View Full Version : 2020 - The Various Roads to 35 MPG
The new CAFE' standards will force everyone to bring results to the table … The real focus should be on what’s available today. (http://www.aiada.org/newsroom/newsDetails.asp?id=57331&cmd=article)
http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/2008_VW_Jetta_SEL_Front.jpgJim Koscs - AIADA - Dec. 10, 2007
2009 Jetta TDI – With great performance and an EPA combined suspected to reach 45 mpg, VW has one of the answers. -- Ed.
Whatever the outcome of pending energy legislation, the call for an industry-wide fuel economy average of 35 mpg by 2020 seems certain. It’s worth taking a look at some of the technology available today that will help carmakers achieve that goal.
“Consumers are open to any technology that will save them money and have a positive impact on the environment,” said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jesse Toprak. “Hybrids will still be the main high-economy technology, but perhaps 10 or 15 years from now, fuel cells could pass hybrids. Diesels will be big, at least in the short term.”
Hybrids in High Gear, But More Education Needed
Hybrids are certainly growing in popularity, with Toyota the clear leader. Calendar-year-to-date hybrid sales for Toyota Motor Sales (including Lexus) totaled 253,466 units through November, an increase of 45 percent over the same period last year. Toyota offers three hybrids under its brand and three from Lexus. The Prius is by far the best selling of the group, heading to 175,000 units for the year to make it more popular than many conventional models.
A consequence of Toyota’s success with hybrids is that the federal tax credit available for the brand’s vehicles expired at the end of last September. “We’ve had some disappointed customers, but we have not seen any decline in hybrid sales,” said Natea Rayner of Toyota. “Savings from fuel costs right now help outweigh the loss of the tax credit,” added Dave Lee, her colleague in the product training department.
A Prius-like hybrid success has thus far eluded Honda, but the company is shifting focus to more affordable, higher-economy hybrid models. It will offer a new gas/electric model in 2009 priced less than the current Civic Hybrid, and the recent CR-Z concept car hints at a possible sporty hybrid model, as well. Mercedes-Benz announced its first hybrid models coming for 2009, an M-Class SUV and an S-Class sedan; both will team a gasoline V6 with an electric powertrain… http://www.aiada.org/newsroom/newsDetails.asp?id=57331&cmd=article
Right Lane Cruiser 12-12-2007, 02:01 AM Good article! I hope there is some chance that Honda will reconsider bringing their diesel to the Civic here in the US...
koreberg 12-12-2007, 03:32 AM My dream would be honda combining a smaller diesel with the hybrid drivetrain and sticking it in an insight type vehicle. I have 2, 2 seaters, whats 1 more.
Just bringing the diesel would be a step in the right direction. I've been disappointed that it is taking so long to bring the TDIs back to the us. Hopefully it will give VW time to do something about quality problems.
Chuck 12-12-2007, 07:33 AM The sooner Detroit gets serious about FE vehicles, the more likely they can keep and expand their market share when gas prices go up to uncomfortable levels.
Anyone remember 1979? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_energy_crisis) Inflation, unemployment, trouble with Iran (just like today), and oil prices out of control. The econoboxes back then were in part are the result of Detroit hanging on to boatcars till the bitter end, then frantically throwing a semi fuel efficent vehicle together.
This weekend, I heard a familiar diesel clatter, but was suprized not to see a truck. It was an early 80's big Mercedes instead. Diesels have come a long way.
HCHCIN 12-12-2007, 07:40 AM Sean--
Maybe I missed some news, but has Honda said they won't be bringing the 2.2 to the US Civic? I read it's coming to the Accord, and I'd like to hope the TSX (since the equip the Euro Accord/TSX with it), but I think I'd be very interested in the 2.2 in a US Civic.
Right Lane Cruiser 12-12-2007, 08:34 AM The only info coming out of Honda is that it is headed for the Accord, but they have indicated no interest in putting diesel into any of their smaller cars. It seems they would rather focus on hybrid drivetrains for those.
That is a real shame because Wayne was able to pull Insight level numbers from the preview vehicle with no compromises at all. A real driver's car with insane FE capability -- a dream come true! And apparently not headed to our shores at all. :ccry:
Chuck 12-12-2007, 08:39 AM The only info coming out of Honda is that it is headed for the Accord, but they have indicated no interest in putting diesel into any of their smaller cars. It seems they would rather focus on hybrid drivetrains for those.
That is a real shame because Wayne was able to pull Insight level numbers from the preview vehicle with no compromises at all. A real driver's car with insane FE capability -- a dream come true! And apparently not headed to our shores at all. :ccry:Sean,
You planted a thought - in the 80's in Dallas I'd see newly purchased Mercedes, Beamers with German license plates - people that had the European market versions...think that might be possible with the European Civic?
Right Lane Cruiser 12-12-2007, 09:03 AM Unfortunately we have the emissions to contend with. I'm almost certain you could get one on the road here somehow (after all, Wayne got one from a company that has a permit for them on the road) but I've no idea what that might cost, or how much it would be to import the car.
I'd still love to have exactly the car Wayne previewed, though! That would be beyond belief SWEET. :eek:
Chuck 12-12-2007, 09:55 AM I was afraid of that - the EPA is tighter on emissions.
Related tangent: the last couple of Houston hypermiler meetings, Mark Smith has stated the E10 mandate in our cities is badly outdated. In the 80's and ethanol mix would make aging clunkers run clean, but that was before cars had much microchip technology in them. Today's cars tune themselves and run much cleaner, eliminating the need for E10 to cut the smog in cities like Houston. Essentially Mark is saying E10 is not saving oil or money in this scheme.
I'm really looking forward to seeing what they do with the CRZ. Sporty look, 2 seater, some power, good mileage, sounds great. I'm gonna need to replace the Paseo eventually, even though I only broke 70,000 miles on it this morning. Not bad for a 10 year old car. :)
sup'd 12-12-2007, 11:09 AM Unfortunately we have the emissions to contend with. I'm almost certain you could get one on the road here somehow (after all, Wayne got one from a company that has a permit for them on the road) but I've no idea what that might cost, or how much it would be to import the car.
I'd still love to have exactly the car Wayne previewed, though! That would be beyond belief SWEET. :eek:
from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grey_import_vehicles#United_States
It is no longer possible to import a non-US vehicle into the United States as a personal import, with some exceptions. In 1998, NHTSA granted vehicles over 25 years of age dispensation from the rules it administers, since these are presumed to be collector vehicles. It is also possible to certify the car though a Registered importer for DOT work and an ICI for EPA work, bringing in a number of cars to spread the cost of type approval and destructive testing. Destructive crash testing is not always needed if the vehicle can be shown to be substantially similar to a model sold in the US. The Smart Fortwo car is imported in this manner. Finally, the Show or Display law allows import of vehicle[s] "of such historical or technological significance that it is in the public interest to show or display it in the United States even though it would be difficult or impossible to bring the vehicle into compliance with the Federal motor vehicle safety standards. This provision is intended to facilitate the importation of a make or model of a vehicle which its manufacturer never certified for sale in the United States." However, this provision still demands compliance with emissions standards.
Right Lane Cruiser 12-12-2007, 11:47 AM Well, that means it is about as hard as I was afraid it was. I figured it might be possible but you could end up adding a third to the cost of the car in the attempt. Not cool when you are talking around $23K just to purchase the thing in the first place. :(
Well, I can continue to hope that Honda sees the light, I suppose. As Wayne keeps lamenting, there is NO reason not to bring this thing to the US with the proper emissions tweaks. The car would sell extremely well and we could have Insight mileage without all the extra (and delicate!) electronic wizardry employed in hybrid vehicles. I'd pick this car over any hybrid on the market in a heartbeat -- the only thing that would offer serious competition is a plug-in series hybrid.
Oh well. Pipe dreams at this point... but hopefully not for that long!!
Kinder 12-12-2007, 12:29 PM Daox said "I'm really looking forward to seeing what they do with the CRZ. Sporty look, 2 seater"
But I seem to recall that the pics of the CR-Z showed a tiny backseat. Which, combined with $3 gas, I would think would help the CR-Z sell at 5x the volume as the Insight did.
Well, my Paseo is technically a 4 seater. But, unless your about 4.5 feet tall your head will bash into the rear windshield over every bump, and knees will be stuck in the back of the seat in front of you. Someone on an electric vehicle conversion site said it best when they said the paseo seats "2 adults comfortably with 2 in agony (http://www.austinev.org/evalbum/090.html)". It gave me good laugh.
In any case, it looks like a cool small car. If it gets good fuel economy it'll be right up my ally. I'm not sure on its specifics, or if there is any yet so we'll have to see. :) I really hope it has a more advanced driveline like the Prius.
sup'd 12-12-2007, 01:36 PM Well, that means it is about as hard as I was afraid it was.
Well if someone had the time, one could start their own ICI (licensed importer/converted for non-compliance cars), build it as a not-for-profit that imports fuel efficient imports and convert them to US standards. With proper grant writing and promoting it as a green initiative, could possibly get the funding to get it started.
Or, organize a group buy through one of the existing ICIs to get the cost down. If they did several of those euro civics at once the cost theoretically should be lower.
___It may be impossible for the average importer to convert an iCDTi to Tier II/Bin5. The manufacturers are spending hundreds of millions to do it and are just now seeing the payoff. Even so, MB has delayed Blutec by 2 years and we are still waiting for Honda and VW. I highly doubt a small importer will be able to do the necessary mods to make this work? That being said, many of the University’s in the Challenge X program using VW 1.9L TDI’s have somehow achieved SULE status but not for a 150,000 mile cycle by any stretch!
http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/2/iCDTi_Manufacturer_Plates.jpg
The Civic iCDTi with its special magic plates.
___Good Luck
___Wayne
sup'd 12-12-2007, 02:18 PM How much of today have I wasted:
http://www.epa.gov/otaq/imports/quiktext.htm#nonusversion
B. (2) Engine not in Vehicle or Chassis
EPA regulates the entire vehicle, not individual parts, for cars, light trucks, and motorcycles. If an engine is not installed, and is to be used in a car, motorcycle, or light truck, it may be imported as an automotive part. No approval or Customs bond is required by EPA.
(sorry for continued off topic posts)
Right Lane Cruiser 12-12-2007, 05:04 PM Sup'd, are you suggesting removing the engine for import, then simply reinstalling it? Doesn't the resulting car on the other side have to be certified in some manner?
This seems an odd sort of loophole if the answer is that it doesn't need certification...
I know that until they were not produced anymore one could get a Brazilian old style Beetle by using an "importer" that basically turned the car into an older vehicle in the eyes of the law. There were 3 at the time I looked (NM, AZ, and TX I think) and what they did was buy old beaters, strip them all the way down to nothing but the center tunnel and support arms, then assemble every part from a newly built beetle from the Brazilian plant onto it. Since the age of the car is legally determined by the VIN, and on those old vehicles the official one was stamped on the tunnel under the back seat, the brand new year 2000 bug was suddenly legally a '67 (for example). This got around all the collision and emissions issues preventing direct sale of those cars in the US.
This sounds like a similar process...
Vooch 12-12-2007, 08:26 PM The diesel Jetta is a pretty big car and will easily get 45 MPG - it is isn't even going to have the smallest diesel engine used in Jettas. The smallest engine (70kw) used in Jettas gets about 15% better MPG = 50+ MPG !.
In Germany, you also get similar engine in the Passat Wagon and Jetta Station Wagon - Imagine getting 50 MPG i a full sized station wagon !
These aren't some slow poke car fitted with tiny engines for the 3rd world. The are cars sold in Germany - for cruising the Autobahn at 160km
WriConsult 12-13-2007, 12:55 AM Sup'd, you might be able to get an engine-less car and a separate engine shipment past customs, but that doesn't mean you'd be able to register it. States have stricter (probably varying) rules about what they'll allow you to register.
About a year ago, after VW TDIs had disappeared from the market, I looked into the possibility of bringing one down from Vancouver, BC, where they are still available. My reading of DMV literature made it sound like I'd be able to register such a car if I could obtain a certificate from the manufacturer that it was built to "North American" (they did not say US, specifically) safety standards.
I took that to mean that it was darn near impossible to import a car from overseas (unless it was virtually identical to a model already sold here), but that bringing in a car from Canada was doable.
Which means that a determined buyer might be able to bring a diesel Smart into the US. Now there is some mpg for you!
Right Lane Cruiser 12-13-2007, 08:02 AM Which means that a determined buyer might be able to bring a diesel Smart into the US. Now there is some mpg for you!
Agreed! With a standard transmission that car would be very difficult to beat!
koreberg 12-13-2007, 11:01 AM I could deal with an insight, because it looks a little similar to my crx, but i've got to draw the line at the smart car. I'm not even sure I'd fit in it.
Chuck 12-13-2007, 11:04 AM I could deal with an insight, because it looks a little similar to my crx, but i've got to draw the line at the smart car. I'm not even sure I'd fit in it.Before I had my 2000 Insight, I had an 86 CRX HF, followed by a 88 CRX HF.
Essentially the Insight is an extreme makover of the CRX HF - a few inches taller, longer, wider, same weight yet with dual airbags, replacing the steel with aluminum, and of course, the 1.5 liter ICE with a hybrid powerplant.
sup'd 12-13-2007, 11:52 AM Sup'd, you might be able to get an engine-less car and a separate engine shipment past customs, but that doesn't mean you'd be able to register it. States have stricter (probably varying) rules about what they'll allow you to register.
I was just looking at it for knowledge sake, I hope that my prius is the last gasoline car that I ever purchase.
To summarize all the reading (plus opinion), it looks like it costs multi-millions of dollars to get a car certified for US, which is why we don't see Peugeots /Citroens, etc in the US. Cost of entering the market is way too high.
A non-certified car can apply for import and be converted to standards and tested. This costs a lot of money for one person to do by themselves. The EPA emissions test costs $1000 alone. I think that a car that someone here would want to import might qualify under the technology caveat.
In theory, if there were a car from another market that would pass all the tests off the boat, if done correctly (i.e. in bulk) might be somewhat reasonable price wise.
Perhaps a key learning from this is to contact our legislators regarding these rules, if it didn't cost so much to enter the market we might see more manufacturers willing to make compliant cars.
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