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EPA tightens testing criteria; ratings could drop 30 percent on some cars. (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16157238/)

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/2006_Toyota_Prius-II.jpgAP - Dec. 11, 2006

Toyota Prius II - Soon to be EPA rated at just 45/40 city/highway?

WASHINGTON - Car buyers will face a new form of sticker shock when they browse dealer lots next year: Mileage estimates will be down, reflecting the way people actually drive.

The Environmental Protection Agency Monday issued new testing procedures that will cause fuel economy estimates on the stickers of new vehicles to drop an average of 12 percent for city driving on most 2008 model year vehicles and 8 percent for highway driving.

Highly fuel-efficient vehicles are expected to see the largest slide, with ratings for city driving dropping by as much as 30 percent and highway estimates falling 25 percent from current levels.

Mileage estimates for gas-electric hybrids probably will be 20 to 30 percent lower for city driving and 10 to 20 percent lower on the highway, the agency said.

The changes respond to consumer complaints that fuel economy estimates are frequently less than advertised. EPA’s new system will take into account data from vehicle tests designed to more accurately assess high-speed driving, rapid acceleration, the use of air conditioning and driving in cold temperatures.

“EPA’s new fuel economy sticker ensures American motorists won’t be stuck with higher-than-anticipated charges at the pump,” EPA Administrator Stephen L. Johnson said in a statement.

The agency said no test can precisely predict the fuel economy of a vehicle because driving behaviors and conditions vary. But the test methods will help bring the estimates on the window stickers closer to what drivers achieve on the road.

Stickers also will be upgraded to include fuel cost information, a graphic for comparing the fuel economy of different vehicles and a Web site address for more information.

Test results will not be used to determine whether automakers comply with laws requiring the U.S. fleet to have an average fuel economy of 27.5 miles per gallon for cars and 21 mpg for sport utility vehicles, pickup trucks and vans.

Those requirements are found in the Corporate Average Fuel Economy program, which is run by the Transportation Department and has separate regulations to determine fuel economy.

Russell Long of Bluewater Network, a San Francisco-based environmental group that sought the changes, said the new testing procedures would help motorists save money and reduce pollution.

But Long said the “new numbers will expose how far short American passenger vehicles are from the 27.5 mpg that Congress intended them to achieve over 30 years ago.”

Consumers have long complained that their vehicle’s fuel economy is often much less than the estimates on the sticker, and Congress mandated the changes in its energy bill in 2005.

EPA’s test methods were last revised in 1984. The rules issued Monday were proposed in January and implemented after public comment.

For the first time the agency will require labeling of medium-duty vehicles, which weigh between 8,500 and 10,000 pounds, including SUVs and vans. Automakers will be required to post the labels on the vehicles beginning with the 2011 model year.

Toyota and Ford said they did not have revised fuel economy estimates for 2008 models of their hybrid vehicles. The top-selling Toyota Prius reports an EPA estimate of 60 mpg in the city and 51 mpg on the highway while the Ford Escape hybrid, the first hybrid SUV on the market, gets an estimated 36 mpg in the city and 31 mpg on the highway.

Auto industry officials noted that mileage estimates differ depending on vehicle speeds, quick stops and starts, routine maintenance and whether the vehicle is hauling cargo in the trunk.

“Even with the new labels, mileage will vary,” said Charles Territo, a spokesman for the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers. The trade group released a new Web site detailing the changes dubbed mileagewillvary.com (http://www.mileagewillvary.com/).

The industry group said 2007 will be a transition year for the labels, with some of the new estimates appearing on dealer lots in the next few months. Consumers should compare the mileage estimates on 2007 models to other 2007 vehicles and 2008 vehicles to other models from that year, they said.

“Consumers deserve the government’s best efforts when it comes to compiling the information they see on the label of new vehicles,” said Robert L. Darbelnet, president of the industry group. “That has not been the case, and EPA is moving to correct the situation.”

LOL, not the way I'd want to hit expert or elite or whatever the upper brackets are, but I'll take it.

Lower claims is good, IMHO. While it's sad to see them drop, it'll make the buyer happier with vehicles that they can really blow away the MPGs with. Hopefully!

OK so here is the question. There is no real FE difference between a 2004 and 2008 Prius. But I need 55.5 vs 42.5 ave for the 08 to be considered a hypermiler. Just about any 2008 vehicle will meet EPA estimates so the term "Hypermiler" will become meaningless.

We're going to have to adjust the benchmarks or something. Didn't we have a thread where suggestions were made, or do I just need more coffee?

Hi Dan:

___Here you go: The road to more accurate mileage. (http://www.cleanmpg.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2787)

___I am still not sure what we are going to do but we may have to bump up the Hypermiler/Expert/Elite thresholds massively for the 08’s and beyond while leaving the 07’s and prior as is. The % offset between pre 07 and post will probably be up to me and I would look forward to any and all commentary wrt to the change as I asked previously. As an example, the 08 Accord will more then likely receive a combined 24 mpg per the EPA vs. 29 today and that places my own at > 200% of the new EPA ratings if they are in fact going to be that low? It would be a boon for most of us but in reality, nothing changed but a status rank for some if we were to use the new EPA ratings vs. the old ones. The EPA change will most certainly help the rankings of the Hybrids at all levels but trying to receive the new test data from the discontinued Insight, HCH-I, Prius I, or even a car like your older VX could be an extremely daunting task. Another example would be the 06 Insight. While running A/C or in the cold temp section, it will never see 60/66 under the current schedule and will more then likely be dropped back into the 45 - 50 mpg area. Think about that car in particular as we head into the new era of EPA city/highway schedules.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

Wayne--

Why not monitor the change in EPA-rated FE for all models that carry over unchanged from 07 to 08, and then add some sort of average of those combined changes to the rankings?

So, let's use your Accord example of 24 in 08 vs. 29 in 07. That's a 17.3 percent decline. Bump up the status thresholds by 17.3 percent and you've corrected for the new "easier" EPA figures.

You could do it this way for classes of vehicles (hybrids, diesels, gas, EV, etc) so everyone is equal. Of course, someone will probably advocate some sort of FE average weighted by overall fleet composition or something that will make your life unbearable. And it still doesn't answer the older model question -- guess you'll have to get the test cycle parameters from EPA and solicit contributions for dyno time... --RN

Hi HCHCIN:

___I am of course taking all suggestions and this is one of the reasons I added two stories of the same issue last night.

___The hard part is if we begin to add offsets to older models (07 and prior anything) or newer (08 forward), the general public will not know what the heck we are doing vs. the published EPA data both Pre and Post 08. This is where I want to be very careful because our sigs are representative of our driving vs. a set of “pre-established government guidelines”. By adding in a CleanMPG offset to either the new or old data sets, our sigs now represent our driving vs. the offset as I fabricate with the help of this forums membership. I hate being the one responsible for something of this sort simply because our sigs will include fabrications of my own designs and that may look deceitful at best from an outsider’s perspective.

___Any thoughts wrt this conundrum we are faced with? We can add a small Pre 08/post 08 verbiage in the sig but it will certainly not help matters for the current hybrid owners vs. the future ones driving the same vehicle with non-equivalent EPA ratings? I am thinking along the lines of changing my definition of 0%, 25% and 50% above the current EPA for Hypermiler/Expert/Elite for the 08 drivers as that number stays within our small community but the sig will still show the 3 status’ for everybody. You may have alluded to this already?

___I did not explain the above very well. A current 04 - 07 Prius II driver needs to achieve 55.5 mpg (EPA combined) to be considered a hypermiler. Let us say the new EPA standards rate the 08 Prius II’s at 44 mpg combined. Instead of becoming a hypermiler at 44 mpg, the 08 driver has to reach 125% of the 08 and forward EPA combined to meet my own definition of a hypermiler? These offsets will be based on the EPA data sets but will only affect Hypermiler status, not % of EPA combined as shown in our sigs. The 08 Prius driver at 54 mpg’s will show he is achieving 124% of the new 08 forward EPA combined of 44 mpg but will not be a hypermiler (per CleanMPG criteria) until he surpasses 125% (55 mpg) of this new 08 EPA combined. I will keep the status to an even 25% increment of whatever the new rating is but at least the sig will show % of the actual current EPA estimates when a sig is viewed from wherever. I am leaning towards this type off offset as it maintains the current and future EPA data sets intact in the sig (% of EPA combined) and gives Hypemiler/Expert/Elite status to those that reach 125, 150 and 175% of the 08 forward EPA test data depending on how hard the Prius II, HCH-II, FEH (I cannot wait to see how the 08 FEH fares vs. the last gen 05 - 07 anyway ;)), and TCH get hit as well as how the non-hybrid Civic, Accord, Corolla and Camry perform in the new tests also.

___We will have to have a lot more discussion about this before Tom recodes the DBase for the 08 MY stats and I begin playing with the Hypermiler lists but at least we can attempt to keep some level of parity to match the pre 08 vehicles with the 08’s going forward? I hope Tom will chime in with his thoughts as well given he has a lot of work to do in separating the two different sets of stats within the same DBase.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

Of course, the bright side of the new EPA method is that it will also show just how wasteful monster-SUVs can be. For example, I pretty much laugh out loud when I see the Hummer commercial that claims that the civilian-grade battle tank gets 20 MPG. In reality, it probably gets between 4-8 MPG. The new EPA rules will expose the true mileage.

Wayne--

I think I get the gist of your conundrum -- after '08 at least one group will find themselves not happy with the FE status they've achieved. The only easy way I can think of to do away with this is to couch the status in absolute terms.

I'm sort of thinking out loud here, but what I came up with is something like this:

Every year we find the average fuel economy for the U.S. fleet as a whole, or failing that use the CAFE standard. For 2005 that's something like 25.2 according to a document I found at NHTSA. Then you frame the statuses in terms of percentage of US average FE. So, if you drive a Prius and get 55 mpg, you're at 218% of US FE. Maybe everyone who meets or exceeds 200% gets one status, 300% another, and so on. This takes EPA and its shifting rules out of the equation.

I realize that with non-hybrid cars, such as your Ranger, a number of current hypermilers would not be physically able to reach a higher status (unless you segment by class of vehicle as I proposed in my earlier post).

The flipside is that everyone will be able to see at a glance what they're doing for the US average. If I drive a Prius right now and I get 55.5 and earn Hypermiler status, that's nice. If I instead look at the signature under this new system and I see I'm getting 220% of the average US driver and along the way I earn Hypermiler status for exceeding 200% of the average -- well, maybe that carries some extra meaning?

Just throwing out ideas right now -- let me know what you think. --RN

When people see the 1mpg difference between the HCH II and the much more expensive Prius could this sway more people into the HCH? Real world seems to show that HCH II drivers tend to get pretty close to EPA.

On second thought, maybe that doesn't work -- it doesn't recognize the achievement the same as the current system. For instance, right now at 48.5 in your Accord, you're achieving something remarkable -- 67% over EPA. I can hop into a Prius and knock out 48.5 with the AC on and no extra effort. So, perhaps there is no absolute method here. It seems like in order to recognize the achievement, you have to do it on a model-specific basis.

You could always make it up to the pre-'08 owners to decide on their own. If they want, they can continue as they've always done, and if they want, they can adjust for the new lowered EPA MPG's for their model. That way, if they want to stay as they were, they can. If they wish to reflect their new status, they can. Since it's not a competition anyway, it'll be whatever the individual wants their vehicle to reflect. No one is changing their MPGs anyway, just the % above or below the figure anyway. If someone wants to reflect their old guidelines because that's what they're used to, they can. If someone else, with the same model hybrid (or vehicle) wants to show new people what they can get in the new EPA rules, they can.

You could come up with maybe a different color background to signify in the signature image whether it's new or old EPA MPGs, and go from there.

Just throwing that out there.

Hi HCHCIN:

___Right now, Tom codes for the individual model and I cull the list in the same fashion. It takes some time but it works. As far as the % above the std. automobile is concerned, that throws away all the hard work that those with non-hybrids or low FE hybrids achieve. Hey, I qualify on 2 of 3 counts :) The Insight would be monstrous at something like 450% above the average automobiles FE in the US today which loses meaning vs. the Prius’ around 250%, the HCH-I’s around 275% and the FEH’s at 150%. This provides an interesting idea for the DBase as a whole however as we could include a sort column with the % above the average FE in its own column. We actually use the average US FE number traveling so many miles and compare that to the membership as a whole receiving their average to come up with the gallons of fuel saved logo on the home page.

___Rich, we do not know what an 07 FEH will do in the 08 spec’ed tests because the 08 with the second gen drivetrain will be the one to sport the sticker. We may never find out about the HCH-I’s, Insight’s, and/or anything that isn’t currently available either? I have seen some Prius guys posting a number of 42 mpg from the new tests IIRC but I do not know if this is factual or not yet? Sigs are a competition amongst ourselves and of course I would switch over to the new specs if it drops the 08 Accord to 24 or thereabouts. 202% looks a lot better then 167 even though nothing has changed wrt Elite status :D I think the 08 and beyond hybrid and non-hybrid drivers are going to like the change in either case.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

Hi All:

___And some more info directly from the EPA.

EPA Makes Fuel Economy Estimates Stick.

EPA - John Millett - Dec. 11, 2006

Washington, D.C. - To provide American consumers with improved information when shopping for cars and trucks, EPA is issuing new methods to determine the miles per gallon (MPG) estimates that appear on new vehicle window stickers. The new standards will take effect for model year 2008 vehicles, which may be available for sale as soon as next month.

"EPA's new fuel economy sticker ensures American motorists won't be stuck with higher than anticipated charges at the pump," said EPA Administrator Stephen L. Johnson. "Consumers can get more bang for their buck by considering fuel use while shopping for cars and trucks – saving money on refueling costs while helping protect our environment."

EPA's new methods bring MPG estimates closer to consumers' actual fuel use, by including factors such as high speeds, aggressive accelerations, air conditioning use and driving in cold temperatures. Model year 2008 vehicles will be the first to receive the new MPG estimates. Currently, EPA relies on data from two laboratory tests to determine the city and highway fuel economy estimates. The test methods for calculating these estimates were last revised in 1984.

To more clearly convey fuel economy information to consumers, EPA is also enhancing the design and content of the window sticker. The new label will allow consumers to make more informed decisions when comparing the fuel economy of new vehicles. EPA will continue to work with the auto industry, dealers, and other stakeholders, such as the American Automobile Association (AAA), to further educate drivers about all the changes included in the final rule.

In addition to better fuel economy estimates, for the first time, EPA will be requiring fuel economy labeling of medium-duty vehicles, which are between 8,500 and 10,000 lbs., including large sport-utility vehicles and vans. Manufacturers will be required to post fuel economy labels on these vehicles beginning with the 2011 model year.___The Hummers, ¾ and 1-ton GM, Ford, and DCX P/U’s and SUV’s are finally going to be labeled as the gas sucking pigs that they are.

___I can imagine one of the monsters with a 9 mpg combined rating driving 12,000 miles per year at $2.60/gallon showing an annual fuel cost of $3,466 per year in fuel costs alone. That should wake some of these guys up before doing something stupid hopefully?

___Good Luck

___Wayne

My first thought was how many models will be all new for 2008? Probably not many. The typical cycle is 4 to 5 years. From year to year, there tend to be cosmetic changes, but I have rarely seen an EPA estimate change. So in many cases, the 2008 EPA estimate could be applied to cars of the same model and same generation. For previous generations it would be more difficult. In that case I would recommend a study of vehicles be performed to determine the average decrease in FE from 07 to 08 and then apply it the the pre 2008 estimates to get an equivalent 2008 estimate. If you break cars into classes such as hybrids, compact, small, mid sized, large, SUV and sport, you would probably see a consistent % drop within each group. I would volunteer to do some number crunching if this were to be deemed the optimal solution.

I just think that having more than one standard would be very confusing. Choosing the new standard would be more appropriate because we would be no longer comparing our efforts to a so called "unachievable" standard, we would be comparing them to what the rest of the country is actually achieving.

Choosing the new standard would be more appropriate because we would be no longer comparing our efforts to a so called "unachievable" standard, we would be comparing them to what the rest of the country is actually achieving.

:D Yeah, but that's what I use fueleconomy.gov and GreenHybrid for.

The only question is just how much of a compromise is it, since at least with the old EPA standards, we knew what the variables were, even if we didn't drive in them. With the new standards designed to meet the "now normal" driver, now we have to look and say, "Well, I should be getting better then EPA, because I don't do this, or this. But I do this more, so what's it going to do?"

Eh, at any rate, I guess we'll find out, won't we?