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Bill Reinert is not shy about his opinions... (http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/toyota-on-three-electric-autos-1334.html)

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/Toyota_Hybrid-X_concept.jpgJennifer Kho - greentechmedia - Aug 29, 2008

Bill Reinert is right about a lot of things, but hope this is not one of those cases - Ed

Credit Sledge for this find! (his original thread (http://www.cleanmpg.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15445))

Bill Reinert, a national technology manager at Toyota, says he and some of his colleagues don't expect the Tesla Model S, Fisker Karma or Chevy Volt to make it.

A national manager at Toyota Motor Corp. believes some of the most eagerly anticipated electrified cars could end up being a flop, EV World Insider (http://www.evworld.com/general.cfm?page=insider&title=INSIDER%20COMMENTARIES#deathwatch) reported Thursday.

According to the EV World (http://www.evworld.com/) newsletter, which was dated Aug. 18 but released via e-mail Thursday, Bill Reinert, national manager of Toyota's advanced technology group, said that some Toyota employees have started a "death watch" on the Tesla Model S (previously codenamed Whitestar), Fisker Karma and the Chevrolet Volt…http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/toyota-on-three-electric-autos-1334.html

PHEV's and EV's will be a success but not by 2012. More like 2020. Even the Prius took almost ten years to take off and be a huge success.

If Bill Reinhert is correct, GM is in even bigger trouble, as the Volt is their Great eHope.

I wonder if this is his personal opinion or what. Some people may construe that as Toyota's official position.

The real test will be time, whether or not they continue to sell. I would hope so since I think there is a definite place in the lives of many Americans.

Faithful and True

Our hearts are with PHEV's & EV's here, but battery cost IS an issue for now. Thing is, we can do amazing things with even a 6 to 12-mile (EV range) PHEV Prius while the costs come down for mass market 40+ mile EV range.

I think the PHEV Prius (2011 or 2012 model year?) will sell every unit they can make. Skeptical for 2012 that Tesla or Volt will be pricing for the masses.

I can see some of the EV and PHEVs working in 2012, while others fail.

Everyone recalls how IBM laughed at PC's when they first came out

Everyone recalls how IBM laughed at PC's when they first came outBob Lutz hopes his PR problem is..."a 40-mile EV should be enough for everybody" (read: "640K should be enough memory for everyone")

Hi All:

___Bill is about the straightest shooter I have ever had the pleasure to speak with and when he speaks, you have to know it comes with a lot of well researched insider information attached.

___On the flip side, a 16kWh pack should cost around $5,600 OEM. A Prius with a $4,000 markup for a 40 mile range PHEV upgrade doesn’t sound like it is that out of reach and GM can do the same. GM trying to make a killing at $35K plus for the Volt is going to be its downfall but if you consider the next gen Cruze at $16K, add $10K for battery, inverter/transverter, bus and generator, you have the makings for one hell of a vehicle and for a high 20’s price. Most Prius’ are being sold in the mid-$20K range now without any PHEV capability.

___The back of the envelope calc’s look great for a high $20K vehicle but the GM pronouncements of mid 30’s are going to be tough to swallow for the average driver looking at a compact/midsize.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

He is probably right about the Tesla. It is a very pricy low volume car from a new car company. New car companies usually fail. Tesla is a one trick pony! GM plans a whole family areound the VOLT.

There are just 2 ways the Volt can fail with $3 gas.
1) A $45000 MSRP with out of pocket expenses over $40,000(I'm assuming, and approve , of a big TC).
2) Poor , not quickly unresolved QC - vehicles sitting on the side of the road.

Charlie

Everyone recalls how IBM laughed at PC's when they first came out

It's not that simple. When the PC began, officially with the Altair 8800 on the cover of the February 1975 Popular Electronics magazine, there were no other competitors. It made room for Steve Wozniak and Steve Jobs back in the late 70's to start Apple from a garage. Eventually IBM took notice by the late 70's but this industry was too nimble for IBM to dominate and the result was, although IBM established the PC standard in 1981, it was reverse engineered by Compaq, Dell and others and competition ensued. They succeeded over IBM largely because they were better positioned to exploit the miniaturization of processor and memory chips that led to more powerful computers.

Since cars are already established that run on gasoline or in some cases diesel the EV will have to compete against cars powered by fossil fuels. Battery technology, whether we like it or not, is an issue. The primary issues with batteries center around range and cost. While it is true that EV's can be an option for 80% of the public that drives 40 miles or less round trip to work the public perception is that range is a problem and they will be apprehensive when the batteries reach a low state of charge before they arrive home on the evening commute. The second issue of cost is also of considerable concern. The General Motors Chevy Volt was announced by Robert Wagner, when he was interviewed on the Charlie Rose Show recently, to cost between $35,000 to $37,000. He left an escape clause though when he stated that it DEFINITELY would not be more than $50,000 so he left in the possibility that the car would be in the high $47,000 - $49,000 range. Unless there is some sort of tax credit for the car, should it go into the high $47,000 - $49,0999ish range, I can't see it becoming a major vehicle line for GM. GM will still sell the cars to early adopters but it will be harder to mass-market the car.

I hope they don't fail. I agree with others that both Tesla & GM's Volt will sell every unit they can produce, at least for a few years (PT Cruiser ring a bell). But 3 things need to happen...
1. Price needs to be reduced; Tesla is not a one trick pony. They already have 3 cars, at reducing prices, on the board. If they can deliver within a year of expected and at, or below, the price point they suggested, then they have a market. Unlike the major manufactures, they don't have the baggage of union payments to make. They are in a good position;
2. Performance needs to increase; PHEVs might be price effective at even the 10/20 mile range if the price difference is low enough & the post EV mpg is high enough. As time marches, we expect to see longer ranges up to the point that we will rarely purchase gas except for cross country treks. And at some point, we should see high voltage, short time charging stations starting to appear on the interstates.
3. Diversity. To some degree the Prius is already getting old. Some will love the car foever, but people want to see similar performance in different styles. I believe Toyota once said they would be offering hybrid drive trains in all their vehicles in a fairly short time period (2012/14?). If they can do that, and not just offer hybrid, by phev, then they would dominate a market where other manufactures only have a few vehicle choices available. As I said before, I'm waiting on PHEV, and my wife is waiting on a convertable. First company to combine the two has at least one instant sale.

There is a forth issue; Reliability. While I personally suspect that hybrids & PHEVs will always be more reliable than their conventional cousins, many people won't believe that until the car goes through at least one generation. Hopefully the Prius hybrid will have people already have convienced; And the conversions may quicken the pace of acceptance. Personally, I think it may well be 5/10 years before most people would rather have the PHEV, but within 5 I think most people will buy them, preference or no, just from the economic aspect.

Now, where can I get a 40mile PHEV conversion kit for my HiHy for under 5k? At that cost/range it would pay for itself during the life of the car. Higher than that, the finance comittee won't swing it. :)

I wonder if this is his personal opinion or what. Some people may construe that as Toyota's official position.

The real test will be time, whether or not they continue to sell. I would hope so since I think there is a definite place in the lives of many Americans.

How exactly would they get put to market and get sold if the company higher-ups pronounce them DOA? If that's the case, they're not going to invest heavily in them and they'll never get much manufacturing support.

The silver lining in all this is that the technology is actually being developed because there is a perceived demand. If these cars come out and sell well there will be a huge revolution in motor, chassis, and battery technology to follow that will bring EV's in line with fossil fuel range and performance numbers. Mass production always brings the cost down and battery cost will follow suit. The problem has always been volume of demand. They are expensive now because the technology is new and demand for mass production was not really there.

I believe that there first needs to be a revolution in chassis design using composites, which like batteries, are really expensive because mass production techniques have not yet been developed. If you drop 500 to 1000 lbs from the cars on the road today we would already have 100 mpg cars on the road.

I personally think the Tesla and the Karma will succeed because they are low production number cars. These cars are going to make money because they have customers who will buy it as a novelty if nothing else. They are too expensive to even consider from a mainstream point of view. As for the VOLT I will be a massive success if it is sold for around 20k. This is GM's bread and butter price range. It may take them some time to make money on the car at this price, but Microsoft and Sony lose money on new system releases until mass production techniques catch up with the technology in the systems. The Volt must be looked at in the same manner from GM in order to succeed. If they release it at 20k they won't be able to keep it in stock.

If Bill Reinhert is correct, GM is in even bigger trouble, as the Volt is their Great eHope.

Bill Reinhert is usually right and I respect his opinions. That's not to say I agree with him all the time.

I can give you one example right here where I know he was wrong. He has stated and it was even shown in Who Killed the Electric Car where he stated that with EV's you're just moving the pollution from the tailpipe to the smokestack. Well in fact this is not the case. There have been several studies on this and it turns out that EV's are cleaner in almost all areas of pollution emission accept for sulfur dioxide emissions from coal fired electrical plants. But, if the existing emissions for coal fired electrical plants were aggressively enforced these emissions would drop too.¹

¹http://www.sherryboschert.com/Downloads/Emissions.pdf See page 4.

So Bill's been wrong on this one however he's got practical no-nonsense views I've come to respect over the years I've been reading and watching him. Is he right? I hope, respectfully to Bill, he is proven wrong again.

Hi All:

___Bill is about the straightest shooter I have ever had the pleasure to speak with and when he speaks, you have to know it comes with a lot of well researched insider information attached.

___On the flip side, a 16kWh pack should cost around $5,600 OEM. A Prius with a $4,000 markup for a 40 mile range PHEV upgrade doesn’t sound like it is that out of reach and GM can do the same. GM trying to make a killing at $35K plus for the Volt is going to be its downfall but if you consider the next gen Cruze at $16K, add $10K for battery, inverter/transverter, bus and generator, you have the makings for one hell of a vehicle and for a high 20’s price. Most Prius’ are being sold in the mid-$20K range now without any PHEV capability.

___The back of the envelope calc’s look great for a high $20K vehicle but the GM pronouncements of mid 30’s are going to be tough to swallow for the average driver looking at a compact/midsize.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

Just curious. When people say "40 mile range" does that mean 40 miles round trip or one-way? In other words is "40 mile range" a 20 mile radius or 40 mile radius?

Thanks,

Bob

It seems the door is wide open for the EV startups. I think the commercially available EV's of the near future will come from smaller companies.

Just curious. When people say "40 mile range" does that mean 40 miles round trip or one-way? In other words is "40 mile range" a 20 mile radius or 40 mile radius?

Thanks,

Bob

40 miles of driving. You can turn around at 20 or go on, but after traveling 40 (ideal conditions), you need the 'range extender' or a recharging point.

The Aptera has an advantage over the other EV's and PHEV's in that its efficient shape allows it to use about half the Watt-hours/mile to get around than the competition, so it would require less weight (and cost) in batteries and potentially be cheaper to manufacture.

If GM's Cruze can get 45 mpg hwy EPA and sell for $15500 - it might take away lots of business from Toyota and Honda. I really like the looks of the Cruze but wonder about GM reliability.

If GM sells the Volt for more than $33,000 - it's too expensive for the average buyer. More people would rather buy a $23,000 + Prius. And the typical Prius buyer makes more than $65,000 a year.

Wow, the obvious flip response to that guy is "okay, wiseass,
what's the alternative?"
.
About a century ago, EVs *were* competing with fossil fuel cars.
For a while they were winning, because wheezy oil-snorters were
nasty and dirty and cumbersome to deal with and remained the
domain of enthusiasts for some years. Then the technology
stabilized, fuel was made widely and cheaply available, the
benefits [?] of mass production were applied, and the electrics
of the time were pretty much doomed.
.
That was then, but this is now and we're facing several changed
factors. How many PV panels do you think were in daily use
in 1908?? You weren't about to see those classic ads like
"Dr. Schnozzle's high-efficiency INVERTER. Charges your
automobile, and cures the common cold." and a sepia picture of
some mustachioed guy in a bowler surrounded by lightning bolts...
.
_H*

Hi Hobbit,

Remember, there was no such thing as rural electricification, and mass electrification was in its infancy back then in 1908. So both car types were the domain of enthusiasts. The gasoline car had the advantage that one could truck in gasoline and sell it on a corner nearly everywhere. Now, we can plug into electricity everywhere, even easier than getting gasoline.

PHEV's and EV's will be a success but not by 2012. More like 2020. Even the Prius took almost ten years to take off and be a huge success.

That is true, but gas was like around a dollar ten years ago and only untill last year and this year did it get way out of control. People are ready now for small higher mileage cars. I am optimistic.:flag:

I do think it's going to take quite a few years (and cheaper battery technology) before PHEVs and EVs take off. Unlike hybrids, which in some cases can pay for themselves within a few years, the payback is going to take a long time if it happens at all. Don't get me wrong: most of us here don't hypermile because of the mere financial savings, and if I had the financial wherewithal I would be driving a BEV to work right now despite the cost.

But upper 20s for a GM subcompact? That's going to be a hard sell. Maybe the Cruze will be a great car, but GM's track record in this size class is pretty bad. Priuses sell well at $23k+ because they're great cars, every much the equal in quality and refinement to the best cars in the compact-to-midsize segment. There's no way GM can build a $16k car the equal of the Civic, Accord, Camry, Corolla, Mazda3 or Golf/Jetta. Now add $12k or more to the price tag of what is probably not going to be a world-class car in the first place? I don't care what the environmental benefits are, you're not going to get a lot of takers. Oh well, what does my opinion matter? I'm too practical to imagine spending upper 20s on a car anyway.

It seems to me that EV's and PHEV's will probably develop a place and a market, even if the EV's are "local use" vehicles. Perhaps EV owners will rent or share longer-range PHEV's or small non-hybrids as needed for longer trips.

I'm skeptical about the series hybrid concept which seems to be planned for the Volt:

(a) Its 40-mile EV use would seem to be fine except that it would be carrying the extra weight of the "range extender" generator set and associated equipment, so it probably would be less efficient than a plain EV. In this mode the Volt might have a weight advantage over a parallel hybrid with its larger ICE and other equipment and hence might gain range for a given battery size, depending on the weight difference.

(b) Once the range extender kicks in, it seems likely that the operation will be far less efficient than that of a parallel hybrid setup. The reason is the large losses for conversion of mechanical energy to electrical, storage in the battery, and retrieval from the battery for every drop of gas burned. The parallel hybrid mostly avoids these losses.

Sizing of the ICE in the parallel hybrid would be critical. I think Honda explored the minimum end of the range with the Insight.

It's a complicated equation. And I'm sure GM would obfuscate any efficiency differences as they always do.

It seems to me that EV's and PHEV's will probably develop a place and a market, even if the EV's are "local use" vehicles. .....

(b) Once the range extender kicks in, it seems likely that the operation will be far less efficient than that of a parallel hybrid setup. The reason is the large losses for conversion of mechanical energy to electrical, storage in the battery, and retrieval from the battery for every drop of gas burned. The parallel hybrid mostly avoids these losses.

Sizing of the ICE in the parallel hybrid would be critical. I think Honda explored the minimum end of the range with the Insight.

It's a complicated equation. And I'm sure GM would obfuscate any efficiency differences as they always do.


Actually they've found that at least at a larger scale in diesel/electric locomotives that the series hybrids are pretty efficient. I'm not sure what percentage of electrical output during "on the road recharge" will actually be dedicated to recharging battery as opposed to directly operating the drivetrain. You'd want to minimize ICE battery charging. If they size the ICE to provide just a little more power than what is required to cruise at highway speed I'd bet it will be pretty efficient, if they drop a hemi in, I'd bet against it. To me it seems that having two transmissions, like the parallel hybrid system has, might be less efficient due to the additional weight and complexity.

As I understand it, the efficiency of series hybrids is mainly a result of the ICE only operating at loads near the peak of its efficiency and for many (most?) drivers this would outweigh storage/conversion losses.

I'm hoping that Toyota/Reinhart's statements are an example of pride going before a fall.

Just a small note -- the Volt's engine is directly connected to a generator which has two pathways -- one directly to the motor driving the vehicle and the other to the battery pack.

Just a small note -- the Volt's engine is directly connected to a generator which has two pathways -- one directly to the motor driving the vehicle and the other to the battery pack.

Which means a larger generator because it would need to provide both power to keep the Volt moving (if not accelerate it) and simultaneously recharge the battery.

This gets closer to something like an Insight engine, so one wonders how the efficiencies and losses balance out between using the ICE to drive the wheels via a trans vs converting the ICE's mechanical energy to electrical and using that to power an electric motor to drive the wheels. Apparently the plan with the Volt is to use a generator tuned for efficiency at a particular rpm, so this may help balance the equation.

The situation is somewhat different from a train: the huge mass of a train means a massive transmission would be needed to handle the torque, diesel electric avoids that. And the train has no battery storage pack.

John, you are correct however the generator will normally only drive the vehicle -- it almost never actually charges the battery from what I can find out. It will use a non-turbo version of the 1.4L slated for the Chevy Cruze and is apparently intended to run at only 4 different RPM settings (chosen based on demand requirements for the best FE). The pack will be maintained at what is currently termed the "Customer Depletion Level" when driving past the AER because charging via the generator is much less efficient/cost effective than charging from an outlet.

All of this is quite preliminary of course (as the car is still 2 years from market), but it all sounds very promising to me!

Certainly seems that Toyota is late to the game with a condescending attitude on both PHEVs and EVs.

Slightly OT but as my commute takes me past the Nissan Technical Center, I saw the EV01test car been transported last week. Unfortunately turning a corner at night so no pics. With plans to lease the batteries it certainly looks like a real effort.

I also saw the Toyota FCHV (SUV) on the road last week did not bother taking a pic.

Good Luck
Andrew

John, you are correct however the generator will normally only drive the vehicle -- it almost never actually charges the battery from what I can find out. It will use a non-turbo version of the 1.4L slated for the Chevy Cruze and is apparently intended to run at only 4 different RPM settings (chosen based on demand requirements for the best FE). The pack will be maintained at what is currently termed the "Customer Depletion Level" when driving past the AER because charging via the generator is much less efficient/cost effective than charging from an outlet.

All of this is quite preliminary of course (as the car is still 2 years from market), but it all sounds very promising to me!

Now that makes a LOT more sense.

There might be a middle ground where charging the battery (slowly) might enable them to use a smaller ICE and save weight/improve ICE efficiency. The battery could then be used to augment the ICE power when needed, much like the IMA system.

Perhaps an algorithm to start up the ICE slightly before the Customer Depletion Level is reached.

John, the CDL is just the point at which the dash tells the driver there is no more charge, but it is really around 35% or so SOC. The software will dip into the pack at least another 5%, maybe even 10% when extra juice is needed, then will get a recharge back up to that 35% when demand drops again. All of this is completely transparent to the driver and chosen specifically to remain safely above a damaging discharge level.

In other words, you are correct but GM is hiding it behind the CDL.

We need a sub $5k PHEV conversion for the revolution to really take off.