Archives

Toyota doesn't see plug-in hybrids coming to market soon (http://info.detnews.com/newsblog/index.cfm?category=Toyota)


http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/2/Toyota_Gallons_Saved_Billboard.gifDetroit News - Jan 8, 2008MSNBC.com - Jan 8, 2007

Toyota Motor Co., the global leader in the production of hybrid vehicles, is studying a plug-in version which owners could recharge at home but doesn't see it coming to market anytime soon. "There's one very important technological obstacle which is in the battery area," Masatami Takimoto, executive vice president at Toyota Motor Corp. for research, product development and advanced technology, told reporters at the North American International Auto Show. "We have to develop batteries far superior to lithium-ion ones -- stronger, lighter, smaller and longer-lasting. Currently, all over the world, efforts to improve batteries are in the early stages. For commercialization, it may take quite some time." Asked what powertrain technologies he foresaw emerging as the dominant ones in the future, Takimoto said the vehicles of the future would reflect the most plentiful types of fuel (hydrogen, ethanol, natural gas, electricity, etc.), and that would vary by region. He suggested the uniformity seen over the past century -- with nearly all vehicles powered by internal combustion engines running on petroleum-based products -- would give way to a more diversified industry. "It depends on the energy landscape. There's a strong possibility that various types of energies will be used in different parts of the world. We believe we have to be prepared to cope with a situation in which there are multiple solutions." He said Toyota was pursuing the development of hybrid technology, viewing it as applicable to most future powertrains because it recovers energy during the braking of the vehicle.

The article is right about one thing: the battery technology is the *only* stumbling block between current-era hybrids and 150 MPG dream machines. Toyota and Honda have the engine technology, transmissions, computer tech, controllers, wiring, and design know-how.

Hi AshenGrey:

___From the engineers and marketing people I spoke with this past weekend, the batteries are ready today. The latest Li-Ion’s from both JCI/Saft and A123Systems appear to be capable of at least 10 years/150,000 with only minor degradation. The performance of these packs is so superior to anything of NiMH origin it is not even close. Remember Toyota equipped the RAV4EV w/ NiMH’s that are so far holding up very well with some of those vehicles already well beyond 100K miles with only minor battery cap and capability loss. The manufacturers may have not completed there own internal testing but from what I heard, the batteries are truly ready.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

Hi AshenGrey:

___From the engineers and marketing people I spoke with this past weekend, the batteries are ready today. The latest Li-Ion’s from both JCI/Saft and A123Systems appear to be capable of at least 10 years/150,000 with only minor degradation. The performance of these packs is so superior to anything of NiMH origin it is not even close. Remember Toyota equipped the RAV4EV w/ NiMH’s that are so far holding up very well with some of those vehicles already well beyond 100K miles with only minor battery cap and capability loss. The manufacturers may have not completed there own internal testing but from what I heard, the batteries are truly ready.



Wayne, I have heard that too. However, that appears to be one side of the story and many of these companies are indeed eager to land a sweet longer term deal. The problem (as it is constantly mentioned in some circles) is that auto manufacturers need quantities and yields that most of these battery manufacturers cannot guarantee. That is why they say the technology is not ready yet.

According to some, the other thing that would help is if some of these companies were bought by a major auto manufacturer. Right now, the press that they are getting makes them very expensive for that to even be a consideration as they tend to negotiate deals and prices from a position of advantage.

Cheers;

MSantos

According to some, the other thing that would help is if some of these companies were bought by a major auto manufacturer.

About two years ago, Ford accused Panasonic of limiting production to help the Prius and hurt the FEH .

Hi MSantos:

___The one thing we heard from “THE” principal Design engineer of one of the larger Li-Ion pack manufacturers was that he would have no problem installing a 10 + kWh pack from his company in an FEH or Prius II today. He drives both w/ his company’s smaller packs already of course. He said he would run one of the larger packs only after he had properly reverse engineered the OEM control algorithms, data conversion circuits needed so the car would recognize the pack for what it was and that the pack would work with the car as the cars designers would have if they designed the Prius II or FEH around a 10 + kWh pack to begin with. His issue was that if there were a problem that did show up, he would not know if it was a mistake he made in the reverse engineering, if it were a Inverter/Converter problem that fed back into the pack, or the pack were to fail causing a malfunction. Basically he said, “it is not the Li-Ion packs that are the problem” as they are ready to go but the integration and testing that needs to be worked out w/ the OEM’s system design engineers.

___You can imagine some of the cold and hot temperature bench and real world testing that has gone on with these packs (we heard the stories and they are wild). Again, the packs are showing excellent resiliency to the extremes just as they are showing their excellent capabilities over and above any NiMH solution on the market today. Think RAV4EV w/ its huge banks of Panasonic sourced NiMH cel’s still in use today as a benchmark and the new Li-Ion’s are exceeding anything that chemistry is capable of from what we have heard just this past weekend.

___I am very optimistic from the battery manufacturer side of the fence. Now it is up to the OEM's to follow through.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

About two years ago, Ford accused Panasonic of limiting production to help the Prius and hurt the FEH .

Very true. That is an ever present risk.

Saddly, that is one of the ways of breaking this "Chicken vs Egg" impasse. On one hand every auto maker wants high yield products and steady unit #'s and prices, but on the other hand you cannot have high yields and sufficient numbers until you have a mature manufacturing process.
Because one thing is to produce a few battery packs at a time and then cherry pick for high yields (low defects) the other is to have a battery manufacturing process that is mature in order to guarantee the higher yields and unit numbers needed by auto manufacturers.

I have no doubt that many of the battery companies have built a very enticing technology portfolio as is clearly ehxibited by their product demostrations. However, if they could mass produce (or guarantee production) of these batteries in sufficient numbers with quality yields similar to the few they produce by "hand", then as many believe, they would have been given a locked deal by an auto manufacturer already.

As some claim, these battery manufacturers cannot jump from a few batteries to a few thousands overnight. There's a maturing process that must typically occur. Unfortunately, I suspect that no auto manufacturer wants to be the first to fund the ramp up of the maturing process without the guarantees of exclusive access to the higher yield product later on. If things get really tight then I may see them forming a consortium of sorts to share the costs of maturing the manufacturing process so that then, they can have fair access to the technology in good numbers to meet quotas and at least break even.

Cheers;

MSantos