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http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/2/Canadian_Flag.jpg Energy demand isn't expected to recover before 2011 (http://www.thestar.com/article/649763)

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/power_lines.jpgTyler Hamilton - THESTAR (http://www.thestar.com) - June 12, 2009

Perhaps no black-outs will occur this year then... --Ed.

A fall in industrial activity and unseasonably cool weather means Ontario continues to generate more electricity than it can use, a problem that can now be tracked online.

The province's Independent Electricity System Operator, which manages supply and demand of power on the grid, began publishing yesterday on its website a rolling 10-day forecast of expected "surplus baseload generaton," broken down hourly.

Over the next 10 days, for example, it is estimating that nuclear, hydroelectric and other forms of generation that must run all the time will produce more power than the province can use over 120 hours, or roughly half the time.

Most of the hours are overnight or on weekends, and at several points surplus baseload generation exceeds 3,500 megawatts, equal to the entire output of Darlington nuclear station.

"There are limited options available to lower output from baseload generators in order to maintain the balance between supply and demand," according to the website, which will update the 10-day forecast every weekday.

"It is expected that incidences of (surplus baseload generation) may increase as Ontario's supply mix continues to change. Current economic conditions have increased the frequency . . . as overall electricity demand has declined."

The system operator said the estimates don't include the option the province has of exporting its surplus power, but during such times it's often given away or sold at a negative price.

Ontario wholesale electricity prices, for example, fell below zero for roughly a third of the 648 hours between March 24 and April 19. Oversupply on June 7 forced nuclear operator Bruce Power, at the request of the system operator, to shut down its 822-megawatt unit 5 reactor. It was kept offline for three days.... http://www.thestar.com/article/649763

Oversupply like crazy, to the point where they are paying to give it away.. yet.. the charges on the bill keep increasing.

Makes zero sense.

Then again.. this economy doesn't make much sense anywhere right now.

This would be a good thread for a poll. "How many kW/h did you use last month"

Through conservation and efficient electronics I've gotten my bill below $30 two months in a row!

Last year our household of two averaged 342 kwh/month. This year so far is at 281 kwh, but very little AC has been used yet. However our electric bill is always less than $7/month for connect charge only, as we generate an average of 438 kwh/month using our grid-connected rooftop PV system. If we had a PHEV, we could use 3.2 kwh/day average to charge it without cost.

Hi Dave:

___Congrats on the PV system indeed! With the spare that you produce, you could cut the wire if there were an inexpensive way to store it!

___Manuel, dropping off a nuke for 3-days was a very expensive proposition as it screws up the fuel cycles, cycles the employees and management and is not a good practice for the reactor core and system (it can get worse depending on the reactors current days online) plus ancillaries for any reason no matter how softly they are brought down.

___I would have thought they would have bottled up the reservoirs and base loaded the Nukes instead? There must be a serious over capacity up there for negative rates at night and to pull that Nuke off-line is not an inexpensive proposition in itself.

___I can think of a million small to large towns and cities down here that would die for the chance at < $0.02/kWh rates. At that point, the Nukes and easily the Hydro are profitable again. The transmission system and system agreements must be precluding that possibility for some reason?

___Good Luck

___Wayne

Hi Wayne;

I know what you mean.

Manitoba usually exports hydro-electric sourced electricity to Ontario and the US, but this year the export volumes seem to be a bit low. Perhaps because the Ontario industry (mainly auto) has been impacted by the recession?

Anyway, the talk in some circles is that the cost of electricity for Manitobans may be inching up a bit on the account of this lower demand outside our borders.

When I built my house I left a designated/vented room in the basement for two battery banks and since then I've had little incentive to fill it up. However, I may just also make the jump and connect it all to a PV array if the local prices push me over the edge. ;)


Cheers;

MSantos