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Some analysts have suggested that world oil prices would reach as high as $200 a barrel during the next 18 months. (http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080608/AUTO01/806080314/1148)

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/Pump_Jack_at_twilight.jpgJoseph Coleman - AP - June 8, 2008

Pump Jack at twilight.

With the benchmark light, sweet crude at more than twice the price it was a year ago, does anyone really believe the energy markets are still under control? This could be just the beginning :( -- Ed.

AOMORI, Japan -- Leading energy-consuming nations urged oil producers Saturday to boost their output to counter soaring prices threatening the world economy, while they pledged to develop clean energy technologies and improve efficiency.

The five nations -- the United States, China, Japan, India and South Korea -- differed, however, on how urgently oil subsidies should be phased out, with Washington backing bold movement while India and China warned of political and economic instability.

Cabinet ministers from the five countries, which account for more than half the world's consumption of energy, agreed that the sharp surge in oil prices was a menace to the world economy, and that more petroleum should be produced to meet rising demand …

Oil prices made their biggest single-day surge on Friday, soaring $11 to $138.54 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, an 8 percent increase. That followed a $5.50 increase the day before, taking oil futures more than 13 percent higher in just two days… http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080608/AUTO01/806080314/1148

"World oil production has stalled at about 85 million barrels a day since 2005"....

"World oil production has stalled at about 85 million barrels a day since 2005"....

I noticed that, too.

Producers won't raise production, or can't raise production?

If they can't, which is very likely, we are at Peak Oil now.

Harry

"World oil production has stalled at about 85 million barrels a day since 2005"....

I'm not surprised. OPEC refuses to increase production, Mexico and Venezuela aren't investing in their oil fields, and we won't even make an attempt to drill at home. :angry:

Might as well say that "effective Peak Oil" is upon us because we're bringing it upon ourselves well before it actually should be, and well before we have a decent change to get alternatives into play. :(

Hi Auston:

___Mexico’s Cantwell peaked 2 years ago IIRC. The US peaked back in 1970. The entire European off-shore shelf/coast peaked back in 2003. Investment had nothing to do with it. Alaska’s output is down over 60% since it peaked about a decade ago. $135 + /BBl would have some jumping at the chance to get in there and drill, drill and drill some more. Instead of drilling on the continent, Shell is spending a few million a day on leased rigs to go 20,000 feet under the Gulf and another 10,000’ into bed rock to get at what’s left out there. Do you really think Exxon/Mobil, Shell, Conoco and Chevron need to rely on a 30,000 +’ well under the ocean if there is a few billion bbl's still here in the continental US that nobody seems to have discovered in the last 38 years? Guess what, 85 million BBl’s a day is the reality. You had better pray for Oil Shale and soon.

___If you believe that you only need to drill some more, you should be out there drilling wells too!

___Good Luck

___Wayne

You're forgetting about ANWR, the reserves in North Dakota, and the huge oil shale reserves, which do give a greater return of energy on what's invested.

I just want to drill the oil now while we have a chance to do it right than have to do it in 10 years when we're in a real crisis. Because at that time we will need a solution right then and there, environmental concerns would be a distant second priority and the consequences would be a thousand times worse for the area than it would be if we drilled in a civil manner. :(

I don't see why people refuse to drill new wells at home at all. Why not give us a few year's worth of reprieve with manageable gas prices while we figure out a better long-term solution to the energy problem?

Okay, so the U.S. government knows we have a problem.

The problem is though, that the gov't moves like molasses in Wintertime.

If, and it's a big if, they allow oil companies to drill in new places on U.S. soil, that oil needs to stay here and not be sold to foreign countries. The highest bid gets the oil, that's business for you. :Banane37:


-Craig™

Hi Auston:

___ANWR is worth all of 90 days supply from what some have predicted so far? Let us hurry up and use that up too! Do you know Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay – North Slope peaked in 1987 at just under 2,000,000 BBl’s per day? Today they are lucky to pump 740,000.

___Oil shale is great. It will take over for oil that is gone. Problem is that does not make the oil price go down. If you believe even for a second that the oil shale coming out is for our consumption only, you have another thing coming. It will be going to the highest bidder just as oil is bought and sold at today. Japanese want syn oil from oil shale at $138/BBl, they get it unless you are willing to pay the same $138/BBl or $4.25 per. As the dollar continues to fall, the Europeans and Japanese will be glad to take it off our hands for $150, $200 … or whatever. Guess what happens to your price at the pump?

http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/gifs/crudeprod.gif
U.S. crude oil production peaked in 1970 and has declined gradually since then. In 1970, domestic production of crude oil (including lease condensate2) averaged 9.64 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d). In 2006, total U.S. domestic crude oil production, including Federal offshore, averaged 5.102 MMbbl/d, a decrease of about 47% from 1970.

UK in 1999 at 3.3 MBD. Today, 1.8 MBD or a drop over 56% so far.
Norway in 2001 at 3.9 MBD. Today, 2.2 MBD or a drop of almost 50% so far.

___If the economics of oil drilling were to follow everything else, everybody would be drilling and finding the stuff all over given it is worth over 5 times what it was just 5 years ago?

___Good Luck

___Wayne

The Bakken field in North Dakota is the one to be watching in North America. USGS keeps increasing their estimates of what is recoverable as rock fracturing/deep horizontal drilling technology advances. Recoverable Light sweet crude is currently estimated at 1/3rd of an ANWR by USGS, but some estimates are much higher (as in 100 times higher).

Sadly that's not the sort of drilling I know how to do and I'm too old to want to be a roughneck anymore--Lamebums on the other hand is young, big, wanting to earn money and get in shape....:p.

I don't see why people refuse to drill new wells at home at all. Why not give us a few year's worth of reprieve with manageable gas prices while we figure out a better long-term solution to the energy problem?

We've had manageable gas prices for decades, and look what happened: nothing! Pick a parking lot, any parking lot, and look at the mix of vehicles. Most are FSP SUV's and pickups. It's pathetic.

The only thing that can make people conserve is to break a 2X4 over the back of their heads with high gasoline prices.

Harry

Sadly, Earthling has it right. I spoke with my parents about 8 weeks ago regarding the purchase of a Prius versus buying 4 new wheels for their 15 year old minivan. The cost/benefit analysis in my Dad's mind was clear. So, they now have 4 new tires on the 'van and are afraid to travel long distances because of the cost of fuel. I'm sure that there are many people who are in the exact same position. It takes $4 plus gasoline to move some people to think differently. Unfortunately, by this time, it's too late for many to make a better purchase. (Their available funds have already been invested for years to come in the vehicles that they have.)

I just want to drill the oil now while we have a chance to do it right than have to do it in 10 years when we're in a real crisis. Because at that time we will need a solution right then and there, environmental concerns would be a distant second priority and the consequences would be a thousand times worse for the area than it would be if we drilled in a civil manner. :(



Really? I think it is better to have a mini-crisis now to get the private sector moving (read investing in new technology because they see huge profits). If the lower prices continue the development of alternatives will grow at a snails pace as it has for the past 100 years. If we would have started 30 years ago on algae-oil we probably wouldn't have any oil dependence right now. We wouldn't be in iraq, heck we MIGHT not have had a 9/11, because we might not have given all our money to al qaeda. Just my opinion, but I am one of the few people who are happy to see sky high oil prices so we can get over our oil addiction. How many cases of lung cancer would we have if cigarettes were $200 a pack? /end rant

Sorry, I'm way to emotional about this subject.

The only thing that can make people conserve is to break a 2X4 over the back of their heads with high gasoline prices.

Harry

Ditto

I have to go with Auston, other points not withstanding, I think we should do everything in our power to buy as little foreign oil as possible. What the US Oil CEOs do with money scares me, but what OPEC nations do with oil money scares me even more.

The sad part is, idealistic views aside, the gov't will do what they think will get them re-elected. On that note, I think they will open up US drilling pretty soon so they can be on the side of "change". I also think that it will make any impact what so ever, but it might gain them a percentage point in the polls.

Basically we are looking at a tidal wave, and most of the "solutions" amount to one or two sand bags laid out on the beach. I for one am learning how to swim and putting my important pictures in zip-lock baggies (to follow the analogy).

It's coming, it's been coming, and it's about 10 years too late to keep the wave from cresting.

11011011

Well, don't think we can't cut back on fuel use. Oil consumption in the U.S. was on a dramatic upward trend until 1973, and we all know there were a few oil shocks at that point and afterward. Consumption went down for two years (1974, 1975), then headed back up again until 1978 (18.8 million barrels/day). At that point, oil use went down for five straight years, going to its lowest modern level of 15.2 million barrels/day in 1983. Consumption stayed below 1978 levels for nearly 20 years, until 1998. We peaked at 20.8 mbbl/d in 2005, and things had been hovering slightly below that level until things started trending downward pretty fast in January of this year.

For March 2008, the most recent data I could find, use is down by nearly 4% from March 2007. If that trend holds through the rest of the year, we'll be below the amount of fuel we used in 2003. If the country manages a drop of 6%, we'll sneak below 1999 levels. However, we'd need to drop by 9% to get back to the same point as that 1978 peak.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_dc_nus_mbbl_m.htm

We have made it to the "Age of Aquarius" with oil! Everyone is "doing his own thing.

America drives FSP's and buys tons of "Made in China" stuff, and says to the world "let's burn your oil first, then America will mine its oil.

China subsidizes gasoline, allowing its citizens to love FSP's as we have for years.

Speculation on the cost of oil has distorted the market (we LOVE to speculate). Speculators like to make money. They could care less what happens to the country. Money is their first and last priority.

The oil industry loves speculation to death, for it gives them huge profits on the oil they get below world market price. They mine a whole lot of oil that they get under the market price and, well what is not to like about "windfall profits"???

Our elected officials love to go along with the auto/oil cartel because they get a lot of money. Lobbying and special interest groups! Ahhh, life is good!!!

The auto industry likes profit too and makes FSP's, FSP Hybrids, and economical cars to drive that get 22 MPG. They don't like the idea of bringing the high MPG cars they make for Europe into this country. They rightly ask the question "why should we compete with ourself??" We only do what we want to do, what we like to do. What part of that don't you understand?

And so we have the dawning of the age of Aquarius where everyone does his own thing. My question is who is doing what SHOULD be done?

Personally I am on the Drill Here side of the fence.

Check out this video from an organization that has a petition going to get us opening up some of our own oil fields.

Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less (http://thebaldmonkey.wordpress.com/2008/05/30/drill-here-drill-now-pay-less/)