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View Full Version : Freeman Dyson Takes On The Climate Establishment


SlowHands
06-09-2009, 08:43 AM
http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/2/AmericanFlag.jpg Princeton physicist Freeman Dyson has been roundly criticized for insisting global warming is not an urgent problem, with many climate scientists dismissing him as woefully ill-informed. In an interview with Yale Environment 360, Dyson explains his iconoclastic views and why he believes they have stirred such controversy (http://www.e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2151)

Michael D. Lemonick - Yale Environment 360 - June 4, 2009

This is a pretty deep interview, but a good read, thought provoking. -- Ed.

On March 3, The New York Times Magazine created a major flap in the climate-change community by running a cover story on the theoretical physicist Freeman Dyson that focused largely on his views of human-induced global warming.

Basically, he doesn’t buy it. The climate models used to forecast what will happen as we continue to pump CO2 into the atmosphere are unreliable, Dyson claims, and so, therefore, are the projections. In an interview with Yale Environment 360, his first since the Times article appeared, Dyson contends that since carbon dioxide is good for plants, a warmer planet could be a very good thing. And if CO2 does get to be a problem, Dyson believes we can just do some genetic engineering to create a new species of super-tree that can suck up the excess.


These sorts of arguments are advanced routinely by limate-changeskeptics, and dismissed just as routinely by those who work in the field as clueless at best and deliberately misleading at worst. Dyson is harder to dismiss, though, in part because of his brilliance. He’s on the faculty at the Institute for Advanced Study, where as a young physicist he hobnobbed with Albert Einstein. When Julian Schwinger, Sin-Itiro Tomonaga and Richard Feynman shared the 1965 Nobel Prize in physics for quantum electrodynamics, Dyson was widely acknowledged to be almost equally deserving — but the Nobel Committee only gives out three prizes for a given discovery.

Nevertheless, large numbers of climate modelers and others who actually work on climate change — as Dyson does not — rolled their collective eyes at assertions they consider appallingly ill-informed. In his interview with Yale Environment 360, Dyson also makes numerous assertions of fact — from his claim that warming today is largely confined to the Arctic to his contention that human activities are not primarily responsible for rising global temperatures — that climate scientists say are flat-out wrong.

Many climate scientists were especially distressed that the Times gave his views such prominence. Even worse, when the profile’s author, Nicholas Dawidoff, was asked on NPR’s “On The Media” whether it mattered if Dyson was right or wrong in his views, Dawidoff answered, “Oh, absolutely not. I don’t care what he thinks. I have no investment in what he thinks. I’m just interested in how he thinks and the depth and the singularity of his point of view.”..http://www.e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2151

phoebeisis
06-09-2009, 09:07 AM
1965 Nobel prize??? He really doesn't look old enough-on TV- to have been considered for a Nobel 44 years ago? He looks under 60 on TV? He would have to be at least 70 years old-I never would have guessed that.
Charlie
PS- HE was born in 1923.

Chuck
06-09-2009, 08:09 PM
At least he is skeptical in an intelligent way....if you can call him a skeptic. He does acknowledge the Arctic is definitely warming, but contends cold weather kills more people than heat waves.

As a programmer, a system can be wrong, but not in the way you think. Freeman Dyson is correct in we don't know the variables well enough to really predict what's going to happen. In other words, I'm saying I believe AGW is going on, but allow the possibility climate change could go in a totally different direction and still need to curtail fossil fuel emissions.

_________________________

For my whimiscal response:

Maybe he plans to have one of his Dyson sphere (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) constructed inside Earth's orbit, completely papering all the Sun's rays execpt one hole, shuttered by a Venetian blind so Climate Change will be controled. :D

Taliesin
06-10-2009, 08:09 AM
Maybe he plans to have one of his Dyson sphere (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) constructed inside Earth's orbit, completely papering all the Sun's rays execpt one hole, shuttered by a Venetian blind so Climate Change will be controled. :D

I was wondering whether this was the same Dyson, but hadn't gotten around to looking. The Dyson Sphere was also the basis of the "Ringworld" novels by Larry Niven.

jimepting
06-10-2009, 09:01 AM
I read the entire article. I think that he is a very intelligent and wise old man. I also think there is much truth in his assertion that the "professional" climate change community has a strong vested interest in frightening everyone into support of their cause.

However, I do think we should move to limit the use of carbon fuels. These fuels are a finite resource and we need to save some of it for our children and future generations.

On the basic question of climate change, I've been on both sides at several different points. I even invested $30 in Lomborg's "The Skeptical Environmentalist" to try to understand the technical aspects. But having studied this source and others from the environmental community, I must say that to a technically minded outsider finds it very difficult to arrrive at the truth.

Though computer models are apparently not the only source of conclusion for warming experts, I am reminded of the recent discrediting of Alan Greenspan who was a great believer in his economic model of interest rates and money supply. Man made computer models can't account very well for the "double cross" of nature, or for the adaptations of greedy men.

booferama
06-13-2009, 11:02 AM
I also think there is much truth in his assertion that the "professional" climate change community has a strong vested interest in frightening everyone into support of their cause.

I often see claims like this, and I'm curious who you're thinking of re: the "'professional' climate change community" (other than Al Gore). I think there's a legitimate point about how science gets presented to the public at large, but I also think that the fear about AGW is presented in good faith. (In other words, I think a lot of people are scared s***less from looking at the worst case scenario.)

Though computer models are apparently not the only source of conclusion for warming experts, I am reminded of the recent discrediting of Alan Greenspan who was a great believer in his economic model of interest rates and money supply. Man made computer models can't account very well for the "double cross" of nature, or for the adaptations of greedy men.

The Greenspan comparison is an interesting one, in part because he has recently renounced his full-throated love of free markets. But the case for the models used for global warming is pretty solid (http://www.examiner.com/x-10722-Orlando-Science-Policy-Examiner~y2009m6d12-A-response-to-points-raised-in-comments) (scroll down); also, though Dyson suggests that AGW isn't interdisciplinary, it's a truly interdisciplinary theory, working on evidence from physics, biology, chemistry, geology, on down the line.

Fwiw, I admire Dyson and appreciate the way he raises his objections. I happen to disagree with him, but I admire him nonetheless.

xcel
06-13-2009, 12:01 PM
Hi All:

___The back and forth commentary is far more intriguing than the non-expert Scientist guessing as to the positive and negative outcomes of AGW...

http://earsi.com/images/ggp01-4.png

Historic Atmospheric CO2 concentration over the past 400,000 years.

___The fact that CO2 concentrations blew through 300 ppm around 1900 and are rising at an unprecedented rate is a reason for concern.

___Will high CO2 concentrations be good for plants? Possibly? Will it be good for humans? Maybe? Can it cause havoc to the earth’s ecosystem? Probably.

___I would hate to experience a CO2 concentration giving rise to the “bad stuff” no matter what anyone believes just in case humans are in trouble for our past CO2 emissions let alone our future ones?

___Good Luck

___Wayne

jimepting
06-13-2009, 03:26 PM
I often see claims like this, and I'm curious who you're thinking of re: the "'professional' climate change community" (other than Al Gore). I think there's a legitimate point about how science gets presented to the public at large, but I also think that the fear about AGW is presented in good faith. (In other words, I think a lot of people are scared s***less from looking at the worst case scenario.)


Well Gore will do fine as a start. It becomes increasingly clear that he is making a lot of money in the global warming business.

A little personal revelation, in my professional life I was a systems engineer working in the Defense Department. I was privy to many government studies, and even directly responsible for a few. It is my experience that many government studies have strong political backing. It usually goes something like this:Congressman A is elected from the great state of B on a partially environmental campaign. He is appointed to some congressional committee which has environmental issues on its plate. He calls up his NASA or EPA contacts and suggest lots of funding for environmental studies. The agencies smell money, mission expansion, and employment. They redily get "in tune" with the philosophy of Congressman A and start producing sympathetic studies.

I've seen it happen many times, though certainly not always. Just chalk me off as a cynic of studies.

fwit I do believe that the preponderance of evidence does support global warning, but I'm less sure of the cause. I ONCE believed it was man made. There IS an amazing correlation between the expansionof fossil fuel and the temperature rise. But now I'm not so sure of the cause.

But, don't let me discourage the discussion. I enjoy the differing views.



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