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Hi All:

___Hold on to your hats and batten down the hatches … Here comes another run up in fuel prices for those of us stuck with purchasing RFG :( Take a look at the RFG Futures just today. Another $0.07 or 4.2 + %! Not much more can be said other then let’s get rid of this mandate right now. With 30 ppm or less sulfur in most ozone non-attainment areas, improving the air quality using a less fuel efficient RFG formulation is a thing of the past imho.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

We were noticing it today. Whats making it rise.

Hi Tom:

___Here are a few …

EIA warns of USAC, Texas RFG price spikes on MTBE transition (http://www.www.platts.com/Petrochemicals/News/7288865.xml?p=Petrochemicals/News&S=n)
US reformulated gasoline prices may spike along the East Coast and in Texas this spring and into the summer as the market copes with the transition away from gasoline additive MTBE, the US Energy Information Administration said Wednesday.

In a report, EIA said current domestic ethanol capacity was also "not adequate to replace the MTBE lost at this time."

About 130,000 b/d of additional ethanol will be needed to replace MTBE currently used in RFG, with the East Coast needing an additional 90,000 b/d of ethanol and Texas requiring about 40,000 b/d more, EIA said.<-- Makes sense.

Unical RFG Patent FAQ - The impact of Unocal's patents (http://www.unocal.com/rfgpatent/faq4.htm)
Some gasoline providers have said they won't make EPA RFG gasoline to avoid infringing on Unocal's patents, causing the price to rise significantly.

The Unocal patents are not an obstacle to providing adequate supplies. First, those who sign a license can use our patents to help them efficiently manufacture RFG. Several of our licensees have publicly state that our patents help them increase their production. Others have said they can blend around our patents.

The Unocal patents are not a significant factor in the price premium for EPA RFG. It is simply the market at work. The price premium for RFG has been driven by tighter gasoline supplies and the higher cost of manufacturing cleaner gasolines. These are the same market dynamics that were present in California in 1996. <-- Yeah, right.

The Midwest Gasoline Investigation (http://www.ftc.gov/speeches/other/midwestgas.htm)The FTC's investigation of the Midwest Gasoline price spike found no evidence of any anti-trust violations. In my view the main culprit was the introduction of Phase II reformulated gasoline and the adjustment to that new requirement, particularly in the Chicago and Milwaukee area, where refiners use ethanol rather than MTBE in reformulated gasoline (RFG).

Wholesale prices for reformulated gasoline in the Chicago area were an average of 22 cents above normal, benchmarking to other markets, for a period of eight weeks. Conventional gasoline prices were also higher than elsewhere during May and June. While these price spikes were significant it is worth noting that prices never came close to the monopoly level.<-- A replay?

___Good Luck

___Wayne

I guess this would be a good time to play the "Guess the peak summer gas pice" game. Extrapolating the last three years of data and ignoring the Katrina spike, one can easily imagine that we will be looking at a national average in the range of $3.00-$3.25. I also tried comparing the winter low to the summer high (again excluding the Katrina spike) for the last two years which gives us an average ~46% increase from low to high. This year that would us at $3.24 as the national peak, excluding additional factors on top of the usual supply/demand. The actual number that we see could be much higher for a couple of reasons. One, it appears that the gap between winter and summer prices is getting larger from year to year. ~43% two years ago and ~48% last year extrapolates to ~53% this year, bringing the number up to $3.40. (Did I mention that my math is really sketchy?) Now imagine what will happen if there is even a hint of strong hurricane activity in the gulf, much less an actual Katrina wannabe. My summer travel plans cringe at the very thought.

You folks with a HCH, Prius, or Insight made an extraordinarily wise purchasing decision. The rest of us will need to develop feather-feet and crazy DWL/FAS skills if we are going to keep up.

I'm guessing about $3.40. If its too much people would scream even louder. The government would find a way to keep them low.

On the other hand "They" want ethanol so "they" may make the price high enough to force people to beg the government to work harder getting ethanol more mainstream.

Expect GM to make a large profit in 2 years as prices rise and ethanol is pushed.

Found this interesting map. Wayne, can you help with the acronyms?
http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/2/medium/FuelBoutique2006.gif

Here you go:
http://www.epa.gov/otaq/rfgnew.htm

RFG- you know that one. Reformulated gasoline- lower benzene, lowered volatile organics, lower sulphur. Overall lower NOx and CO emissions to reduce smog formation in areas designated as having too much smog. Northern and SOuthern states use different formulas because of climate. "Phase 2" RFG, introduced around 2001, further reduced the permissible levels. There is also "Tier 2" fuel- low-sulphur fuel that meets requirements to enforce a PZEV warrantee.

Oxy- oxygenated fuel, almost always RFG fuel. MTBE or ethanol added to make oxygen 2% by mass to ensure all the carbon combusts to CO2, not CO.

RVP- Reid vapor pressure. Measurement of how volatile the fuel is- how much of it evaporates in air. Lower is better- Evaporated fuel also aids smog formation (and makes my kids giddy). Most areas using RFG are required to use RVP 7.0 or below in the summer (not regulated in winter though. Its higher, to vaporize and combust more easily in low temps)

CBG- California boutique gasoline, I think. Cali has local special requirements- different areas with custom blends to combat specific issues. Needless to say this is a nightmare for the fuel companies to deal with.

CBG- California boutique gasoline, I think. Cali has local special requirements- different areas with custom blends to combat specific issues. Needless to say this is a nightmare for the fuel companies to deal with.

Hmmm. I have heard CBG referred to as Clean Burning Gas. Not for sure which is right.:confused:

You're right. Google to the rescue. From what I gather CBG is the term for the local fuels that the EPA permits because the standards are higher than the EPA's requirement. I swagged about boutique fuels because the EPA and industry also refer to local blends as boutique fuels.

Hi Dan and GoNavy:

___I missed this one for awhile … Good question about CBG. It’s “Clean Burning Gasoline”.

___You can read more about what I found here: Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline Program Publications (http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/gasoline/pub/pub.htm) and California Air Resources Board Orders World's Cleanest Burning Gasoline (http://www.arb.ca.gov/newsrel/nr112291.htm).

The new ARB standards order changes to eight specifications of gasoline and are expected to make future blends 30-40 percent less smog forming than today's grades. The changes also will lower cancer risk from compounds such as benzene from by about 25 percent.

The cleaner gasoline is expected to boost gas prices by 10-16 cents per gallon, a cost which state officials said was more than offset by the health benefits from a huge cutback in emissions.

The new standards, which go into effect in 1996 to give refineries time to make necessary modifications, were ordered by the Air Resources Board after a marathon, two-day public hearing in Los Angeles that included comments from the oil industry, as well as automakers and environmental groups.

In all, the new standards for gasoline, based on ARB research as well as testing data from the auto industry and at least 19 oil companies, is expected to reduce emissions of smog-forming hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides by up to 180 tons a day, as well as reductions in sulfur dioxide by slightly more than 1,500 tons per day.

"This marks one of the biggest moves we can make for clean air," said ARB Chairwoman Jananne Sharpless. "Cleaner gasoline can take more pollution out of the air than many of our other programs combined because it reduces emissions from every car on the road at the same time.

"This is not a so-called alternative fuel," she continued. "It is cleaner burning gasoline of all grades for all cars, every day."
The ARB's "clean air recipe" for gasoline calls for limits on highly toxic benzene, caps on some hydrocarbons that are especially conducive to smog formation and standards to limit the evaporation of gasoline.

Additional changes requiring the use of oxygen-rich additives that could reduce up to 1,300 tons a day of carbon monoxide will be considered at another hearing December 12, 1991 in Sacramento.

Reformulation standards adopted last year require refiners to make gasoline that evaporates less, makes use of detergent additives to reduce carbon buildup in engines and that begins the final phase-out of remaining trace elements of lead. All were inexpensive changes that could be put in place easily without refinery modifications at a cost of less than a penny per gallon.

The newest standards, however, will require more extensive remodeling of some refineries with an estimated capital cost of about $2-$5 billion, or about 12-17 cents per gallon. Based on the American Automobile Association's estimate of driving costs, however, the ARB believes that the clean gas standards will add no more than a half-a-penny to the almost 38 cents per mile that the average motorist pays to drive 12,000 miles a year.

Also, in a cost-cutting move, the ARB standards allow refiners to meet the specifications by averaging their gasoline output over 90 days instead of meeting flat limits with every gallon -- which reduces expense without sacrificing clean air benefits. Also, small refiners (less than 55,000 barrels per year), will have an additional two years to meet the standards, which will help them lower their cost per gallon.

The new standards were strongly supported by car makers, including General Motors, Toyota and the Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association, who said that cleaner gasoline was vital to meeting strict tailpipe emission limits, also mandated by the Air Resources Board. Those standards require all new 1994 and newer model cars to be 50 to 85 percent less polluting than today's California cars, which are already the lowest polluting in the world.

___If you haven’t filled up, I would recommend it tonight. RFG was up another 3.4% today and blew right through $2.00 per gallon. This is going to get ugly real quick :(

___Good Luck

___Wayne

super awesome as gas tips over the dollar a litre mark and now creeping towards the 1.10 as the new standard. When gas goes for 99.9 (used to be 86) cents a litre people go nuts!!! Including me ;)

today fillup was 23 L (6.07 gallons) (50L tank - 13.2 gallons) with the odometer talking 386km (239 miles) which tranlsate to about 39 mpg. (6L/100km) Since all my trips are between 5 (8) to 9.3 miles (15km) it doesn't help when temperatures linger between low 5 (41)and 12C (55.4F) high.

But with a new tank of gas today and my brand new spanking scangauge, so far I managed to knock down that number to 5.5L/100KM (42mpg). Now aimed to the teeth I should be climbing to towards that magical 50 mpg number (4.7L/100km).

I hope gas spikes to $1.50/L in the summer so that people should start taking efficency very seriously as I started converting anyone who has interests (since I work at a retail store). Now or never folks...

I need a cleanmpg.com buisness card so I can give out to folks who are really serious about improving their mileage. Today I talked with a guy with a tacoma with large wheels and he told me he was getting 8L/100KM (29.4 mpg) in the city. For a truck rated 11.5/8.0 (20.5mpg city - 29.4 highway) wow man I was pretty impressed, I noticed he had a 5 spd too but I couldn't tell him my answer when he asked "How?" Because I was neglected to because of the possibly safety issues invovled....

such Garbage, now I wish I really told him about this site.