xcel
06-22-2009, 01:53 PM
http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/2/AmericanFlag.jpg A fleet FE increase to 40 mpgUS brings large profits to the US while Asians would lose both share and profits. (cleanmpg.com/forums/showthread.php?p=217033)
http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/big3.JPEGWayne Gerdes - CleanMPG (cleanmpg.com) - June 22, 2009
The Big 2.5 had better move FE to the forefront or they will be gone no matter how many $’s the Government gives them for support.
Ann Arbor, MI. – With the domestic automobile industry struggling to address the worst financial crisis in its history, a new report released by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) analyzed the critical choices faced by automakers and finds that broad and fast change are necessary for success.
According to the report, "Fixing Detroit: How Far, How Fast, How Fuel Efficient?" finds that the existing culture within the domestic auto companies systematically underestimates the value of fuel economy, which has crippled its short and long term profitability.
Modeling the impact of increased fuel economy standards, the study finds that an industry-wide mandated increase in fuel economy of 30 percent to 50 percent (35 miles per gallon to 40.4 mpg) would increase Detroit automakers' gross profits by roughly $3 billion per year and increase sales by the equivalent of two large assembly plans. The chance that increased profits could exceed $6 billion is 18 percent if fuel economy standards were increased to 40.4 mpg, but only 6 percent if standards remain at the mandated 35 mpg.
"Our findings support rapid, wide-reaching change in business models," said Walter McManus, director of UMTRI's Automotive Analysis Division and co-author of the report. "The key to a long-term recovery is executing an excellent portfolio of products, and we find that increasing fuel economy standards will lead to a portfolio of products that is more likely to raise the profits of the Detroit 3 automakers than to lower them."
Rob Kleinbaum, former GM employee and consultant and report co-author, said the industry attitude about fuel economy is symptomatic of its current culture.
"For years it has discounted consumer research results when calculating the benefits of improving fuel economy, often by as much as two thirds," he said. "If GM had followed its own market research results over the last three decades, they would not be in Chapter 11 today."
Fuel Economy is the key enabler
The report models the impact of three different fuel economy standard increases -- 30 percent (35 mpg), 40 percent (37.7 mpg) and 50 percent (40.4 mpg) -- on the profitability and sales of the industry and separately for the Detroit 3, the Japan 3, and all others. The model captures the cost of fuel economy improvement on suppliers, its impact on pricing and the resulting changes in demand. The inputs to the model are the most recent and accepted estimates of all the key parameters, but since there is debate on many of these values, the report conducts an extensive sensitivity analysis on the results.
The Detroit 3 gain profits over base in all scenarios, with the largest profits gained from pursuing more aggressive fuel economy. At the same time, Japanese automakers' profit gains are smaller than the Detroit 3, with the smallest profits gained from pursuing a 50 percent increase (40.4 mpg) in fuel economy.
At a 50 percent increase, the Japanese industry loses sales while the domestic industry continues to gain in sales and profitability -- a result driven by the different starting points.
There is compelling evidence that the Detroit 3 have systematically underestimated the value of fuel economy to customers.
Because Detroit 3 automakers have long underestimated the consumer value of fuel economy, raising fuel economy standards will not cost more than consumers would be willing to pay.
In every scenario, the average cost per vehicle (direct plus indirect) is less than what consumers would be willing to pay.
The new report builds on studies published by UMTRI beginning in 2005 predicting that the three biggest domestic automakers stood to lose billions in profits and thousands of jobs in the event of an oil spike -- a prediction borne out as Hurricane Katrina and tensions around the world sent prices skyward. The studies documented the financial risks to Detroit automakers and the risks to American jobs of higher fuel prices, and predicted that gas prices more than $3 per gallon could lead to combined losses of $7 billion to $11 billion of profits for Detroit automakers.
By the time gasoline prices spiked to more than $4 a gallon in July of last year, Ford and GM had already reported combined losses on their automotive operations of more than $57.2 billion. And through the first quarter of this year their cumulative automotive operations losses since 2004 total $83.6 billion. In addition, they have lost 14.2 points of market share since 2004 (GM down 8.8 points and Ford down 5.4 points).
Click here (http://www.umtri.umich.edu) to access the full report.
http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/big3.JPEGWayne Gerdes - CleanMPG (cleanmpg.com) - June 22, 2009
The Big 2.5 had better move FE to the forefront or they will be gone no matter how many $’s the Government gives them for support.
Ann Arbor, MI. – With the domestic automobile industry struggling to address the worst financial crisis in its history, a new report released by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) analyzed the critical choices faced by automakers and finds that broad and fast change are necessary for success.
According to the report, "Fixing Detroit: How Far, How Fast, How Fuel Efficient?" finds that the existing culture within the domestic auto companies systematically underestimates the value of fuel economy, which has crippled its short and long term profitability.
Modeling the impact of increased fuel economy standards, the study finds that an industry-wide mandated increase in fuel economy of 30 percent to 50 percent (35 miles per gallon to 40.4 mpg) would increase Detroit automakers' gross profits by roughly $3 billion per year and increase sales by the equivalent of two large assembly plans. The chance that increased profits could exceed $6 billion is 18 percent if fuel economy standards were increased to 40.4 mpg, but only 6 percent if standards remain at the mandated 35 mpg.
"Our findings support rapid, wide-reaching change in business models," said Walter McManus, director of UMTRI's Automotive Analysis Division and co-author of the report. "The key to a long-term recovery is executing an excellent portfolio of products, and we find that increasing fuel economy standards will lead to a portfolio of products that is more likely to raise the profits of the Detroit 3 automakers than to lower them."
Rob Kleinbaum, former GM employee and consultant and report co-author, said the industry attitude about fuel economy is symptomatic of its current culture.
"For years it has discounted consumer research results when calculating the benefits of improving fuel economy, often by as much as two thirds," he said. "If GM had followed its own market research results over the last three decades, they would not be in Chapter 11 today."
Fuel Economy is the key enabler
The report models the impact of three different fuel economy standard increases -- 30 percent (35 mpg), 40 percent (37.7 mpg) and 50 percent (40.4 mpg) -- on the profitability and sales of the industry and separately for the Detroit 3, the Japan 3, and all others. The model captures the cost of fuel economy improvement on suppliers, its impact on pricing and the resulting changes in demand. The inputs to the model are the most recent and accepted estimates of all the key parameters, but since there is debate on many of these values, the report conducts an extensive sensitivity analysis on the results.
The Detroit 3 gain profits over base in all scenarios, with the largest profits gained from pursuing more aggressive fuel economy. At the same time, Japanese automakers' profit gains are smaller than the Detroit 3, with the smallest profits gained from pursuing a 50 percent increase (40.4 mpg) in fuel economy.
At a 50 percent increase, the Japanese industry loses sales while the domestic industry continues to gain in sales and profitability -- a result driven by the different starting points.
There is compelling evidence that the Detroit 3 have systematically underestimated the value of fuel economy to customers.
Because Detroit 3 automakers have long underestimated the consumer value of fuel economy, raising fuel economy standards will not cost more than consumers would be willing to pay.
In every scenario, the average cost per vehicle (direct plus indirect) is less than what consumers would be willing to pay.
The new report builds on studies published by UMTRI beginning in 2005 predicting that the three biggest domestic automakers stood to lose billions in profits and thousands of jobs in the event of an oil spike -- a prediction borne out as Hurricane Katrina and tensions around the world sent prices skyward. The studies documented the financial risks to Detroit automakers and the risks to American jobs of higher fuel prices, and predicted that gas prices more than $3 per gallon could lead to combined losses of $7 billion to $11 billion of profits for Detroit automakers.
By the time gasoline prices spiked to more than $4 a gallon in July of last year, Ford and GM had already reported combined losses on their automotive operations of more than $57.2 billion. And through the first quarter of this year their cumulative automotive operations losses since 2004 total $83.6 billion. In addition, they have lost 14.2 points of market share since 2004 (GM down 8.8 points and Ford down 5.4 points).
Click here (http://www.umtri.umich.edu) to access the full report.