside it. It's to press the development forward, to cherry pick the best features, and to enable GM to make a very thorough statement as they press design and technology forward and away from a single source of vehicular fuel. They are concerned and they want people to look at GM as a company that knows getting by just isn't good enough.
Bob Lutz’ Chevrolet “Volt” concept presentation follows in its entirety:
Ladies and Gentleman, the 2007 Chevrolet Volt Concept.
Bob Lutz: Well here it is, the Chevrolet Volt. An electrically driven car from General Motors. I am shocked. Truly shocked. A GM electric vehicle is an “Inconvenient Truth”. And the truth is, we are moving forward with technology that will unite several sources of energy and “E-Flex” technology is the conduit that’s going to make that happen. The Chevrolet Volt is a real world example of how “E-Flex” can be configured into an extended range electric vehicle. It’s equipped with a small engine and an onboard generator that creates electricity to recharge the electric propulsion system when necessary.
Now beyond proving that our “E-Flex” system can be applied to real vehicles, the Chevy Volt proves another very important point and that is that environmentally conscious cars can actually look good as well. This is a no compromise design. The Volt was designed in collaboration with GE plastics. It incorporates advanced material technology from GE in the roof, in the exterior body panels, the instrument panel and interior lighting. Now these GE advanced materials save weight and allowed our designers to create shapes that wouldn’t be possible with more conventional materials. So I hope you will come up and take a closer look inside and out and see for yourselves when we conclude.
On the road, the Chevrolet Volt can go up to 40 miles using only its Li-Ion batteries to drive the wheels. Now. When greater range is required, its unique flex fuel internal combustion engine kicks in. Note that this engine, unlike in hybrids, this engine never drives the wheels. Rather along with a generator, the engine creates more electricity to drive the vehicle on electric power.
Now, why does the Volt get 40 miles of pure EV range and not more? Well, interesting fact. 78% of Americans live within 20 miles of work so if your daily driving whether to work or running errands or for recreational use is 40 miles a day or less and you charge the vehicle every night when you get home, you will never need to buy gasoline during the entire life of the vehicle. And you would save 500 gallons of gasoline and eliminate 4.4 metric tons of CO2 a year from the tailpipe.
Now, even if your daily driving is 60 miles, where you would be doing 40 purely electrically and then 20 with the generator set cut in, you would still be averaging 150 mpg based on EPA city adjusted cycles. And should you use E85, which is of course is 85% alcohol and only 15% petroleum based gasoline, you would get more then 500 miles per equivalent petroleum gallon. Obviously because E85 is only 15% petroleum. By using electricity or Hydrogen which is simply stored electricity in a different form, Americans and people all over the world would decrease their dependence on oil without decreasing their personal independence which is the kind of personal independence that we can only get from the privately owned automobile.
Now, as Rick said, it’s the flex part of “E-Flex”, its wide range of potential energy sources that makes this architecture so significant.
Let’s say we do a vehicle with a Li-Ion battery that is plug-in capable like this Chevy Volt here meaning that it receives and stores its energy from the electric power grid. Such a vehicle would be equipped with a small flex fuel engine that can run on ethanol or Bio-diesel and that would be used to recharge the batteries while the vehicle is running.
Now this will dramatically extend its range to over 600 miles by the way. Beyond that example, the capability of “E-Flex” runs the gamut of energy sources and applied technology including Fuel Cels! If “E-Flex” were configured with a fuel cel for example, the vehicle could be equipped with a much smaller battery which would simply be there for initial acceleration boost and for the capture of the energy from regenerative braking. The Fuel Cel would be driving the wheels just as it now does in our Chevrolet Sequel Fuel Cel concept car.
Now all of these examples have one thing in common. They are electrically driven vehicles that provide us the opportunity to diversify the fuel sources that generate the electricity that actually drives the wheels. And that is the real beauty of “E-Flex”. That’s what makes it a global solution that can be adapted to suit local and regional needs. And I think that is what makes it a whole new ball game.
I’ve been talking about GM’s transformation into a company with a bone deep commitment to design and technology leadership. “E-Flex” is a huge part of that. A perfect example of what we’ve been saying and I’m honestly as excited and as passionate about this program as I have ever been about anything that I have done in my 40 years in this business.
So with that, I’d like to thank you very much for your attention. Rick and I will be up on the stage and will be joined by Jon Lauckner, VP of Global Program Management who is one of the huge driving forces behind this program. And Tony Posawatz, who has been assigned the responsibility of vehicle line director as we engineer this vehicle. And between the four of us, especially from the two experts, I am sure that we will be able to answer the bulk of your questions.
And we will also be very happy to answer any questions you may have about our “Clean Sweep” of the “Car and Truck of the Year” awards.
Thank you very much. Thanks very much for that applause. Saturn Aura, “Car of the Year”, Chevy Silverado, “Truck of the Year” and I think it’s a vindication and a reward that we gratefully and faithfully accept on behalf of all the really really skilled and talented people at General Motors who want just one thing and one thing only and that’s to return General Motors to the top of the world auto industry in terms of vehicle excellence.
So thank you very much. Rick and gentlemen.
And a few of Bob Lutz’ other comments worth mentioning:
“The EV1 was the benchmark in battery technology and was a tremendous achievement,” Lutz said. “Even so, electric vehicles, in general, had limitations. They had limited range, limited room for passengers or luggage, couldn’t climb a hill or run the air conditioning without depleting the battery, and had no device to get you home when the battery’s charge ran low.
“The Chevrolet Volt is a new type of electric vehicle. It addresses the range problem and has room for passengers and their stuff. You can climb a hill or turn on the air conditioning and not worry about it.”
With Lutz’ possible trivialization of “An Inconvenient Truth” and its message about Global Warming in the first paragraph of a major Concept presentation plus a bit of additional nonsense about the EV1, herein lies our hesitation with regards to GM’s sincerity to make this happen. GM certainly has the capability to put the “Volt” or similar Series or Parallel PHEV on the road but do they have the wherewithal to follow through with a new project of this magnitude? GM’s credibility amongst both the environmental and hybrid communities is at best suspect because as of this writing, there has never been an electric automobile from GM for sale to the general public, EVER. On the hybrid side of the equation, GM offerings to date have been dismal failures from our perspective, which raises yet more questions with regards to GM, its capabilities and its future product plans.
Let us look back at the EV1 and the many alternative designs GM failed to produce, let alone mention when it came time to discuss the Chevrolet Volt PHEV with its own range extending solutions. GM revealed several prototype variants of the EV1 at the 1998 Detroit Auto Show. The models included diesel/electric parallel hybrid, gas turbine/electric series hybrid, fuel cell/electric version and compressed natural gas low emission internal combustion engine version.
http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/548/GM_EV1_4-seat_series_hybrid.jpg
GM EV1 series hybrid prototype in a 4 seat configuration shown at the EVS-16 symposium in Beijing, China, 1999. Photo by Peter Van den Bossche.
As shown, GM has produced Electric Vehicles that were without limited range, without limited passenger room, could climb a hill without depleting the battery, and could get you home when the battery’s charge ran low.
What also raises some questions and skepticism are some of Lutz’ past accomplishments including the “Dodge Viper” and current “Chevrolet Camaro concept”. These were not well received in terms of making either Dodge or GM real $’s yet or having anything to do with reducing CO2 emissions or our dependence on foreign oil supplies. Neither were his recent blog entries from Dec 22 of last year entitled Season’s Rantings (http://fastlane.gmblogs.com/archives/bob_lutz/) detailing his aversion to the upcoming CAFÉ standards. We have to give him credit for the design and launch of the Pontiac Solstice as it is a beautiful 2-seat convertible. With its limited market and sales potential however, its financial success remains to be seen.
What about the Volt’s specifications (http://www.cleanmpg.com/forums/in-the-news/t-detroit-auto-show-2007-chevrolet-volt-shocks-the-industry-part-ii-3275.html)? With an ICE capable of a continuous 53 HP and a possible maximum 72 HP through the MGSet, the ICE is going to power the large traction motor via the MGSet for propulsion and fill the battery at the same time if needed. So far, we do not see a power spec problem yet. How the Electric Buss(s) are configured will be a minor issue vs. the news of the PHEV capable “Volt”. Can a Series hybrid solution compete with a Parallel based hybrid? Parallel hybrids have the advantage of being able to use both the ICE and the large traction motor via battery for power at the same time so as to limit the size and costs of each. A Series hybrid has the advantage of simplicity of design and usually a smaller ICE, but to achieve equivalent power output 2 even larger electric motors and usually battery with their additional costs and weight are needed for similar performance. A Series hybrid is at a slight disadvantage in FE over hundreds of miles, but with the large traction motor and pack in the Volt - Series Hybrid with no fuel consumed over most short trips and commutes plus the ability to control the ICE’s output over a tightly controlled and fuel efficient RPM band once the Range Extender (ICE) is running. GM should have no problem making up for any disadvantage that could be anticipated today.
What has been stated publicly and our feel as to what GM is doing behind the scenes. GM has the capability but will they deliver?
Harry Pearce, the retired vice-chairman of General Motors who was responsible for the EV-1 project before it was cancelled, called the E-flex concept "A home run. I've always felt electric propulsion was the endgame. I'm very confident this vehicle is going to be produced."
Bob Lutz, the President of GM. "The engineering development of the car itself is 18 months from being completed. The batteries are about 18 months behind the rest of the car."
Jon Lauckner, the GM vice president. "This program is not a public-relations ploy. We are dead serious about taking this technology into high-volume production."
Tony Posawatz, the vehicle line director. "The vehicle on display at the auto show is a concept car, but GM is intent on developing a production version."
We spoke with a bevy of GM Corporate leaders, engineers and marketing employees manning the GM show floor and the word on the carpet was that this concept (or at least its underlying E-Flex platform) is a “Go”!
While leaving the show on Day 2, we ran into Chelsea and Bob Sexton of “Who Killed the Electric Car”. A short conversation ensued about the Chevrolet Volt. The multiple inside sources they had spoken with the previous 24 hours also declared the “E-Flex” project was a go.
There were other inside players besides top management who mentioned the underlying energy was indeed real and not just a smoke screen, and thus we also believe this concept will become a streetable automobile in similar form to that shown in the not too distant future.
What about the Li-Ion batteries? We had discussions with employees from both JCI-SAFT and A123Systems about the current state of the Li-Ion cel’s and pack technologies supplied to GM for internal testing. From both courts, they both said there was no known issue in meeting any of the specs needed for the “E-Flex” platform. The large JCI-SAFT and A123Systems Li-Ion packs currently in GM PHEVs have performed magnificently to date although we did not receive independent verification of those statements. We understand the hesitation from the heads of the major automobile manufacturers with regards to Li-Ion longevity, supply and quality control, but from the discussions and testing that have been completed so far, we can think of no other reason (other then negotiated cost) why the Li-Ion packs of appropriate size and quality would not be ready for PHEV install well before a possible 2010 model year release. Expect to see the 15 + kWh packs for less than $500/kWh and in quantity to meet any demand that may arise in the near term. This may seem like a huge expense and it is but with Cel costs falling month by month, it is only a matter of time before a large enough Li-Ion PHEV pack is not only cost effective but also affordable for a mass market offering GM is currently pursuing.
The Chevrolet Volt’s “E-Flex” platform. Currently, the E-Flex could house something similar to a mass produced Cobalt body, as that is where the Volt’s base platform arose. The Chevrolet Cobalt is not the most desirable vehicle as seen by its year over year sales numbers but with GM following through with exciting interiors, exteriors and acceptable performance and handling characteristics (see the new Chevrolet Malibu or Cadillac CTS as examples), Tony Posawatz and his team appear unwilling to settle for mediocrity for the first major PHEV release seen anywhere. In other words, it will not be an unfashionable nor undesirable automobile. We can only hope the bean counters do not get in the way and ruin what could be the first of many ground breaking automobiles from GM in the not too distant future …
Who else? If not by GM, Ford, DCX, Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi or some yet unknown small company will produce a high quality PHEV because it makes too much sense given all the problems it can solve in one fell swoop. Price is still a problem but even that will be overcome. Anyone who has their hands in Fuel Cel R&D can make an “E-Flex” like platform under their own brand, thus competition is yet another reason why we believe GM will follow through. GM does not have enough $’s in the bank to sustain continuing losses seen this past year and the Chevrolet “Volt” could be the vehicle which helps GM win back the current non-domestic automobile purchaser with an exciting, high quality automobile at a price most would deem reasonable given its capabilities.
Will GM follow through? We know of GM PHEV-capable - DualMode equipped SUV’s w/ 7 kWh Li-Ion packs already on the road. Because DualMode is scalable to any size and format, why not just expand on a parallel designed - plug-in capable - DualMode in any one of GM’s current platforms? Toyota is heading in that direction with HSD or one of its future variants being offered in more of its standard vehicles each and every year. Ford is planning to follow in Toyota’s footsteps with a Ford Fusion variant of the FEH HEV platform late next year as well. We believe DualMode is the Chevrolet Volt’s “E-Flex” platform biggest competitor at this time. From the same company mind you, but with the possibility of similar performance characteristics. GM will soon have to make up its mind whether to follow through with yet a second hybrid platform being the series-hybrid Volt when the parallel-hybrid DualMode solution may perform as well with less cash outlay. This question has yet to be answered but it is an interesting one from our perspective.
Your Vote. And like most mass media outlets in today’s 24/7 advertising world, there is a poll. Feel free to offer your vote either yes or no on the following 2 questions:Would you like to see GM build the Chevrolet Volt?
If GM builds the Chevrolet Volt, would you consider buying one?Vote here. (http://www.gmsurveys2.com/se.ashx?s=7C7FD94F76D8CE27)
Our hopes … Ok GM, it's game time. It is late in the fourth and the 2-minute warning has sounded. You are 6 points behind and its time to take the ball into the end zone. We have been waiting for far too long for an automobile from GM with both pizzazz and even the slightest hint of environmental credentials worth considering. The Volt and its underlying “E-Flex” platform have our undivided attention. If you fail to produce, there won’t be a rock on earth to hide under this time around. I also know of a Toyota Prius III w/ PHEV capability that will receive my earnings in the not to distant future if you fail to produce. If you prevail, you will have converted hundreds of thousands if not millions of us who will line up with checks in hand.
Here is my offer. I will personally write and deliver a certified check for $33,000 to Bob Lutz for a loaded Pontiac Solstice with the perfected E-Flex/Chevrolet Volt platform and its advertised capabilities underneath. You tell me where and when and I will deliver that check to you in person post haste.
http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/548/Pontiac_Solstice_Front.jpghttp://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/548/Pontiac_Solstice.jpg
Anybody want a 2010 Pontiac Solstice w/ a 40 mile PHEV capability?
Conclusion. Ultimately it is the economics. Replacing gasoline with electricity in an affordable automobile will drive demand for a PHEV like the Chevrolet “Volt” to obscene levels in short order. The cost to drive an automobile like the Volt a distance of 40 miles on electricity is less than $1 in many areas of the country vs. the same distance from a single gallon of gasoline at more then twice the price. PHEVs are our best opportunity for energy independence and at the same time reducing our CO2 and smog-forming emissions drastically. As the electric supply becomes greener, the environmental impact of our daily drive is lessened day after day, week after week, month after month and year after year.
The choice is clear: Build it and we will come.
Part I - Chevrolet “VOLT” introductions. (http://www.cleanmpg.com/forums/in-the-news/t-detroit-auto-show-2007-chevrolet-volt-shocks-the-industry-3262.html)
Part II - Chevrolet “VOLT” specifications. (http://www.cleanmpg.com/forums/in-the-news/t-detroit-auto-show-2007-chevrolet-volt-shocks-the-industry-part-ii-3275.html)
Tarabell, thank you for your assistance.