Archives

Domestic gasoline consumption is likely to fall more steeply than expected this year . . .But gasoline prices are expected to rise nonetheless. (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/business/07oil.html?_r=2&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&ref=automobiles&adxnnlx=1210597995-/F8aJ2auKJ+1qKM7OfeP+g&oref=slogin)

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/506/gas_price3.jpgJad Mouawad -The New York Times - May 7, 2008

Oil jumped to another record on Tuesday, and the government said it expected gasoline prices to peak at a national average of $3.73 a gallon in June, just as the summer driving season kicks off.

The new forecast from the Energy Department came on a day oil futures rose above $122 a barrel in New York trading after rebels in Nigeria renewed their attacks against oil installations. By day’s end, crude oil for June delivery closed at a record $121.84 a barrel, up 1.6 percent from Monday’s close.

Oil prices have nearly doubled in a year. Gasoline is selling for a national average of about $3.61 a gallon, according to AAA, the automobile club, a penny less than the record set on May 1 but 58 cents higher than a year ago.

Some private analysts have gone beyond the Energy Department’s forecasts, predicting that gasoline will surpass $4 a gallon this summer...http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/business/07oil.html?_r=2&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&ref=automobiles&adxnnlx=1210597995-/F8aJ2auKJ+1qKM7OfeP+g&oref=slogin

The picture attached to that article was quite hilarious, but not tooo hilarious if you get what I mean. The most I have seen here is CT is $4.15 for the premium and well that gave me chills, quite literally. I used to buy the high test gas up until just a few weeks ago and now I pay the same price for the 87 as I did for the 93 – how heinous.

Anyways, I was going to drive across country this summer because I needed to get to California, and I thought I might see some of the sites on my way. But, after plugging in the really hard math, interestingly enough, I discovered not only was it considerably better to for the environment to have my car shipped but I would save some dough too! I calculated my financial cost at www.americanautoshipping.com and my eco-foot print at http://www.whatsmyco2.com/carbon-footprint-calculator.php. I’d be interested to see what results other people get with their cars by plugging in the numbers.

The way you really have to think about this is between obscene gas a food prices, lodging, lost wages from days it takes to travel, and so on, the financial cost adds up to more than an auto shipping price for me. Now with the CO2 output it turns out that because auto transport vehicles carry 10 cars typically, they are replacing the CO2 emissions of 10 vehicles with one truck, and so this is better than driving it and flying (I counted those miles in on the whatsmyco2.com calculations).

Does this makes sense to any of you? Have you done similar calculations yourself and got different results?

It seems like the higher prices are begining to make a difference in the way people drive. There is a stretch of two lane highway I take daily that I have traditionally had a pick up truck or some other velocity addict breathing down my neck every day. Recently they are accepting my speed (55MPH) and most do not seem to be trying to pass me.

I have to take that as a positive sign!!

As demand continues to outpace the growth in oil supplies, analysts expect little relief in prices. A shortfall in supplies over the next two years will probably send oil to $150 to $200 a barrel, Goldman Sachs said in a new report.

Analysts’ forecasts for the price of gasoline over the next few years run as high as $7 a gallon.

I'm sure glad I don't own a gas hog.

Harry

Prices are doing their job. They are communicating to people that gasoline, like any other resource, is scarce and that higher prices force us to ration it. I hope that there is no tax holiday because that might temporarily increase consumption.

I don't think there is any shortage around here yet. Otherwise people would be trying to hoard gas, by staying in line (with engines running) at the gas stations to top-off as much as possible.
(I'm not kidding, I saw this happen back in the 70s).

I think the reason prices go up is due to demand. If every person in America wanted to buy a certain type of car, wouldn't the price of that car go up??
If you owned one, would you sell it cheap?

So, as more new drivers (including millions w/o legal drivers licenses) get cars and start cruising around town, chatting on their cells, they are going to need gas.
Thus increasing demand.

When demand is greater than supply, that's when the problems really start. During a shortage, things get ugly..

It seems like the higher prices are begining to make a difference in the way people drive. There is a stretch of two lane highway I take daily that I have traditionally had a pick up truck or some other velocity addict breathing down my neck every day. Recently they are accepting my speed (55MPH) and most do not seem to be trying to pass me.

I have to take that as a positive sign!!

It funny how they speed until they catch up with you and then just sit there comfortably. Are they scared they will be blamed for only going the limit, so they sit behind someone else. If someone honks or gets mad, they can just point at you like its all your fault.

It funny how they speed until they catch up with you and then just sit there comfortably. Are they scared they will be blamed for only going the limit, so they sit behind someone else. If someone honks or gets mad, they can just point at you like its all your fault.

Strangely enough, as long as they maintain a good following distance, I don't mind that at all. Attention people who actually want to go slow, I'll be your excuse.

When demand is greater than supply, that's when the problems really start. During a shortage, things get ugly..

What I'm afraid of is the relentless demand increase from China and India. They're not just growing, they're accelerating in growth! It won't be long before our usage is basically irrelevant in the supply-demand equation. We could all ride bikes and gas prices will still be unattainable.

What I'm afraid of is the relentless demand increase from China and India. They're not just growing, they're accelerating in growth! It won't be long before our usage is basically irrelevant in the supply-demand equation. We could all ride bikes and gas prices will still be unattainable.

Their growth in demand will at least be tempered by high prices unlike our dependency which was fostered by the days of $1/gal.

Squint,

I actually think your statement, "Their growth in demand will at least be tempered by high prices unlike our dependency which was fostered by the days of $1/gal" is not quite correct.

A main reason that prices continue to grow and grow, and grow, as several people have pointed out here, is the demand by China (which accounts for 1/3 of demand worldwide) and India. And the reason that this is NOT "tempered by high prices" is that the consumers barely feel the price hikes thanks to massive government subsidies. As long as the governments of the nations who dictate the world oil demand protect their people from the harsh reality of the raw market, the people's demand will not decrease, and is thus likely to continuing its exponential rise, leaving us with the bank-breaking consequences.

PS Does anyone have any input from my car shipping via AmericanAutoShipping (www.americanautoshipping.com) vs. traveling across country comment? Any advice is welcome. Thanks so much.

I actually think your statement, "Their growth in demand will at least be tempered by high prices unlike our dependency which was fostered by the days of $1/gal" is not quite correct.

A main reason that prices continue to grow and grow, and grow, as several people have pointed out here, is the demand by China (which accounts for 1/3 of demand worldwide) and India. And the reason that this is NOT "tempered by high prices" is that the consumers barely feel the price hikes thanks to massive government subsidies. As long as the governments of the nations who dictate the world oil demand protect their people from the harsh reality of the raw market, the people's demand will not decrease, and is thus likely to continuing its exponential rise, leaving us with the bank-breaking consequences.

Who's to say that China and India and the rest of the world have to develop their economies with gas/oil? Couldn't they look to go electric or at least relatively clean energy earlier on, and learn from the mistakes of the US?

Perhaps this is a "things that make you go hmmmm...."

Local media this week did a bunch of stories about gas prices will go up about $0.10 cents a gallon today for the Memorial Day Weekend.

AND, then they did a bunch of stories about lines at local gas stations of people trying to save $0.10 cents a gallon by purchasing their fuel last night instead of today.

At some stations, reportedly the lines were a half-hour-long. People were primarily topping off for the weekend, so average sale was less than 1/4 tank. And, they were of course idling while waiting.

Let's run some numbers of two of the cars waiting in one line last night.

Ford Explorer, idle GPH 0.5, fuel consumed in line 0.25 gallons. 1/4 tank = 6 gallons.
0.25 * $3.79/gallon = $0.95
6 gallons * $0.10 "savings"/gallon = $0.60
BOTTOM LINE ($0.35)

Honda Civic, idle GPH 0.25, fuel consumed in line 0.125 gallons, 1/4 tank = 3.25 gallons
0.125 * $3.79/gallon = $0.47
3.25 gallons * $0.10 "savings"/gallon = $0.33
BOTTOM LINE ($0.14)

So, *not* only did the typical fill *lose* money, and lost a half hour of time, but they burned 1/2 quart to a quart of fuel doing so.


-mr. bill

I bought a locking gas cap for my Mariner hybrid. It fits really nice. Not to hard to replace the lanyard on the cap either. Now I just have to find one for my wife's HHR. People will soon be siphoning gas, but they won't get mine easily.

Who's to say that China and India and the rest of the world have to develop their economies with gas/oil? Couldn't they look to go electric or at least relatively clean energy earlier on, and learn from the mistakes of the US?

Because there is no form of energy cheaper than coal and oil. If China were required to meet all of the environmental requirements that the U.S. and most of Europe is, they couldn't sell us all the cheap crap that they do.

This is why China and India and other emerging countries are not being targeted for their emissions or consumption.