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xcel
10-27-2008, 09:54 AM
Tokyo's Nikkei Hits 26-Year Low

"Japanese companies are so dependent on demand from overseas. The global financial crisis and Japan's economy are locked in a downward spiral." (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122510213505171531.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/Nikkei_26-year_low.jpgHiroko Tabuchi - WSJ - Oct. 27, 2008

Japanese investors in shock considering the Nikkei close.

The Nikkei is off 81% from its all time high set way back in 1989. This looks like yet another bad day for US markets :( -- Ed.

TOKYO – Tokyo's Nikkei 225 Stock Average slumped 6.4% to a 26-year low on Monday as nervous investors sold shares of banks and exporters on fresh concerns over the fallout from the U.S. financial crisis and an ever-strengthening yen.

The Nikkei lost 486.18 points to 7162.90, its lowest level since October 1982, when Ronald Reagan was U.S. president and Japan was on the eve of an export-led boom that culminated in the burst of its stock-and-real-estate bubble in the early 1990s.

"It's a crisis. It's a psychological shock to think we're back to where we were almost thirty years ago" said Hisashi Takeda, a real-estate worker in central Tokyo.

Fanned by booming exports and rising property prices, the Nikkei surged from the early 1980s to as high as 38915.87 on December 29, 1989. But the bursting of the bubble sent the index to under 20000 in less than nine months. Japan's economy then entered a period of stagnation, with the Nikkei bottoming out at 7603.76 in April 2003 before rebounding to the 18000 level in 2007. On Monday, the Nikkei fell below that post-bubble low for the first time…

Overseas markets accounted for a record 45% of overall sales of Japanese manufacturers in the year through March 2008, according to a recent study by Nikkei… http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122510213505171531.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

U.S. stocks are headed for yet another sharply lower open Monday as stock markets tumbled further around the world on worries about the health of the global economy. U.S. stock futures fell but came well off their worst levels. Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 145, or 1.8 percent, to 8,116, after being down more than 200.

Standard & Poor's 500 index futures fell 18.70, or 2.16 percent, to 847.30, while Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 21.50, or 1.8 percent, to 1,170.00.

Earthling
10-27-2008, 07:43 PM
I'm seeing a pattern, where the Asian markets have huge sell-offs, the US market tries to hold up, but then selling takes over just before the closing bell.

It's a good time to watch and wait, and keep your powder dry, if you have any powder left!

Harry

ILAveo
10-27-2008, 10:51 PM
I'm seeing a pattern, where the Asian markets have huge sell-offs, the US market tries to hold up, but then selling takes over just before the closing bell.

It's a good time to watch and wait, and keep your powder dry, if you have any powder left!

Harry


I'd say it's about time to start researching stocks if you have any powder left. It's hard to know exactly, but it feels like there are some large investors dragging down the market while unwinding large positions gradually.

My best guess is that a number companies with cash flow issues (e.g. GM, banks) are having to sell large positions in stocks and other marketable securities to raise cash to fund continuing operations.

What I'm wondering about is where did all the petrodollars from the past couple of years go? Are they going to enter the US investment markets or stay overseas?

xcel
10-27-2008, 11:27 PM
Hi Rich:

___I am thinking of the Nikkei. I do not see our currency going anywhere but down vs. the Yen unless the Fed ups Interest rates massively and with the Nikkei at a depression era like low (off 80% from its all time high while the DJIA was off 90% from the top in 29 to the bottom in 32), there is some value just buying the index. Of course the Shanghais Index. Even in a depression here, they will still probably have positive growth as they turn their consumption machine inward. Once the WON detaches from the USD, it is going to appreciate massively! The Euro will probably appreciate given they are controlling their spending and such hopefully better than us but the Euro cannot withstand much more strengthening or they price themselves out of world markets?

___Just a few thoughts bouncing around in my head is all.

___Good Luck

___Wayne



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