Right Lane Cruiser
05-21-2009, 08:21 AM
http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/2/AmericanFlag.jpg "Interestingly, we may never get to 100 percent hybridization, because by then the massive switch to E.V.s may be ready to happen and feasible from a cost standpoint." (http://www.reuters.com/article/bigMoney/idUS165173704020090520)
http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/2009_Mitsubishi_iMIEV.jpgMatthew DeBord - Reuters (http://www.reuters.com) - May 20, 2009
Contrary to Jim's view, I think we should electrify everything before we run out of oil. --Ed.
As promised, Jim Motavalli of the New York Times' Wheels blog and I engaged in spirited discussion today about the future of electric vehicles. Jim has posted the debate at Mother Nature Network, where he regularly blogs about environmental issues. (His full bio is below.)
Tuesday's news about raising national fuel-economy standards provided unexpected context for our discussion. In order for automakers to meet the new standards across their fleets, they may have to accelerate E.V., or electric vehicle, development. Daimler is already thinking this way, by taking a stake in E.V. startup Tesla Motors. However, Jim is more pro-E.V. than I am. I'm not exactly anti-E.V., but I think our timetable for adding more E.V.s to the transportation grid should be more long-term. Anyway, let the discussion begin!
As promised, Jim Motavalli of the New York Times' Wheels blog and I engaged in spirited discussion today about the future of electric vehicles. Jim has posted the debate at Mother Nature Network, where he regularly blogs about environmental issues. (His full bio is below.)
Tuesday's news about raising national fuel-economy standards provided unexpected context for our discussion. In order for automakers to meet the new standards across their fleets, they may have to accelerate E.V., or electric vehicle, development. Daimler is already thinking this way, by taking a stake in E.V. startup Tesla Motors. However, Jim is more pro-E.V. than I am. I'm not exactly anti-E.V., but I think our timetable for adding more E.V.s to the transportation grid should be more long-term. Anyway, let the discussion begin!
Jim Motavalli: I think President Obama’s announcement of tough new fuel economy standards for cars and trucks—a fleet average of 35.5 mpg by 2016—is a turning point for the auto industry. The age of big SUVs is over, and the future belongs to electric vehicles (E.V.s). Although hydrogen cars (with electric drive) may be a long-term solution, battery E.V.s are virtually the only currently available “zero-emission” option. I don’t minimize the challenges—range, cost—but I still see 20 percent (and in a best-case scenario, 30 percent) penetration by plug-in hybrids and pure battery E.V.s by 2020. Eventually, I see full electrification of the auto fleet.
Matthew DeBord: I agree that the new fuel-economy standards, coupled with ongoing creative destruction in Detroit, signal a turning point for the auto industry. However, I don't think we're going to see as much market penetration by plug-in hybrids and E.V.s. Price is a major issue. For E.V.s, it will take more than 12 years for truly affordable pure-battery E.V.s to make up one-fifth of the market. We'll get there, but I see the tipping point as sometime in the middle of century. Conveniently, I think this is also when peak oil will become an urgent problem. I'd like to: I think President Obama’s announcement of tough new fuel economy standards for cars and trucks—a fleet average of 35.5 mpg by 2016—is a turning point for the auto industry. The age of big SUVs is over, and the future belongs to electric vehicles (E.V.s). Although hydrogen cars (with electric drive) may be a long-term solution, battery E.V.s are virtually the only currently available “zero-emission” option. I don’t minimize the challenges—range, cost—but I still see 20 percent (and in a best-case scenario, 30 percent) penetration by plug-in hybrids and pure battery E.V.s by 2020. Eventually, I see full electrification of the auto fleet.
Matthew DeBord: I agree that the new fuel-economy standards, coupled with ongoing creative destruction in Detroit, signal a turning point for the auto industry. However, I don't think we're going to see as much market penetration by plug-in hybrids and E.V.s. Price is a major issue. For E.V.s, it will take more than 12 years for truly affordable pure-battery E.V.s to make up one-fifth of the market. We'll get there, but I see the tipping point as sometime in the middle of century. Conveniently, I think this is also when peak oil will become an urgent problem. I'd like to... http://www.reuters.com/article/bigMoney/idUS165173704020090520
http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/2009_Mitsubishi_iMIEV.jpgMatthew DeBord - Reuters (http://www.reuters.com) - May 20, 2009
Contrary to Jim's view, I think we should electrify everything before we run out of oil. --Ed.
As promised, Jim Motavalli of the New York Times' Wheels blog and I engaged in spirited discussion today about the future of electric vehicles. Jim has posted the debate at Mother Nature Network, where he regularly blogs about environmental issues. (His full bio is below.)
Tuesday's news about raising national fuel-economy standards provided unexpected context for our discussion. In order for automakers to meet the new standards across their fleets, they may have to accelerate E.V., or electric vehicle, development. Daimler is already thinking this way, by taking a stake in E.V. startup Tesla Motors. However, Jim is more pro-E.V. than I am. I'm not exactly anti-E.V., but I think our timetable for adding more E.V.s to the transportation grid should be more long-term. Anyway, let the discussion begin!
As promised, Jim Motavalli of the New York Times' Wheels blog and I engaged in spirited discussion today about the future of electric vehicles. Jim has posted the debate at Mother Nature Network, where he regularly blogs about environmental issues. (His full bio is below.)
Tuesday's news about raising national fuel-economy standards provided unexpected context for our discussion. In order for automakers to meet the new standards across their fleets, they may have to accelerate E.V., or electric vehicle, development. Daimler is already thinking this way, by taking a stake in E.V. startup Tesla Motors. However, Jim is more pro-E.V. than I am. I'm not exactly anti-E.V., but I think our timetable for adding more E.V.s to the transportation grid should be more long-term. Anyway, let the discussion begin!
Jim Motavalli: I think President Obama’s announcement of tough new fuel economy standards for cars and trucks—a fleet average of 35.5 mpg by 2016—is a turning point for the auto industry. The age of big SUVs is over, and the future belongs to electric vehicles (E.V.s). Although hydrogen cars (with electric drive) may be a long-term solution, battery E.V.s are virtually the only currently available “zero-emission” option. I don’t minimize the challenges—range, cost—but I still see 20 percent (and in a best-case scenario, 30 percent) penetration by plug-in hybrids and pure battery E.V.s by 2020. Eventually, I see full electrification of the auto fleet.
Matthew DeBord: I agree that the new fuel-economy standards, coupled with ongoing creative destruction in Detroit, signal a turning point for the auto industry. However, I don't think we're going to see as much market penetration by plug-in hybrids and E.V.s. Price is a major issue. For E.V.s, it will take more than 12 years for truly affordable pure-battery E.V.s to make up one-fifth of the market. We'll get there, but I see the tipping point as sometime in the middle of century. Conveniently, I think this is also when peak oil will become an urgent problem. I'd like to: I think President Obama’s announcement of tough new fuel economy standards for cars and trucks—a fleet average of 35.5 mpg by 2016—is a turning point for the auto industry. The age of big SUVs is over, and the future belongs to electric vehicles (E.V.s). Although hydrogen cars (with electric drive) may be a long-term solution, battery E.V.s are virtually the only currently available “zero-emission” option. I don’t minimize the challenges—range, cost—but I still see 20 percent (and in a best-case scenario, 30 percent) penetration by plug-in hybrids and pure battery E.V.s by 2020. Eventually, I see full electrification of the auto fleet.
Matthew DeBord: I agree that the new fuel-economy standards, coupled with ongoing creative destruction in Detroit, signal a turning point for the auto industry. However, I don't think we're going to see as much market penetration by plug-in hybrids and E.V.s. Price is a major issue. For E.V.s, it will take more than 12 years for truly affordable pure-battery E.V.s to make up one-fifth of the market. We'll get there, but I see the tipping point as sometime in the middle of century. Conveniently, I think this is also when peak oil will become an urgent problem. I'd like to... http://www.reuters.com/article/bigMoney/idUS165173704020090520