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Cyclical or long-term trend? "Deserts" are the dark areas on map (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23484358/)

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/OCEAN_DESERTS.jpgMSNBC - March 6, 2008

Much of our food supply is in the balance - Ed

Warming sea surface waters are causing the oceans' deserts — the least biologically productive areas — to expand much faster than predicted, researchers reported Wednesday.

Federal government and University of Hawaii scientists said that this change could be tied to global warming and stands to negatively impact the populations of many fish species.

"The fact that we are seeing an expansion of the ocean’s least productive areas ... is consistent with our understanding of the impact of global warming," co-author Jeffrey Polovina, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said in a statement...http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23484358/

Surface water pH has fallen by about 0.1 also, from the uptake of atmospheric CO2. This could be the beginning of bad news for all the little floaty-thingees that build their shells out of calcium carbonate. They make it while the sun shines, and it dissolves away at night.

DAS

http://img201.imageshack.us/img201/2448/sstweekcwn2.gif

Here's one similar to the picture Delta Flyer uploaded, except this one also has the departures from normal.

Lamebuns, I just want to say that Pacific surface water temperatures are strongly influenced by "El Nino", the almost-periodic sloshing E and W of hot water near the equator. It is of great interest, but not yet knowable, whether the timing or intensity of this process might be altered by directional climate change.

One thing for sure though. If the next 'warm phase' is stronger than 1998, the Panama Canal (which is run by rainfall in part of that country) may greatly curtail operations during the late dry season (Feb/Apr). Since so much money moves through there, I expect that will get peoples' attention.

DAS

The cold area in the middle is from La Nina, actually, I think - but it also highlights the warmer area at the western end of the ocean.

It would have been better for me to say ENSO - the El Nino southern oscillation. We are indeed presently in the cold phase of ENSO, or La Nina. Here's seasonal data since 1950:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

and the predictions for the rest of 2008 are, well, all over the shop:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure5.gif