04-10-2006, 06:09 AM
...on the front page of the website!
04-10-2006, 08:25 PM
I have to take issue with them acting like the 54 cent import tariff is the major obsticle. The major problem is that the US already produces more ethanol per year than Brazil does, and we're on track to increase our output to a lot more than them. Pretty soon here, they'll be small peas compared to our domestic output anyway and importation will be kind of irrelevant.
04-11-2006, 05:45 AM
Pretty soon here, they'll be small peas compared to our domestic output anyway and importation will be kind of irrelevant.
agreed, though they are talking about the immediate market- the source of the tariffs is domestic pressure from sugar and corn lobbies. Good/bad, depends on your economics, and is irrelevant in this context- it exists. A number of people have been trying without much success to bring tankers of Brazilian etoh here. (I am reminded of Kramer and Newman's "Michigan bottle scam")
I think the point they were making is that if the tariff wasn't so steep, chances are good that it would relieve some of the near-term price pressure on the commodity price of ethanol here (look at the front page of this site!), if not on gasoline directly (most of the new gas price surge is anticipation of retooling and adjusting the infrstructure- not from direct cost of the ethanol yet)
04-11-2006, 04:39 PM
Personally I think price surges are great. It's like that old saying about how if you drop a frog in a pot of boiling water he'll hop out, but if you put him in a pot of cold water and boil it, he'll stay in until he dies. Pricing is real similar; I hardly heard a peep as prices went from $1 to $1.75 over the course of 3 years of slow creeping, and just a little static when we broke through $2/gal. However, the sudden spike over $3/gal (which is half as much a gain, percentage-wise) spurred massive public discussion and perhaps changed at least a few peoples' minds about plus-sized vehicles. I think a quick, couple month price spike to $4/gal and back down to $2.50/gal would be very beneficial long term.
04-11-2006, 07:11 PM
sort of twisted, but I agree with you. Its like growing up, I always had this sense of being let down when the Nor'easter blew a little too far or close to shore, and we only got 8 instead of 18 inches of snow.
If its gonna hit the fan, let it REALLY hit the fan- to a point. Of course, taking that train of thought too far is catastrophic. But within limits, a little extreme one way or the other makes life interesting. Twisted, but I've never been accused of being entirely normal, either.
And you're right- a shock to the system is sometimes the only way to stimulate action.
04-11-2006, 08:33 PM
There's a twisted, sadistic part of me that thinks the same way. Why else would I log on to gasbuddy at least once a day and make sure that the red arrow is still pointing up? I groan a little bit but that's just for show.