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What Will Hurt Us First?

Yes, I know some will say "all of the above", but try to guess.

I chose global warming as we've aready seen its effects in the number and ferocity of weather events around the world over the last few years.

While oil prices are certainly rising we in the U.S. are still spending much less per quantity than just about anywhere else in the world. You should hear what my British counterparts are spending per liter. *shudder* People still run out and buy 15 MPG SUV's as soon as the pump prices drop to USD $2.50 so if anything having the price per gallon go up above USD $5, or maybe to $7, would actually do a lot more good than harm as it would make everyone - including soccer moms - start thinking about oil dependency, FE, etc.

Let oil prices rise, I say.

I figure fuel shortages and Climate Change are going to hurt - just not sure which will bite first.

Given Detroit's history of fighting any serious upgrade in fuel economy, I fear Americans cling to their gas guzzlers until something happens like Iran embargos oil, then we experince a serious recession.

Of course, Southern California and Arizona are already way behind on rainfall, so a summer drought for them is all but certain. :(

Peak Oil. I think global warming is a bit like the frog in the gradually warming water. We'll never jump out of the pot since the temp increase still feels gradual.

Money on the other hand is different. People notice the smallest movement in money almost immediately.

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I agree, people do notice changes in money quickly. And eventually, they'll adapt. High gas prices? It'll take some time, but we'll see more cars like ours on the road. It'll be a much bigger problem for transportation of goods than for consumers. I see a recession, or nothing, depending on how quickly prices rise.

Global warming - we'll see. I suspect you're right about the frog thing.

By "hurt us" I'm assuming economically, so I'm going with Global Warming. I'm thinking just a few areas in drought conditions like Southern Cal, or a couple well mis-placed or mis-timed storms can cause major -$ quickly, such as crop losses.

Hi Chuck:

___That was a very good question and great poll!

___I have my own nightmare scenarios but more then likely, Peak Oil will probably arrive first with all the financial disruptions we have read about in the past. There just are not enough alternative fuels to cope with our insatiable demand and by the time the price is right, we won’t have the pipeline capable of supplying enough anyway? That being said, we have survived financial disruptions like this in the past and will do so again in the future. Longer term, I think GW will really do the damage. We certainly are not stopping our GHG emissions and nobody seems to have anything in place to pull back the output so we are all but certain to ruin our crop(s) output by some degree with the warmer temps, less rainfall where its needed and too much where its not. This one could go in a lot of different directions unfortunately :(

___Probably my worst fear is a few Iranian nukes going off in Israel in < 10 years with the carnage spreading quickly throughout the Middle East afterwards. Peak Oil happens the second the first nuke explodes so add WW III to the financial disruption and you can imagine what the world will look like the next day.

___Good Luck

___Wayne