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View Full Version : Honda boss skeptical about PHEVs


xcel
12-19-2007, 04:12 AM
"I do not understand why people see value in plug-in (hybrids). I cannot understand the rational for (developing) plug-ins." (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jAZaBm_Ete53zUxbO-_kU7odb6zQ)

http://www.cleanmpg.com/photos/data/501/Clean_Diesel_CEO_Fukui.jpgAFP – Dec. 19, 2007

President and CEO of the Honda Motor Company Takeo Fukui in front of a European Accord (TSX) diesel research automobile.

In Europe, gasoline to drive 40 miles is $9.00. Much cleaner Electricity costs $1.00. Get it now? -- Ed.

TOKYO - The head of Japanese automaker Honda Motor Co. said Wednesday he saw no value in developing plug-in hybrid vehicles.

But Honda president Takeo Fukui said he expects competition in conventional petrol-electric hybrids to shift into high gear in the coming year amid growing demand for fuel-efficient vehicles.

"Until now, the hybrid vehicle business has been about creating impressions and images among potential buyers, and not about producing profitable vehicles at affordable prices," he told the group's annual year-end press conference.

He acknowledged that rival Toyota Motor Corp. had made headway with its popular Prius hybrid, but added that the "real competition" begins now.

Honda will introduce a model in 2009 that will only be available as a hybrid, like the Prius, in a bid to highlight the technology, Fukui said.

A new sports hybrid, based on the CR-Z, which was introduced at the Tokyo Motor Show, would also be launched globally sometime in the next few years, he added.

But Fukui said he saw no significant value in researching plug-in hybrid models, which can be recharged by connecting to a power plug.

Such systems would require significant improvement in the capacity, weight, and size of batteries, motors, engines, and other components, he said… Toyota as well as various research institutes and electric companies are currently developing plug-in hybrid technologies as cleaner alternatives to conventional vehicles… http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jAZaBm_Ete53zUxbO-_kU7odb6zQ

msantos
12-19-2007, 08:32 AM
If Fukui consulted with the "shrine of Soichiro Honda" then I am OK and I will align with his perspective.

If he did not then he's just another "qualified" character in a world of opinions. In other words, only history will tell if he's wrong or very wrong. ;)

Cheers;

MSantos

Right Lane Cruiser
12-19-2007, 08:52 AM
Okay, this just baffles me. How could anyone not think that the long term future of transportation is electric? I hear froo-froo about hydrogen but aside from being ridiculously cost ineffective for all sorts of reasons, fuel cells are used to drive what is really just an EV. If you want zero emissions your options are hydrogen or electric. Hm. Which one is more achievable??

And if we accept that transportation really does have to go electric eventually, how do we get there? Gosh, what about these plug in hybrid thingies I keep hearing about? Wouldn't that let us deal with the current short range in a productive manner as a BRIDGING TECHNIQUE?

I hope you'll forgive the sarcasm. This hand waving is really starting to get to me. SOMEBODY is going to have to take the plunge and right now it seems most everyone is too chicken to do so. I hope to heavens GM can deliver on time and on spec because they are the only ones who are at least aimed (series hybrid) exactly right from my point of view.

Series hybrids should have hit the market a good 10 years ago.

atlaw4u
12-19-2007, 08:53 AM
How can you not see the value in plug-in hybrids?

noflash
12-19-2007, 09:26 AM
Maybe it's because Toyota beat him to the "hybrid-that-can-run-on-electricity-only" patent.

Plug-in would have limited benefit on the IMA system.

xcel
12-19-2007, 10:08 AM
Hi All:

___Although I did not get “into it” with Stephen Ellis (Honda’s FCV lead), I wish I had. The Clarity is packed with Li-Ion’s as a buffer although the CAP was not released nor do I suspect it will be for some time to come. Either way, it begs to be plugged in. Problem however is you have the head of “THE” major corporation that can develop something akin to magic out of thin air overnight saying it is not going to work so guess which way his companies R&D is directed :(

___I will try and find the Honda press release on this from a few months back although it may have been a Japanese newspaper story and Ellis assured me that Fukui was mis-quoted wrt PHEV’s vs. FCV’s in the translation a number of times causing the above to appear again???

___NoFlash, if Honda could have clutched IMA, bingo. 13HP motor to power the Insight under all electric. Maybe not like the 67 from MG2 in a Prius but oh what we could have done with that 13 in her 1,900 pounds ;)

___Good Luck

___Wayne

Right Lane Cruiser
12-19-2007, 10:24 AM
Clutched IMA with a beefier battery pack sure sounds like the ticket to me. I'm still hoping this is what they've got in store for the "global small hybrid."

Chuck
12-19-2007, 10:29 AM
http://www.youtube.com/v/MZVSQ3bvI10

BailOut
12-19-2007, 10:34 AM
Man... now even Honda is making me upset. I have nowhere left to go. :(

Oh, well. I was planning on doing a few home brewed EV conversions anyway.

Robert Lastick
12-19-2007, 12:10 PM
The plug in electric car WILL BE the undisputed king of the short trip when it shows up. The short trip is the biggest gas guzzler of all because you usually start and finish these trips with a cold engine.

Because of that, most of these short trips offer absolutely no hope for you to even get close to the cars potential MPG. You usually end up paying 3 times in gasoline what you paid for what you went to get. For me yesterday it was a box of Corn Starch for my wife.

In my opinion plug in vehicles will dramatically reduce our dependence on oil because most of our junkets (most of mine anyway, except for my commute to work) are short trips.

Why can't the Honda CEO see that?????? Don't take a rocket scientist to see that, does it?

koreberg
12-19-2007, 01:26 PM
Because a large portion of people who make the short trips, might not have an outlet free to plug in their cars.

Can't wait to hear the headlines, where someone ran an exstension cord to their car and some animal chewed on it, shorting out the electronics...

Right Lane Cruiser
12-19-2007, 01:55 PM
Excellent video find, Chuck.

Koreberg, there are also headlines about gas leaks, etc from conventional vehicles. Honestly, I can't see the odds of the cord being chewed on as any greater than the typical car with an EBH installed.

As for not having an outlet, those people probably wouldn't buy one of these immediately. After the population of these things grows there will probably be pressure to have more outlets installed. I was told just the other day that the Minneapolis area used to have outlets everywhere so people could plug in an EBH -- most cars at that time had really significant problems starting in very cold temperatures so this was needed. The technology and cold starting characteristics got better and now sadly, most of those outlets have been removed. They were put in back then because of demand -- why wouldn't they be put in now due to similar demand? There are already parking meters -- just integrate a power meter and charge some rate for it if you like.

I still think the obstacles to adoption of this tech are way smaller and far fewer than what we face with alternatives. We should just go for it.

msantos
12-19-2007, 01:57 PM
...
Why can't the Honda CEO see that?????? Don't take a rocket scientist to see that, does it?


Hummm... maybe because he is unlike most CEO's?


If I had to recall every bit of BS that most CEOs spew (starting with Lutz and ending with Gnosh) I would have plenty of examples to go around and reasons not to take Takeo seriously. But he's definetly not one of them at all.

I have a great deal of respect for fellow carrer engineers, particularly folks of his humility and technical competence... and despite the usual counter arguments many of them already made thus far in this thread, I recognize and agree with at least some of his reasoning.
It is on this basis that I will give Takeo the benefit of the doubt because he's not only a bright engineer but also a person who dedicated his life career to Honda. And those credencials especially in light of the human falability factor we all carry, are the primary basis of credibilty that I personally choose.

On a more collective tone, I would say we let history unfold once again and we'll discuss the results afterwards ;)

Cheers;

MSantos

Right Lane Cruiser
12-19-2007, 02:14 PM
Hummm... maybe because he is unlike most CEO's?
...
On a more collective tone, I would say we let history unfold once again and we'll discuss the results afterwards ;)

Sound advice. Too bad the wait will be quite long!! :(

Earthling
12-19-2007, 03:22 PM
His market research may indicate that most people don't want a car they have to plug in. That was the first question most people leveled at me when I told them I bought a Prius, "Yeah, but don't you have to plug it in?"

Harry

xcel
12-19-2007, 03:39 PM
Hi Manuel:

___Lutz and Ghosn sure win the booby prize wrt past statements about hybrids. Along similar lines, Honda has proven their point as suregiven more then a few hundred million in Hybrid development has been lost over the past 10 years? Adding insult to injury, creating the Clarity FCV this early on in the game with all the electronics including two means of propulsion while in the same presentation stating that PHEV’s are not a viable solution due to all the electronics does not make any sense to me :confused:

___I respect Fukui like no other CEO given he has had a hand in bringing us some of the most fuel efficient automobiles we (US citizenry) have had the chance to own and drive let alone that iCDTi in Europe. It is the latest PHEV idea that has me questioning Honda’s future. Mr. Ellis did tell me that a lot of what this article spoke of was taken out of context just as the last one was but I do not see much hope myself?

___I wish I had half the inside info, Honda contacts and work partners that you do :(

___Good Luck

___Wayne

WriConsult
12-19-2007, 03:49 PM
RLC, I grew up in Minneapolis in the 70s. I don't remember outlets in public locations being terribly widespread then, although some companies provided them to their employees (or at least upper managers, as I specifically recall at one company). But lots of people (I'm tempted to say nearly a majority) plugged in their EBHs for the night when at home. Almost everyone who owned a Ford did so. Things have probably changed since then, but at the time Fords were the first vehicles to start having trouble starting when the mercury dropped below 0. I've helped jump started more Ford products than everything else combined.

Back on topic: I guess Honda has decided the costs of a bigger motor and battery (to make IMA system effective in a PHEV -- I'm ignoring the 2nd clutch since I assume that will be part of next gen IMA anyway) aren't going to pay off for them in terms of profit margins. Too bad.

aca2983
12-19-2007, 04:16 PM
I have to agree. The advange of internal combustion cars is they're "untethered".

Plus, I live in a city and don't have off-street parking, so it would never work for me.

I think if plug-ins did take off, there would need to be improved efficiencies in the power grid.

xcel
12-19-2007, 04:33 PM
Hi Aca2983:

___The Grid being inefficient? Thermally, a plant can run in the 30 – 40% range and provide a clean source of electricity for $0.01 - $0.02/kWh range. There is not an engine made that can come close to the huge amount of power output at those kinds of costs and cleanliness. Nothing.

___Good Luck

___Wayne

lightfoot
12-19-2007, 04:56 PM
Whether PHEV's make sense really hinges on the batteries: capacity, weight, charge time, longevity, and cost. And even if batteries that meet these criteria can be made, will they be available to Honda (or anybody) due to licensing restrictions?

Trying to figure out what Honda is going to do or why they did what they did can be an impossible task. Sometimes I wonder if Honda themselves know! But I have to applaud them for their engineering creativity.

Here's another example of Honda perplexing-ness from a different arena: motorcycles. Honda built a very successful 990cc V5 for MotoGP racing. I've been wondering for ages why they didn't produce a street-legal replica or graft a detuned version of that engine into the VFR Interceptor line (which was their technology showcase, with a 780cc V4, side radiators, VTEC, linked proportioned brakes, single sided rear swingarm, etc). They could have mounted GP-like bodywork onto the Interceptor.

So now Ducati just came out with a race replica of their MotoGP bike, essentially the race bike with mufflers and revised bodywork for lights. According to Cycle World, they originally figured on a production run of 200, got 500 orders right off, now have >1200 orders, and will probably sell all of the 1500 they are making. At $72,500 EACH in the US, 65,000 euros in Europe.

Honda probably had some excellent reasons for not going this route, and we'll probably never know what they were.

mulad
12-19-2007, 05:25 PM
Heh, WriConsult, your story reminds me of when my uncle moved from North Dakota to California back in the '80s. People asked him about the power plug hanging out of his grille for the block heater and thought he had an electric car :-)

I'll have to do a quick walk around the parking lot at work someday, but I think block heaters have largely disappeared at this point, at least for people who live in the more urban areas. But yeah, I live in an apartment and wouldn't have anywhere to plug in even if I had a heater.



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