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Could plug-in hybrid cars actually increase greenhouse gas emissions? (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,488546,00.html)

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/2011_Chevrolet_Volt1.jpgSteven Milloy - Fox News (http://www.foxnews.com) - Feb. 5, 2009

Here we go again... :rolleyes: -- Ed.

Produced by the Congressional Research Service (CRS), Carbon Control in the U.S. Electricity Sector: Key Implementation Uncertainties provides the lowdown on a variety of carbon control options for the electric power sector, including energy efficiency, renewable energy, nuclear power, advanced coal technology, carbon capture and sequestration, plug-in hybrid vehicles and small-scale power generation technologies.

President Obama has proposed that we reduce our CO2 emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. For the electric power sector, this goal translates to reducing what is projected to be 2.6 billion metric tons of CO2 emitted in 2020 to approximately the 1.8 billion metric tons of CO2 that were emitted in 1990 -- a more than 30 percent reduction in emissions over a period of about 10 years.

Could this goal be achieved through gains in energy efficiency? Numerous private and government sources have claimed, after all, that 25- to 30-percent gains in efficiency are possible over a 5- to 15-year time horizon. But according to the CRS, “the diffuse nature of efficiency opportunity and the economic complexity of decision making” has historically made moving beyond the 5 percent to 7 percent electricity savings range “a persistent challenge to conservation proponents.” Although more aggressive policies could be attempted, the CRS says, there is “little track record upon which to base projections of future effectiveness.”

The CRS considered wind power and biomass as renewable energy sources. The main problem with wind, according to the report, is that while proponents assert wind could provide 20 percent of U.S. electricity needs, the U.S. electricity transmission network is already much… http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,488546,00.html

All choices have some downside to them. But not taking any action at all seems like a much greater folly. At least Obama has put some serious brains at the top, and hopefully we will see some science-backed multi-disciplined decisions as a result.

We cannot continue to struggle around in a net designed and held by foreign oil producers

Lots of things have been called "impossible" such as man-powered flight.

Wait a second here... The source is FoxNews, correct?

If so, then the reasoning and conclusions made in the article make sense since this appears to have good traction among their readership/listeners/viewers.

Cheers;

MSantos

Hey, I just realized what my new occupation will be:

"Junk Journalism Expert"

The arguements made for any one of these technologies is probably about right, but taken together as a package they become far more that the sum of their parts.

So wind increases to 20% (frankly I think we can go further) and other renewable sources, tidal, wave, and solar gives us another 20% and eventually go much further as their output is more predictable. Then PHEVs will be "burning" very clean energy. But what about when you need to go further than 20/80 miles....bio-fuels. While we can never expect to produce 100% of fuel at todays usage from bio...we could expect that 100% of fuel at tomorrows usage....at the point we are all driving vehicles that get 100s of miles to the gallon for typical usage (thinking plug-in) we need only 5/10/20 percent of the fuel we need today. If higher range PHEVs (200+) and rapid charge stations become a reality, then we need even less gas than that.

Look at humans...if you look at all the design flaws in the indivual systems, then we look pretty bad, but in whole we are pretty remarkable creatures....even if I do say so myself.

Wait a second here... The source is FoxNews, correct?

If so, then the reasoning and conclusions made in the article make sense since this appears to have good traction among their readership/listeners/viewers.

Cheers;

MSantosFoxNews - they reported the exploding Lexus as a "hybrid malfunction" (Early Reports on Car Bombing of Ark Doctor Erroneously Cited Hybrid Malfunction (http://www.cleanmpg.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19331&highlight=arkansas))

WHEN FOX NOISE ATTACKS - PART DEUX

First the electric hybrid debacle yesterday now this!

The research has been clear that electric cars and plug-in hybrids emit substantially fewer sulfides, oxides of nitrogen and most importantly CO2 over gasoline powered cars even if the power comes from nasty, dirty evil coal plants. Wheel to wells, an electric car is 26 percent efficient. Gasoline cars by comparison just from gas pump, not from the well, are only 13% efficient so there is an effective doubling in energy efficiency over gasoline powered cars. Sherry Boschert has compiled a substantial list of studies and she starts with emissions on page 3. http://www.sherryboschert.com/Downloads/Emissions.pdf

I clicked on the link from the Faux News article and it led me to the Junk Science website which is run by Steve (the junkman) Milloy who is also author of that article. Steve Milloy is a PR flak for big oil and tobacco. Milloy has a long track record of taking industry’s side on DDT, global warming, Alar, breast implants, secondhand smoke, ozone depletion, and mad cow disease. Milloy took his money from the tobacco industry in the late 80's and early 90's to dispute the decades long research that linked tobacco use with cancer. He then went on to take money from Exxon (later Exxon-Mobil) to take the discredited position denying the link between man-made CO2 emissions and increase in average global temperature. Desmogblog has a wonderful write-up on him and his many industry ties. He is a regular on Fox Noise anytime they need anthropogenic (man-made) global warming talking points.

The attack he is making on electric cars and plug-in hybrids is nothing new. He is on the dole from Exxon-Mobil so his attack on the efficiency and practicality of electric cars should not be surprising.

If there were any honesty in labeling the article should be called The Futility of Expecting Honest from Steve Milloy.

To be fair even CNN's initial report stated that it appeared to be due to a malfunction.

While people debate the benefits or lack thereof of PHEV's, I'm getting good use out of my HEV right now, and not in some hypothetical, vapor-ware future (like when the Volt comes out).

While people are arguing about PHEV's, I'm saving gas and have minimized my CO2 emissions now.

Harry

Good point Harry. And frankly if people like us hadn't bought hybrids in the numbers we did, PHEVs wouldn't even be on the drawing board. I like to think we all contributed to the research that is leading to the next generation. (and I'll probably do it again)

We have people here in Houston who are currently driving EVs and one I know at our electric vehicle club drives a plug-in Prius and he is saving even more gasoline. It wasn't but a few years ago that hybrids were being laughed at by the big 3 execs who also had the Bush administration, Andy Card worked at GM and was in Bush's cabinet, kill the US government's hybrid vehicle program just in time for Toyota to claim the mantel as cleanest, greenest car company. Today plug-ins are laughed at. Tomorrow they will be driven.

To be fair even CNN's initial report stated that it appeared to be due to a malfunction.

To be truly fair, both were reporting that the police suspected a malfunction.

To be truly fair, both were reporting that the police suspected a malfunction.Usually in circumstances like this, authorities withhold comment until they are sure what might have happened.

Usually in circumstances like this, authorities withhold comment until they are sure what might have happened.

Agreed. I don't put any blame on either news agency here, but I do put blame on the police.

And back to the origianl thread:
Holy Moly, here we go again.

Yes, the electrical transmission infrastructure needs upgrading. How much depends on who you listen to, but upgrades are needed.

Yes, we will need some more sources for electricity. Hopefully "green" sources. Wind, tidal geothermal (I include nuclear here as well, but not everyone does).

However, both should be in the upcoming stimulus package. If it isn't, we get to blame all of the politicians.

Where did they get the idea that a PHEV will average $40k?

That is the currently projected cost of the Chevy Volt.

WHEN FOX NOISE ATTACKS - PART DEUX

The research has been clear that electric cars and plug-in hybrids emit substantially fewer sulfides, oxides of nitrogen and most importantly CO2 over gasoline powered cars even if the power comes from nasty, dirty evil coal plants. Wheel to wells, an electric car is 26 percent efficient. Gasoline cars by comparison just from gas pump, not from the well, are only 13% efficient so there is an effective doubling in energy efficiency over gasoline powered cars. Sherry Boschert has compiled a substantial list of studies and she starts with emissions on page 3. http://www.sherryboschert.com/Downloads/Emissions.pdf


I'm sorry but I don't agree that PHEVs come without potential negative impact.
Some articles that Sherry Boschert reference report that PHEV's would increase emissions, including CO2 over regular hybrids, if electricity generation doesn't advance beyond our current coal mix.
The research paper Milloy cites was funded/produced by a research arm of the Library of Congress, authored by an energy specialist. I agree that Milloy twisted and sensationalized the paper. Too bad the Fox's article reads "Hybrids", because that is false. But there are some challenges to be overcome if PHEVs are to make a significant impact. Wind power and transmission lines are no small issue. NIMBYism is alive.
I think DeltaFlyer's "impossibility" of man powered flight sums it up well.

This article http://www.ornl.gov/info/ornlreview/v41_1_08/regional_phev_analysis.pdf was referenced in the research paper. I thought it was a fascinating read.

Keith

We've been thru this coal-powered PHEV discussion before.

What would you rather have:

150 million gasser cars in the US?
150 million PHEVs in the US powered by 1500 coal plants?Let's assume my figures are ballpark....I'd opt for #2 as the lesser of evils since controlling the emissions of 1500 plants is much easier than 150 million tailpipes.

The article is simply a rant.

Moving on, the ORNL paper is interesting. Thanks for the post. Looks pretty good - (boy, did they miss this year's auto production est.!)

Their key statement, not mentioned as clearly in the ExecSumm:

While PHEV charging can have an impact on the peak days, on most other days the addition does not raise demand over the annual peak. The 2030 scenarios show a more marked rise in the demand profiles due to PHEVs. The impact of charging during the evening is significant, but charging during nighttime has no impact on capacity requirements.

We have brownouts and blackouts here in NY between 5-11pm during summer. That is prime plug-in period, but it can be managed.

Additionally, EVs will gradually be introduced into the fleet (e.g. - hybrids are only about 2-3% of cars sold after 10 years on the market). The rate will pick up, but it will take many years (10-15 best?) for EV charging to be significant.

In the worst case, the utilities have a lot of time to prepare for what looks to be incremental demand increase.

While PHEV charging can have an impact on the peak days, on most other days the addition does not raise demand over the annual peak. The 2030 scenarios show a more marked rise in the demand profiles due to PHEVs. The impact of charging during the evening is significant, but charging during nighttime has no impact on capacity requirements.

We have brownouts and blackouts here in NY between 5-11pm during summer. That is prime plug-in period, but it can be managed.

Charging could be managed in a way that might improve plug-in efficiency, especially in winter, by incorporating a system to time the charging. Batteries work best in a certain temp range: too cold and they do not deliver full power because cold slows chemical reactions, too hot and they may be irreversibly damaged. The charging process produces heat as a byproduct, which is why charging is usually done slowly (trickle charging).*

So rather than charge the battery in the 5-11pm timeframe and then let it cool down in the middle of a winter night, it could be advantageous to delay charging (automatically!) to later in the night so that charging would finish with the battery at optimum operating temp, just before the car is needed in the morning. Sort of like an EBH (and in fact an EBH could be coupled to the system if the vehicle has an ICE).

The idea would be for the owner to punch in the time when the car would be needed next and the system would adjust charging accordingly, factoring in the SOC of the battery, time, ambient temp, etc. This might also fit better with electrical usage patterns, and possibly reduce or delay the need for infrastructure improvements.

* - Discharging also produces heat. The Insight goes through annoying and wasteful cycles to bring its battery up to operating temp when started from cold. Newer hybrids may handle this better.

There are plenty of MW's available on the grid for EV charging during 9p.m. to 6a.m. hours.

This is an Ontario forecas (http://www.ieso.ca/weather/mkt2/ONDEMAND_Q_0.png)t for today.



And you can watch the MISO forecast here (http://www.midwestmarket.org/page/LMP+Contour+Map+(EOR)) which is indicative of time/load. Today prices are at the low end due to the warm temps overall.

That is the currently projected cost of the Chevy Volt.

I know what you're saying, but to point out yet another way in which this story was so one sided, they didn't even properly report the facts. The Volt is not a phev, there is nothing hybrid about it. GM has been very clear about this. It is an electric vehicle with a range extending gasoline engine.

Strictly speaking, the Volt is indeed a (serial) hybrid. Versions of this have been around for a long time in locomotives. GM just really wanted something to differentiate itself from the competition.

Whatever they call it, though.. I want one!!