xcel
11-13-2006, 05:54 PM
Switch to lithium may lower costs. (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061112/BUSINESS/611120551/1003)
Robert Schoenberger - The Courier-Journal - Nov. 12, 2006
http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/2007_TCH_NiMH_battery_pack.jpgAlthough sales are booming, don't expect prices for hybrid cars and sport utility vehicles to drop any time soon.
During a visit to the company's plant in Georgetown, Ky., last month, Toyota Motor Co. Executive Engineer Dave Hermance said it has pushed down the prices on all major hybrid components by raising production volumes, but "we're reaching the end of those efficiencies."
And those cost cuts have done little more than offset skyrocketing prices for hybrid batteries.
Most gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles on the road use nickel-based batteries.
Nickel is also used in making stainless steel, and the popularity of that metal in appliances and industrial equipment has grown steadily.
"With stainless-steel demand still booming globally … the market is stretched to the absolute limit," said analyst Jim Lennon of Macquarie Bank in London. "The longer-term outlook for nickel looks increasingly better."
Hermance said the cost cutting on other hybrid components, such as drive motors and electronics, have helped keep production costs stable. But they haven't been steadily falling, as Toyota had hoped.
"It's certainly inspiring us to change the chemistry" of hybrid batteries, he said.
The most likely candidate to replace nickel is lithium.
Lithium-ion batteries have replaced nickel batteries in cell phones, small electronic devices and many cordless power tools, but Hermance thinks it will take about three years to make them viable for hybrid vehicles.
Lithium-based batteries cost a little bit more than nickel-based ones now, but higher production volumes should drive prices down, he said.
"There's a path to get those costs down" with lithium, Hermance said.
An added benefit is that lithium can store more electricity with less battery than nickel. That could mean cutting vehicle weight, further improving trunk space and fuel economy, or having higher-capacity batteries.
Higher-capacity batteries could lead to plug-in hybrids -- vehicles with cords that could be plugged into wall sockets to more fully charge batteries overnight.
Prototype plug-in hybrids have more energy to burn and can run longer without using gasoline. That could allow some commutes to be done without using gasoline at all.
Hermance said the first lithium-battery-powered hybrid should be on the road within three years. He expects all hybrids to be lithium-based within 10 years.
"Plug-ins will fall somewhere between there," Hermance said, adding that he expects those vehicles to be marketable within five years.
Robert Schoenberger - The Courier-Journal - Nov. 12, 2006
http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/2007_TCH_NiMH_battery_pack.jpgAlthough sales are booming, don't expect prices for hybrid cars and sport utility vehicles to drop any time soon.
During a visit to the company's plant in Georgetown, Ky., last month, Toyota Motor Co. Executive Engineer Dave Hermance said it has pushed down the prices on all major hybrid components by raising production volumes, but "we're reaching the end of those efficiencies."
And those cost cuts have done little more than offset skyrocketing prices for hybrid batteries.
Most gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles on the road use nickel-based batteries.
Nickel is also used in making stainless steel, and the popularity of that metal in appliances and industrial equipment has grown steadily.
"With stainless-steel demand still booming globally … the market is stretched to the absolute limit," said analyst Jim Lennon of Macquarie Bank in London. "The longer-term outlook for nickel looks increasingly better."
Hermance said the cost cutting on other hybrid components, such as drive motors and electronics, have helped keep production costs stable. But they haven't been steadily falling, as Toyota had hoped.
"It's certainly inspiring us to change the chemistry" of hybrid batteries, he said.
The most likely candidate to replace nickel is lithium.
Lithium-ion batteries have replaced nickel batteries in cell phones, small electronic devices and many cordless power tools, but Hermance thinks it will take about three years to make them viable for hybrid vehicles.
Lithium-based batteries cost a little bit more than nickel-based ones now, but higher production volumes should drive prices down, he said.
"There's a path to get those costs down" with lithium, Hermance said.
An added benefit is that lithium can store more electricity with less battery than nickel. That could mean cutting vehicle weight, further improving trunk space and fuel economy, or having higher-capacity batteries.
Higher-capacity batteries could lead to plug-in hybrids -- vehicles with cords that could be plugged into wall sockets to more fully charge batteries overnight.
Prototype plug-in hybrids have more energy to burn and can run longer without using gasoline. That could allow some commutes to be done without using gasoline at all.
Hermance said the first lithium-battery-powered hybrid should be on the road within three years. He expects all hybrids to be lithium-based within 10 years.
"Plug-ins will fall somewhere between there," Hermance said, adding that he expects those vehicles to be marketable within five years.